The Trade Scale: Rolen for Glaus

By Gary Armida

Will swapping third basemen help the Jays and Cards catch the rest of their respective divisions? Let’s run this trade through The Trade Scale. Although a “winner” is declared, the real purpose is to discuss if the trade will improve each team for 2008 and beyond.

The Toronto Blue Jays trade 3B Troy Glaus to the St. Louis Cardinals for 3B Scott Rolen

Cardinals Perspective: The Cardinals finally trade their “problem” in Scott Rolen. It has been widely reported for some time that manager Tony LaRussa did not get along with Rolen. It is quite surprising that they were able to trade Rolen and receive a comparable player in Troy Glaus. In Glaus, the Cardinals get an injury prone 31 year old third baseman who hits for a ton of power. Despite three injury plagued seasons during his 10 year career, his lowest homerun total has been 16. During his complete seasons, Glaus’ homerun totals are 29,47,41,30, 37, and 38. For his career Glaus’ batting line is .254/.358/.500. He is a hitter who tends to strikeout quite a bit, but also walk quite a bit. This kind of power is a welcome addition to a lineup that had no proven power hitter to protect Albert Pujols. Rolen is not the type of hitter that would strike the fear into a pitcher. Glaus’ power does strike that fear. In addition to gaining power with Glaus, the Cards may get a little more production out of their great slugger, Albert Pujols, who saw his numbers drop in 2007 without lineup protection.

While defensive reputation is often unreliable, Glaus represents a clear downgrade from Rolen for the Cards. With increasing foot issues, Glaus’ mobility was limited last season for Toronto. Cardinal pitchers will give up more hits with Glaus at the hot corner. Getting off of the artificial turf of the Rogers Centre will help Glaus, but it is still a downgrade.

An additional issue with Glaus is the steroids allegations that were reported by Sports Illustrated last season. Unfortunately, we live in an age where this is a fact of life. It shouldn’t be too much of an issue, but it still looms.

FCP Impact Scale: 8/10: The Cards do upgrade their homerun potential, but do get less of a hitter in Glaus. Glaus remains productive and under contract for two more seasons. While Rolen is a better all-around hitter, Glaus’ power better protects Albert Pujols as managers will not want to put runners on in fear of the two or three run homer. It is not inconceivable that he will miss significant time over the next two seasons, but he’s not exactly replacing the rock of reliability. The Cards do get deducted two points for the downgrade on defense. With a weak pitching staff, they could use all the defensive help they could get. The question is whether Glaus’ offense outweighs the defensive liability. If healthy, the answer is yes, as he is a legitimate slugger.

Blue Jay’s Perspective: Sometimes it seems as if the Blue Jays don’t have a plan. It almost seems that they will sign anyone and trade anyone. For this trade, the Blue Jays clearly upgrade their defense. It is quite possible that having Rolen instead of Glaus gives the Jays one of the best infield defenses in the game. With Roy Halladay and the Jay’s young staff, defense will be a great asset.

When healthy, Rolen is one of the most complete players in the game today. During seasons in which he has played at least 120 games, Rolen has hit at least 21 homeruns with a career high of 34 in 2004. He has driven in 100 or more runs in five of his 12 major league seasons. For his career, he is a .283/.372/.507 hitter. The Jays do get the better hitter in Rolen and do inject a bit more life and intensity in an otherwise bland clubhouse.

The key phrase in the last paragraph was “when healthy,” In the last three seasons, Rolen has missed 176 games due to injury. In two out of the last three seasons, Rolen has slugged less than .400. It is obvious that these injuries are robbing him of offense. The Jays do take a bit of a risk.

FCP Impact Scale: 7/10: The Blue Jays are in need of a shakeup as last year’s team often played listless. Bringing in a guy who wants to prove his former manager wrong does help in this regard. The upgrade on defense will be felt by the pitching staff. The obvious factor that hinders his impact is Rolen’s recent health history. The Blue Jays take on a heavy three year contract for a very risky player. If healthy, Rolen is a nice all-around upgrade. The Jays lose a bit of power, but Rolen’s defense more than makes up for it.

FCP Winner: This is one trade where there is no real winner, even though St. Louis does get a better impact score. St. Louis gets better protection for Albert Pujols, who would’ve been hitting in front of Chris Duncan or Rolen. The power of Glaus does help, but the defense suffers. Additionally, Glaus’ lack of doubles in comparison to Rolen will most surely slow a Cardinals attack. The Jays are taking a risk on an injury-prone player who helps the pitching staff out greatly. Rolen gives the Jays a good hitter, but does take away their one true 40 homer power threat. His penchant for extra base hits will move runners along in the Jay’s very solid lineup. He also comes with an extra year on his contract and being owed almost 34 million dollars. Rolen represents the riskier, albeit better player.

Both teams are taking a chance that a new third baseman with different skill sets can launch them back into contention. Because both players come with question marks, the trade scale is balanced.   

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