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Are today’s pitchers less talented because they don’t finish games?

By Gary Armida

Baseball players are better athletes today than at any point in baseball’s long history. Players are stronger, faster, more durable, and more talented. Batters hit the ball harder and farther. Pitchers throw harder and throw more knee buckling breaking balls. Runners are faster; fielders are quicker and more agile. This applies to all areas of the game except one. The one area of baseball that has declined over the past thirty years is the complete game. Pitchers no longer go seven innings, let alone throw nine. One could quickly point to a lack of endurance or expansion as the reason, as most do. However, there are more pertinent reasons for the lack of complete games in major league baseball.

Complete Games for 1977, 1987, 1997, 2007

A quick glance at the chart shows a sharp decline in complete games since 1977. The complete game is a dying statistic as only one team posted more than ten complete games this season. The 1977 Baltimore Orioles threw more complete games than the entire National or American league did this past season.  Think of it another way-The American League threw 524 more complete games in 1977 than it did in 2007. Were the athletes better in 1977? No. Were the pitchers more durable? Maybe. Are there reasons why this might be? Definitely.

Money and Conditioning

One of the main reasons why pitchers do not throw complete games today is money. Organizations must sign pitchers to extraordinary contracts, even out of the draft. For instance, the Yankees drafted and signed Andrew Brackman for $3.3 million dollars this year. Other teams give similar bonuses (although not in the 3 million dollar range). For this reason, teams will limit the amount of innings given to their “bonus babies”. The thinking here is that pitchers only have a certain number of pitches in the arm, so the risk of working long, seemingly meaningless minor league innings outweighs the benefit of building arm strength. In the age of pitch counts, pitchers are not taxed to go beyond 80 pitches during a minor league game. Often, pitchers are shut-down towards the end of the season if they approach the predetermined innings limit.

Now, when a pitcher like Tim Lincecum, Phil Hughes, or Homer Bailey reaches the major leagues, he is on a strict pitch count and often is gone around the 5^th or 6^th inning, unless that pitch count is low. They are not conditioned to finish a game. Even more famous is the New York Yankees use of phenom Joba Chamberlain. The “Joba Rules” were instituted because  Joba was close to his innings limit for the season. The Yankees turned him into a reliever for August and September and had a litany of rules. Chamberlain was not permitted to pitch in back to back games if he threw more than one inning. While this was extreme (and effective), it illustrates the team’s fear of damaging a young pitcher’s arm. Teams usually wait a few years before they take the training wheels off of a pitcher and allow him to consistently go beyond 100 pitches. Once that is done, pitchers can go longer into games. The problem is that they can’t. The organization’s need to protect its investment has hindered the pitcher’s development. The pitcher has not built up the arm strength or the stamina to go the full nine innings. What a team is left with is a talented 6 inning pitcher.

A lack of arm strength can also be traced back to the little leagues. If one watches the Little League World Series, he will see 12 year olds throwing curveballs 80 percent of the game. This not only can injure a person’s arm, but it also impedes strength buildup. High School and College games no longer emphasize the fastball as it is more difficult to pitch to skilled batters who are swinging aluminum bats. Pitchers are forced to fool hitters more, which eliminates the use of the strength building fastball. A pitcher in the 1970’s and earlier threw predominately fastballs. Even during the 1980’s, pitchers like Roger Clemens were able to throw their fastballs 75 percent of the time. Now pitchers come to the majors with at least three pitchers to supplement the fastball. Quite simply, pitchers are not given the necessary tools to go deep in games.

Specialization and Pressure

The main culprit of there being a lack of complete games is the bullpen. During the 50’s and 60’s guys were mostly thrown into the pen because they were failed starters. Starters would often make relief appearances between starts for more work. (Yankee fans saw that this year with Andy Pettitte throwing an inning of relief early in the season. It was met with the typical “Torre has no idea what he is doing!”) Today, a good bullpen is stocked with relievers who throw 92-95+ mph fastballs from both sides and from multiple arm angles. The choice of bringing in a fresh arm or leaving in the weary starter is often a no-brainer. The baseball book, Three Nights in Auguststates that a batter will always choose to face a starter, even if he is 0 for 3 against him, late in a game rather than the flame throwing reliever. The hitters said that they are more comfortable with the known pitcher rather than facing someone who can “let it fly” for one or two batters. Opposing managers know this and will often use relievers to exploit match-ups or to keep hitters uncomfortable.

Modern bullpens are stocked with lefty-specialists or pitchers who are only conditioned to getting on type of hitter out. They are paid money so they must be used. When the situation arises, the manager must use them. This “playing the match-up” theory is quite popular today. It started in the 1980’s with the Tony Larussa Oakland A’s. Larussa employed a variety of relievers in specific roles. Rick Honeycutt was the lefty-specialist and Dennis Eckersley was the first one inning closer. With specific roles, managers are able to keep the bullpens fresher and are able to maximize their chances of winning a game. It is quite common to hear guys designated as “the 6^th or 7^th inning guy”, “The set-up man”, “The lefty-specialist”, and the “closer”. If a team has all of these parts in the bullpen, there is little need to tax the starter. Going nine innings is actually counterproductive in today’s game. A live arm is better than a tired arm any day.

Managers face scrutiny from the media, fans, and general managers over how the bullpen is used. If a manager has a decision to make, he will often opt for the reliever as it is more widely accepted. You can ask Grady Little about leaving in a starter for “too” long. Little actually had the audacity to keep his ace, Pedro Martinez, in a must-win game rather than go to his bullpen. One would never imagine a manager going to get Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Ron Guidry, or Nolan Ryan during a playoff game, even if his pitch count was high. That decision backfired and cost Little the job as the Boston Red Sox manager. A manager cannot leave his starter too long as he will be consistently second guessed. While that reason should not matter, it does. Baseball is played today in an age of instant information, highlights, and analysis. It is no longer just a box score.  

Conclusion

Yes, complete games are down today. They may eventually be as rare as a no-hitter or perfect game. Baseball fans, this is alright. The players of today are much more talented than the players of thirty years ago. If today’s pitcher was trained to go nine innings, he could do the same thing, possibly better. The modern athlete has not regressed so it stands to reason that pitchers have not regressed. Starting pitchers are not less willing to go the distance. They are actually restricted from finishing the game. Baseball has evolved into a specialty sport on the pitching side. Using pitchers for less innings is a strategy that keeps batters off balance and gives a team the best chance to win.

Pitchers are more talented than ever before. It’s just that the way they are used has changed. The complete game statistic may be dying, but the quality of pitching is not.