The Trade Scale: Oakland/Arizona
The Trade Scale
By Gary Armida
Welcome to the FCP section, “The Trade Scale”. In this section, we will evaluate some of the trades made during the hot stove and regular season. The idea is not to declare a winner or loser per se, but to discuss if the trade will improve each team for 2008 and beyond.
The Oakland A’s Trade SP Dan Haren and RHP Connor Robertson to the Arizona Diamondbacks for OF Carlos Gonzalez, LHP Brett Anderson, OF Aaron Cunningham, 1B Chris Carter, LHP Greg Smith and LHP Dana Eveland.
D-Backs Perspective: The D-Backs put themselves right at the forefront as a favorite for the 2008 National League Pennant with this trade. They do not give up a single player that figures into their 2008 plans for a pitcher with an excellent track record, a history of leading a staff, and someone who projects to get better. Haren, 27 years old with two years remaining on an extremely cheap contract, will slot in as the number two pitcher in the D-Backs rotation behind Brandon Webb. Haren was remarkably consistent during his three seasons in Oakland starting 34 games each season, throwing at least 217 innings each season, and having a WHIP in the 1.206 range.
Going to the National League should lift Haren’s statistics a bit. As of this moment, one can make a strong case that Dan Haren is a top five pitcher in the National League ranking behind (in no particular order) Jake Peavy, Roy Oswalt, and teammate Brandon Webb and being in the discussion with starters like Carlos Zambrano, Aaron Harang, and Chris Young. Arizona elevates itself by having a potent 1-2 combo with Webb and Haren. It lengthens their rotation and also puts pressure on other contending teams to perhaps make a run at Erik Bedard or Johan Santana. Connor Robertson is a 26 year old right hander who doesn’t figure to make the Diamondbacks.
The lone downside to this deal is that Arizona really mortgages the future in giving up quite a few of their top prospects. However, they are not acquiring a grizzled veteran; they are acquiring a starting pitcher who is just about to enter his prime and who they have under control for at least the next two seasons.
FCP Impact Scale: 10/10: It is not often that a team acquires a difference maker without giving up anything from their pool of potential players who could help during the season. The Diamond Backs now have a slightly lesser version of their Johnson-Schilling combination that led them to their World Series title in 2001. Webb and Haren are one of the best 1-2 combinations in the league (right up there with San Diego’s Peavy and Young). This trade makes them the favorite in the ever improving National League West.
A’s Perspective: Billy Beane pulls off another trade where some experts will always question if he got enough. It is past the point where Beane should be second guessed. Beane acquires six players with two who are potential stars, three potentially serviceable players, and one left handed pitcher who should have better major league numbers based on his minor league success.
The potential stars are OF Carlos Gonzalez and LHP Brett Anderson. Gonzalez, 22 years old, is a left handed hitter who is an excellent right fielder. According to a dozen or so websites, Gonzalez is a batter who possesses very quick hands. He should develop into a good power hitter as evidenced by his 288/.336/.478 line between AA and AAA. He does not fit, however, the A’s usual profile for a hitter as he is not a high walk total guy. Perhaps a full year in AAA will help him learn the “Money Ball” approach. Anderson, on the other hand, seems to be the player who will be the jewel of the trade. He is a 19 year old who just completed his first season between A ball and high A ball. The 6′4 lefty went 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 121.1 innings. In those innings he struck out 125 hitters and walked just 21 batters. It may be a year or two before we see Anderson on the major league level, but he projects to be a solid number two or possibly a number one if he exceeds expectations.
The potentially serviceable players include Cunningham, Carter, and Smith. Aaron Cunningham is a 22 year old outfielder who finished up 2007 in AA ball. In three minor league seasons, Cunningham has a .304/.378/.482 line with 33 career homeruns (16 coming last season) and 54 career stolen bases (which mean nothing in a Money Ball scheme). He projects to be a quality fourth outfielder or possibly an average starting outfielder. Given Oakland’s depth in the outfield, Cunningham is a candidate to be traded again or he needs some people ahead of him to be traded in order to receive his chance in a couple of years. Chris Carter is a right handed first baseman with power. In 2007, at the age of 20, Carter finished with a .291/.383/.522 line with 25 homeruns. He does have a high strikeout rate, but he did walk 67 times last season. Carter has potential, but he won’t be seen, most likely, until 2010. Greg Smith, a 24 year old left handed pitcher, finished last season in AAA, making him a likely candidate to contribute in Oakland later in 2008. According to various websites, Smith projects to be a fourth or fifth starter, but there is something about left handed pitchers with his numbers that makes me rate him a bit higher. His 9-5 record with 3.54 ERA and 1.29 WHIP between AA and AAA last season, along with a strong Arizona Fall League performance suggests a polished lefty who knows how to pitch.
The last player received is 24 year old left handed pitcher, Dana Eveland. Eveland has pitched in the major leagues for parts of the past three seasons (two with Milwaukee and one with Arizona). His major league success does not match his performance in the minor leagues. In his 64.1 major league innings he has an ERA of 7.44 and a WHIP of 1.959. That is in sharp contrast of his 413.2 minor league innings with an ERA of 2.61 and WHIP of 1.117. The one constant is Eveland’s strikeout rates as he strikeouts out nearly a batter per inning. If Eveland can put it together, he has the chance to be a solid starter or a very useful reliever. This was a good player for Beane to take a chance on.
FCP Impact Scale: 8/10: For now, this looks like a nice haul for the A’s. The great thing about this trade is Oakland doesn’t really get a “reach” prospect. There are quite a few chances taken here, but the prospects seem to project to be useful players. It helps give the A’s some depth that will help them in future trades, either as chips or players ready to step in. If Anderson develops into a number one or two pitcher, Beane wins this trade.
FCP Winner: For the short-term Arizona wins as Haren is a second ace who could lift Arizona to a World Series. If they are able to sign him to a long-term deal during the next two seasons, the trade is even more promising, despite giving up six solid prospects. Oakland rolls the dice on the quantity of players acquired. If Beane lives up to his reputation and previous judgment of talent, at least three of these players will develop into quality major leaguers. If that is the case, Oakland will have used Haren to fuel another run to the playoffs in two years. If so, this will be an even trade as both organizations get what they are looking for. But, for now, Arizona wins the trade as they take another step, a young, talented step, towards the elite in the National League.
