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The Five Step Plan to Winning with a Small Market Club…Yes, it can be done.

By Gary Armida

The hot stove league is a baseball fan’s favorite time of year. How will my team “fix” itself and be the next Colorado Rockies? The contract offers are out there, the trade rumors grow every day, and we hang on to every word the great Peter Gammons has to say. The problem is that there are a handful of teams that really have no shot at getting anyone of significance and are doomed to be basement dwellers once again. These are what baseball fans know as the dreaded small market teams. Teams like the Pirates, Rays (no more devil!), Reds, and Royals really have no realistic chance of making the postseason in 2008. Better run small market teams like the A’s, Twins, Brewers (can you believe they are on the “better run” list?), and NL champion Rockies, all have a shot at the postseason if things go right. So, what about those four never-will-be teams? While Billy Beane made “Money Ball” a popular way to go in baseball, it has not truly succeeded in bringing home a championship or consistently making the playoffs. The Red Sox do not count as they have a bajillion dollar payroll. Instead of signing free agents who would be bench players on other teams, the small market clubs should go in another direction. Luckily, if they are reading this, the five step plan will be laid out for them. Here’s how to win in the small market:

1. Speed kills and it’s undervalued.  Money Ball requires a team to get guys who have high on base percentages and hit for some power. The theory does not approve of stealing bases and sacrifice bunting as it does lead to some “give away” outs. While there is truth, Money Ball offenses that don’t have David Ortiz or Manny Ramirez, often lack the big homerun hitters as they are too expensive for the small market teams. If one takes a look at the top eight homeruns leaders from 2007 (ARod, Fielder, Howard, Pena, Dunn, Holliday, Ortiz, Thome), their combined salaries were 67.7 million dollars. In comparison, the top eight stolen base leaders (Reyes, Pierre, H. Ramirez, Byrnes, Crawford, Roberts, Figgins, Rollins) had a combined salary of 35 million dollars. While it is true that ARod made 22 million last year, youngsters such as Prince Fielder ($415,000), Ryan Howard ($900,000), Carlos Pena ($800,000), and Matt Holliday ($4.4 mil) are all going to get hefty raises for the upcoming season. The stolen base leaders, with the exception of Hanley Ramirez (a nice raise from $402, 000 is coming) are all signed for reasonable money. Jimmy Rollins at 8 million and Juan Pierre at 7.5 million are almost half of the top eight, salary wise. Speed is most definitely cheaper than power.

The “Track Team” theory is hardly new. The Cardinals of the 80’s with Vince Coleman (pictured) and Willie McGee had a lot of success with only one power hitter (Jack Clark). They ran teams out of the stadiums and went to a couple of World Series. The Track Team would be cheap, exciting, and endearing to fans. When was the last time a Pirates fan had anything to be excited over? Imagine coming to the park knowing that your team, win or lose, was going to play an exciting brand of baseball. Here’s a sample lineup using some of the stolen base leaders.

Juan Pierre-CF
Shane Victorino-RF
Chone Figgins-3B
Brian Roberts-2B
Eric Byrnes-LF
Adam Laroche-1b
Ryan Theriot-SS
Gerald Laird-C
Pitcher

Bench: Joey Gathright, Carlos Gomez, Jason Bartlett, Xavier Nady, Carlos Ruiz.

That offense will cost you a grand total of 27 million dollars. Now, we could go cheaper here as Pierre makes 7.5 million of that total. But, we’ll take his speed. That 27 million would definitely be cheaper if the plan was put into place as each team would be grooming its own players. The great point here is that speed is undervalued which would allow a small market team to be able to sign their offensive guys (which, unfortunately can’t happen with the pitchers). Another important aspect to the offense is to realize that first base and catcher are two spots where there is not a whole lot of speed. This is where some power and a cheap salary come into play. So, being a small market team, we decided to take Pirates tandem at first to give us a nice platoon, and we took two undervalued (i.e. cheap) catchers. So for the grand total of 27 million dollars the Pittsburgh Pirates could have an exciting, fast lineup with a versatile bench.

2. Power Arms and a deep Pen. This is where a commitment to scouting and a will to make the tough decisions come into play. In every draft, the focus must be on power arms. A team can cover a lot of faults by having guys come in throwing 95+ miles per hour. Here’s what a small market team must do. Their starters must be drafted out of high school and their projected relievers must be drafted from the college ranks. Here’s the thinking here. For starting pitchers, an organization will want to limit their innings. Pitchers who go to big time college programs are often forced to throw heavy, intense innings, while the high school starters would be missing those college innings. This way, the organization can take the 18 year old pitcher, build up his arm strength, teach him a power sinker, and monitor the wear on his arm. The organization gets more mileage for its money.

Relievers should be drafted out of college. The club will need more major league ready arms in the pen. College relievers can get to the majors more quickly. They have had those intense experiences necessary to compete. Relievers need only one or two pitches so there would be less to work on. Again, a 95 MPH fastball can cover a lot of flaws. The bullpens should be deep, ideally seven men. Three lefties and four right-handers would be ideal. Take a look at the 2007 Cleveland Indians bullpen. They had seven quality guys and were able to mix and match. A deep bullpen is needed to compete on a nightly basis, especially when the offense will not blow too many opponents out. A group of young, inexpensive flame-throwers will help kill many a rally.

3. Follow The Kenny Rogers Rule. No, not the pitcher, the original gambler had it right. “You gotta know when to hold them, know when to fold them…” For a small market team, trading your soon to be free agent pitchers is an art-form. Billy Beane does this well as illustrated by the Mark Mulder deal. The small market team cannot wait too long for players to be lost as eventually they will get priced out of reach. The bullpen is the area that really needs to be paid close attention. Just take a look at what the Phillies gave 30 year old reliever, J.C. Romero-3 years 12 million. Obviously, if our bullpen does what it should, the pitchers are going to get serious money with relief pitching always at a premium and constantly being overpaid for the work given. So, ideally, the bullpen must be turned over every few years. With two years before free agency, relievers must be dealt for young, power arms and a player with speed. Thus, the process starts over again. Bullpens should be turned over as well in order to maintain competitiveness. If one looks at relievers, their performance from year to year is wildly inconsistent except for the few well-paid closers. Most have a shelf-life of dominance for two or three years.

Starting pitching is a bit trickier. It is a guessing game. If there is a pitcher that the organization thinks will be a stud, a long-term deal (at least buying out one or two years of free agency) could be done. If not, the same trading rules apply. Power arms and speed in and our guys who gave us a few good years out to make their money. A small market team cannot sign too many guys to long term deals. Eventually, the back-end of the contracts will cripple the organization.

4. Hire an enthusiastic, small-ball manager. Small markets need a manager who will push a game. The club will need someone who believes in running, bunting, hit and running, and the value of a platoon system.  The club needs a face to its franchise that gives the fans a reason to believe. Too many times clubs will hire managers based on previous major league experience or follow the “old boys network”. Or, worse, they will hire within the organization because he is a known quantity. This is exactly the wrong choice. These dead-end franchises need a new voice, a person who can change the culture, who will not be afraid to push the game.  Who is that guy? I don’t know. I guess I would look to the minor leagues and see what manager pushes his minor league team or find a young coach who would be open to doing that. The Track team is a risky game. Runners will be thrown out, bunts may not work, and the young pen may have an off night. The manager must believe in the system and be able to answer to the media nightly.  

5. Advertise. Sell your team’s style. Show the people that it will be an entertaining night of baseball. Fans don’t come to games because their teams are boring and they will lose close to 100 games a year. Why waste money on a hopeless product? If a fan has a reason to believe that they will see a fun, competitive product, he will lay down his money for the game. It is seen all over baseball. The Brewers had better attendance this year, as did the Rockies. Once their fans see more consistency, they will have consistent sell-outs. Give the fans some excitement and they will come.

So, that’s the five step plan to winning as a small market team. Speed, power arms, timely trades, a good manager, and promoting the team, will make the small market team a viable option for the playoffs and more importantly for the fans. It seems simple enough. Let’s put it this way, some teams can’t do any worse.

What’s your take? Can a small market team win this way? Fire back.