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One Year Makes a Difference

By Gary Armida

In this hot stove season dominated by the names of AROD and Johan, there is one big free agent that is quietly flying under the radar. This free agent is in the prime of his career, is a 10 year veteran, and is only 30 years old. During his career he has played in 17 postseason series and has hit .273 with 10 homeruns with a .364 OBP and .433 SLG in those games. He has a reputation as a good fielder (although he has declined recently), and has hit 368 career homeruns. This sounds like the premier player on the free agent market. Well, then why isn’t Andruw Jones being discussed by any baseball people?

Although it seems like Andruw Jones has been around forever and that he is a grizzled veteran, he is only 30 years old. Jones seemed poised to cash in as a free agent this winter after his 2005 and 2006 seasons during which he hit a combined 92 homeruns and slugged .571 and .533 respectively. As many know Jones suffered through a miserable 2007 in which he posted his lowest career numbers in many categories including a .413 SLG and a .311 OBP, and .724 OPS. With this disaster and a growing waist line, teams are more inclined to sign center fielders Torii Hunter (signed with Angels) and Aaron Rowand (still fielding offers) before looking at the 30 year old Jones even though Jones has consistently outperformed them every season except 2007. If one looks objectively, general managers may be missing the best free agent center fielder available because of one poor season.

2007 Comparison

Clearly, Jones had the worst season (and it wasn’t even close) out of the three big free agent center fielders. Sure, maybe he is one of those guys who will all of a sudden lose it. But, this season could be chalked up to a couple of things besides a loss of skills. One, some players do not deal with the idea of being a free agent too well. They feel the pressure and under perform. Of course, there could be “other factors” that may have impacted his success.  Because we live in the age of “what have you done for me lately?” Jones is being discarded as washed up and the weakest option. But, if one looks at each player’s average season, the story is a bit different.

Average Season Comparison

A look at these numbers shows that Andruw Jones is clearly the best of the three players. Perhaps the most telling statistic is Jones’ lead in OPS. It truly shows that he is the more productive hitter over his career. Whether you are a tradition numbers man or a Sabermatician, it cannot be denied that Jones is the best offensive option.

Now, age can be taken out of the conversation as Hunter is 31, Jones is 30, and Rowand is 29. What cannot be ignored is the fact that Jones, despite claims that he is eating his way out of shape, is the most durable. Since his first full season in 1997, Jones has not played in less than 153 games. Meanwhile, Hunter and Rowand have only played more than 150 games twice in their career. For a team to invest $90 million dollars into a player like the Angels did in Hunter (and what Rowand is expected to get) it would have to hope for a dependable, durable player. It seems as if the teams and media have forgotten that Hunter and Rowand have missed quite a bit of time. Again, one year, for the good or bad, does not make a career. Carl Pavano was healthy for a full season before he became a free agent.  That worked out pretty well, right?

Many baseball people say that Jones’ defense is a big reason why his stock has fallen below Hunter and Rowand. The problem with evaluating defense is that it is so subjective. There are not accurate measures, not even range factor, that can really show the true value of a fielder. This is why the Gold Glove award is so useless. What we are left with his somebody’s perception of a player’s fielding ability. True, Hunter may look more smooth, Rowand more gritty, but there is no discernible difference between the three of them in terms of performance in the field.

This is a case where perception is clouding reality (which was helped by an inopportune bad season). A year ago, it was assumed that Jones would set the market for the center field group. Now, he most likely will be the last signed. One positive for him is that Torii Hunter signed with the Angels, who were not in desperate need of a center fielder. So, teams like Texas, the Los Angeles Dodgers, or the Chicago White Sox will all still be in play. Perhaps agent Scott Boras will play this one smartly as Jones’ talent will be in high demand after lesser, albeit talented, players are off the market.

Whether Jones gets a long term contract or signs a one year contract to try to reestablish himself, he will provide his 2008 team with more production than Hunter or Rowand will provide their new teams. What a difference a year can make.