fullcountpitch.com

The Trade Scale

By Gary Armida

Welcome to the newest section of FullCountPitch.com that we like to call “The Trade Scale”. In this section, we will evaluate some of the trades made during the hot stove and regular season. The idea is not to declare a winner or loser per se, but to discuss if the trade will improve each team. So, without further adieu, let’s get the first edition out of the way.

The Minnesota Twins trade SP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett, and RP Eduardo Morlan to the Tampa Bay Rays for OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris, and OF Jason Pridie.

Twins Perspective: The Twins addressed a major need in acquiring a potential superstar bat. Delmon Young could be a major force behind Mauer and Morneau for many years to come. Most importantly, the cost conscious Twins control Young for the next five seasons. On the surface, Young’s rookie year looks like a disappointment with his .316 OBP, .408 SLG, his .724 OPS, 26 walks and 127 strikeouts. But, if one considers the fact that he 21 years old, an age when most prospects are playing at AA, and his dominance in the minors during his age 18-20 seasons, Young is a superstar in waiting. Consider that his career minor league numbers are .362 OBP, .518 SLG, .880 OPS with a .318 BA along with 59 career homeruns and 75 stolen bases. Remember, these are statistics put up as an 18, 19, and 20 year old. As Young matures as a man and a player, his strikeouts should reduce while gaining power. The Twins have a right fielder who can protect Mauer and Morneau for years. Harris and Pridie project long term as bench players. Harris does have a chance to be the starting shortstop this season.

FCP Impact Scale: 10/10: The Twins address a major need on offense and acquire the exact player a small market team needs-cheap, talented, young. Yes, they give up a solid pitching prospect, but the Twins have shown that they can develop pitchers like few other franchises can. 

Rays Perspective: The Rays did deal the best player in the trade in Young, but received the second, third, and fourth best players back. They also dealt from a position of strength as they have shown a propensity of developing offensive players and clearly lack pitching. With prospect Evan Longoria almost ready to take the scene, the offense will clearly be there with young stars Carl Crawford and BJ Upton. The Rays acquire talented 23 year old Matt Garza to slot behind Scott Kazmir and James Shields, giving the Rays their deepest rotation in their 10 year history. Garza projects as a solid number two pitcher. His minor league numbers suggest a pitcher with good control. In three minor league seasons (ages 21-23), Garza sported a 2.88 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. In 302.2 innings, he struck out 338 hitters. In his 24 major league appearances, the strikeouts and WHIP have not been consistent with his minor league numbers. Given Garza’s age and minor league numbers, the projection as a solid second starter is still there. 2008 will be his first full season in the major leagues as the Rays’ third starter. How big of an impact could Garza make? Well, in 2007, Kazmir and Shields combined for 25 wins, 425.2 innings, and a 3.65 ERA. No other starter on the Rays’ staff pitched more than 161 innings, won more than 6 games, or had an ERA below 5.76. Garza will have a huge impact on a staff if he just has a league average season. Jason Bartlett is an upgrade over Brendan Harris if he can reach his level of production from his minor league career. He is another guy who can run which adds to an already fast lineup. Morlan is a 21 year old former starter who found success last year in a relief role. Between high A ball and AA last season, Morlan threw 69.2 innings, struck out 99 and only walked 20.

FCP Impact Scale: 10/10: This is a start for the Rays. It was one of the first smart trades made in the team’s history. Garza will not be as dominant as Young, but the Rays needed to build their pitching. The team improved its staff, added a potentially league average shortstop, and added a hard throwing reliever who could help the team in 2009.

FCP Winner: It’s a cop-out, but this one is a tie. Both teams addressed needs by dealing from a position of strength. If you believe that the team who receives the best player wins the trade, then you believe the Twins won. This deal hinges on the development of Young and Garza, but this was a smart baseball trade by both sides.

The Mets Trade OF Lastings Milledge to the Nationals for C Brian Schneider and OF Ryan Church

Nationals Perspective: The Nationals trade for a player, who despite falling stock, still has the potential to be a quality major league hitter. During his minor league career, Milledge posted decent numbers with a career .306 BA, .380 OBP, .480 SLG, and a .860 OPS during his 18-22 year old seasons. He has spent parts of the past two seasons with the Mets compiling a .257 BA, .326 OBP, .414 slugging, and a .740 OPS. Milledge is only 23 years old so those numbers could rise as is expected with fellow prospect Delmon Young. The difference between Milledge and Young is that Milledge has not posted those dominant seasons in the minors like Young has. The Nationals acquire an outfielder with potential for a declining catcher and a 29 year old outfielder with limited upside. The Nationals are a team that should take a chance on a player such as Milledge, who just a year ago was a prime target in trade talks between the Mets and A’s. Milledge is a centerfielder who seems destined for a corner spot. At 22, there is plenty of room for growth. Getting out of the intense media scrutiny of New York may ease that development.

FCP Impact Scale: 7/10: This move is not going to make the Nationals a .500 team this season or anytime soon. What this does is give the Nationals more payroll flexibility and a 22 year old outfielder who could develop into a solid player.

Mets Perspective: The Mets seem desperate for a catcher. They already tried to sign Yorvit Torrealba and then traded for Johnny Estrada. Now the Mets get their real starting catcher in Brian Schneider. The 30 year old lefty is said to work well with pitchers and to be a solid defensive catcher, although some baseball people suggest he has lost a step. With a career slugging percentage of .377 and a career OPS of .700, Schneider will not make an impact on the Mets offense. However, paired in a platoon with Ramon Castro, he could prove to be effective as he has more power against right handers. Meanwhile, 29 year old lefty outfielder Ryan Church is an instant upgrade for the Mets as they suffered through a full season with Shawn Green in 2007. Church should be played in a strict platoon as he has a career .823 OPS against right handers as opposed to a .723 against left handers. His homerun totals are even more pronounced as he has hit 32 of his 35 career homers against right handed pitching.

FCP Impact Scale: 4/10: The Mets take a slight decrease in offensive production in the catcher position going from Paul LoDuca to Brian Schneider. Church could be an adequate player in a platoon situation, but the potential of Lastings Milledge is too great to give up for this package. What further damages the Mets here is that Schneider’s numbers are eerily similar to Johnny Estrada’s. Omar Minaya stated on New York talk radio today that acquiring a starting catcher was a necessity. It seems he acquired a remarkably similar player to the one he is about to non-tender. Why give up on a 22 year old for a player you already had and a serviceable outfielder?

FCP Winner: The Nationals… and it’s not even close. The Nats unload two players who have limited to zero upside for a 22 year old outfielder who needs time to develop. They would be smart to just throw him in the lineup everyday and watch him blossom. The Mets may have ripped the Brewers off by unloading Guillermo Mota on them, but this is worse. They gave up on a 22 year old that they were trying to trade for Dan Haren or Eric Bedard. This is a no lose situation for the Nationals because even if Milledge disappoints, they did not give up much to get him.