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Johan is not worth the price of admission…this year.

By Gary Armida

A pitcher as great as Johan Santana is rarely available when he is in his prime. In a rare case such as this, fans and media outlets will yell, “Trade whoever to get him.” We even read in the Fungos section here that the Yankees would be crazy not to deal Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, and Austin Jackson for the best pitcher in the game.

Upon further review, teams should call the Twins’ bluff and not trade for Johan Santana.

It sounds crazy, but the craziness is sound. Let’s look at it from the Twins’ perspective. They are really stuck. They just watched Torii Hunter leave for nothing in return. They are a small market team that, supposedly, cannot afford to pay high end salaries. They must get young players before their veterans leave. Now, the Twins are dealing with a fan base that is angry about losing their very popular center fielder. They do not want this to happen again, especially with a new ballpark being built with taxpayer money. But, here is the problem. The Twins cannot afford to give up Santana for anything less than that proposed deal with the Yankees. If they deal him for younger prospects, the team will not contend for at least three seasons. That’s not exactly the blueprint for keeping the fans happy when opening a new park. The Twins have to get young players ready to contribute right away. In statements made thus far, the Twins organization talks as if they are in control. The only control they have is if they pony up the $150 million and sign Santana to his desired six year contract (which they can do if they wanted). If not, they are faced with a trade or watching the best pitcher in baseball walk away for nothing. The Twins have zero bargaining power other than to get teams like the Yankees and Red Sox scared that the other will acquire him.

From the other side, there are a few arguments that favor trading your top prospects for Santana. The most obvious reason is that he is the most dominate pitcher in baseball today. Secondly, he is a left handed ace. Thirdly, he will be turning 29 years old in March.

It all makes sense, right? You deal some prospects for the rock solid ace that your team lacks. Wrong! Here’s why-once you trade for him, you have to sign him, as if he was a free agent, to a six year deal worth at least $150 million. That alone is a deterrent for a team to give up top prospects. If teams didn’t trade for Santana this season, they would still be faced with that dollar amount when he hits the free agent market. The difference is that a team will still have their top prospects and still have an opportunity to sign Santana. Why should the Yankees trade Phil Hughes or the why should the Red Sox trade Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz when there is a good chance Santana could be a free agent the following season? You do not give up top, almost can’t miss prospects, for a guy who surely would hit the free agent market if he stays with the Twins this season. The Twins have all but conceded that they cannot resign him. In this case, a team willing to sign him as a free agent can have the cake and eat it too.

Another factor is the wear and tear on Johan Santana compared to the prospects a team would give up. In his eight major league seasons, Santana has thrown 1,308.2 innings. If he continues at a slightly slower pace for the next six seasons, that total will be over 2,400 innings at the age of 35. In the same time period, Phil Hughes (21 years old) or Clay Buchholz (23 years old) will throw the approximately the same amount of innings as Santana does (if not more due to youth) and still cost significantly less while being IN their prime at the ages of 27 and 29 respectively.

Yes, one can never tell if a pitcher will develop and we already know that Santana is dominant. But, it is also unknown if Santana will continue to pitch at a high level. 2007 was a bit of a decline for Santana as he gave up over 30 homeruns for the first time in his career and his ERA and WHIP were his worst in his four years as a full-time starter. While this could be an aberration, it could be an indication that his dominance will be slightly less than his first three outstanding years. Make no mistake, Santana is clearly the best in the game, but the gap between his dominance and other pitchers below him closed last season.  A team will be paying for his past dominance rather than current performance. If this was strictly a free agent signing that would be alright. However, teams not only have to pay, they must also give up ready-to-play prospects. They should not hurt their franchise by dealing away their young prospects who may be just as good as (or close) Santana over the next six years.

So, there you have it. The Twins should not trade Johan Santana because if the other teams are smart, they will not part with their top prospects. Minnesota has nothing in the hand they are dealt; they are bluffing. The best case scenario would be for them to keep Santana and pray that Francisco Liriano can dominate again. If those two can match their 2006 dominance, the Twins would be a contender for the World Series this season. Perhaps Santana reconsiders staying in Minnesota if they have a great season. Perhaps he walks away, but at least the Twins wouldn’t be the ones getting rid of him.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Angels should not out-think themselves. Dealing their top prospects who can contribute for quite some time for a pitcher who could be available for “just” money would be unwise. Some team will probably yield to the pressure and give the Twins what they desire. If the Twins can actually get one of them to deal those prospects they would’ve pulled off a major steal considering they really have zero leverage.