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  Three signs that your team doesn’t know what they are doing during free agency.

By Gary Armida

With the start of true free agency, hopes and rumors are at an all-time high. It marks a chance for a team to make a splash, add to its parts, or remake itself. Some teams can instantly be made a contender (see the 1996 Orioles), while some teams will select the wrong group of player and set the franchise back for many years (see the 1992 Mets).

In today’s market, teams are often forced with a tough decision on committing long term deals to somewhat average players. With the constant media scrutiny, little job security, and having to satisfy the fans, general managers are often forced to sign these average players to lucrative and often regretful contracts. Teams like the Pirates, Royals, Twins, Rays, and Marlins cannot afford these mistakes. Teams like the Orioles and Rangers make these mistakes frequently which are why they finish in the second division year after year.

If you are concerned about your team your team being clueless, look no further. Let’s look at the three signs that your team is truly clueless when it comes to free agency.

Your team signs middle relievers for three years. It happens every year. Teams will sign an effective middle reliever for three years at 4-6 million per year. We’ve seen it this year already with the Phillies as they signed J.C. Romero to a three year deal based off a few months of quality work. The Yankees, historically, are big offenders of this rule. Kyle Farnsworth, Paul Quantrill, and Tom Gordon are all guys who signed for long-term and either had one quality season or did not give the Yankees anything.  The Toronto Blue Jays gave a huge contract to B.J. Ryan. While he had a tremendous 2006, Ryan, overworked as a middle reliever for Baltimore, finally broke down in spring training, 2007. The biggest illustration of this is the 2007 Baltimore Orioles. In the span of a week, the Orioles signed Dannys Baez, Scott Williamson, Jamie Walker, and Chad Bradford for over 42 million dollars. What did that net the Orioles? It netted them the second worst bullpen ERA and the most bullpen losses in baseball.

Now that the proof is spelled out, let’s look closer. The fact is that middle relief pitchers are often unpredictable. Once they hit the free agent market, they are often overused and have very little in the tank. Middle relievers pitch more innings, in more back to back appearances than closers. Therefore, a middle reliever who is about to hit free agency for the first time is pretty shot, or his performance is unpredictable. Latroy Hawkins was a terrible reliever for the past few seasons, however he was a key to the late season Rockies surge. Do you know what type of performance he will give this season? Do you want to bet 15 million on it? Teams need to limit the years of a contract to one or two years. While some say this is unrealistic, look at teams like the Padres (read this), Red Sox, A’s, Angels. Typically, these teams build the pens from within or through trades. A good bullpen cannot be made through free agency. If your team is attempting to do this, they are clueless. So, if your team signs Scott Linebrink, Latroy Hawkins, Luis Vizcaino, or David Riske (although I think he is a relatively good risk) for more than one year, your team is in trouble.

Competing with your direct competition.

We should call this the Yankee rule as they have been the one team that has abused this most throughout their history. Most recently, it was Johnny Damon. Damon, while a good player,was a poor fit for the Yankees as they were replacing one weak-armed centerfielder with another weak-armed centerfielder. While Damon has value at the plate as a leadoff hitter, the Yankees can’t be happy that they have his contract for another two seasons. There were points last year when Damon was completely useless to his team. As it stands now, Damon will be one of the weakest starting leftfielders in baseball. He was signed as a direct shot at the Boston Red Sox. The main thought was “Hey, we help ourselves and hurt them at the same time.” There’s a reason why a team would let a free agent walk to its direct competition. The Sox saw the level of production, the erosion of skills and decided that four years was too much. This year, it seems that the Yankees could have interest in Mike Lowell as their first baseman. Again, he’s a good ballplayer, but his numbers away from Fenway are disturbing as well as his advancing age. Signing Lowell long-term because it will weaken the Red Sox is a poor idea. Hopefully reports of the Yankees’ declining interest is true.

Another form of this mistake is acquiring a player in the off-season because he does well against you. The Twins acquisition of Craig Monroe smacks of this. Monroe, a career .256 hitter, is a career .322 hitter against Minnesota. If the Twins are planning to have him be their everyday leftfielder, they will see that Monroe is not a .300 hitter. In free agency it would be like the Milwaukee Brewers signing Pedro Feliz to a big deal because he hit .324 with 3 homers against them last year. Feliz is a .250 hitter with a low OBP. He would be in Milwaukee too. Getting players for any reason other than they can help your team will only lead to failure.  

Signing someone because they’re the only one who will play for you or nobody wants them.

This last one is a bit tricky. The small market clubs or the clubs where any self-respecting free agent will never play (Hello Orioles!) do have to placate their fans with moves to show that they care about the teams. What usually happens is that these clubs will pick up guys that nobody wants long-term. The Royals did this with Reggie Sanders. Sanders, while a good player, was not getting three year offers from teams. The Royals offer this so they can get a reasonably priced player to show the fans that they are doing something. The fact is that Sanders’ presence on the team hindered the development of younger talent. The Orioles did this with Aubry Huff. Huff is a good player, but not worthy of the contract. If he was, a contender would’ve offered the same deal. The Twins are famous for this type of move with Rondell White being the most recent signings a few off-seasons ago, although their minor league system has been able to help the pitching staff. It is understandable that teams need to sign players. This, however, does more damage to the franchise than a negative publicity hit. Do you think the Nationals are happy with Cristian Guzman? They offer big money to a player that nobody else wanted. Why? Because, that’s the only way anyone will willingly play for the Nationals right now. These clubs would be better off playing their prospects instead of the aging veterans looking for one last payday (which one cannot blame them for). Fans would much rather watch a team with young kids fighting for a job rather than a veteran who has clearly lost a step or someone who would never start on contending team.

The Conclusion

The teams with the cash can survive if they make a few mistakes. The Yankees, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Dodgers have all made poor signings. The difference is that they can “eat” the big contract. The Tampa Bay Rays cannot. A team must be willing to take the negative publicity rather than sign players to show that something is being done. Teams must be smarter as to who they sign. Whether fans realize it or not, poor free agency is much worse than zero free agency.

There you have it. How does your team stack up?