Good Team, Wrong Place…Again: The 2008 Toronto Blue Jays

By Gary Armida

Who are you when you are a good team with a potentially representative offense, a nice, young pitching staff, a good general manager, and absolutely no shot at going to the playoffs? Well, if you are alive and look at the logo to the left, you know that you are the Toronto Blue Jays. Blue Jays need to push for realignment in order to have a fair chance of making the playoffs. The Blue Jays believe in the power of “3″ as they have finished in third place eight out of the last ten seasons in the American League East. Sure, the Jays have been a mid-80′s win team, but having to play the Yankees and Red Sox 18 times a piece will do that to you. The Jays are hoping that 2008 is the season that they can overcome both teams. Sadly, while they have a good team, it doesn’t look like that will happen.

The 2007 Blue Jays finished 83-79, 13 games behind the division winning Red Sox and 11 games behind the second place Yankees. While 83 wins looks like an average total, they achieved this while losing their star closer, B.J. Ryan, having their third baseman and centerfielder play (Troy Glaus and Vernon Wells) hurt, and breaking in several young pitchers (Dustin McGowan, Jeremy Accardo, Shawn Marcum, Jesse Litsch, and Casey Janssen). The main problem with the 2007 version was the offense, or lack thereof. The Jays finished 10^th in runs scored, 9^th in homeruns, and 12^th in both batting average and on base percentage in the American League. The fact that they won 83 games is a testament to their young, talented pitching staff. The pitching staff finished 2^nd in ERA, 1^st in complete games, and 2^nd in runs scored against in the AL. If the pitching staff could’ve had the Yankees or Tigers’ offense, the team would have won over 100 games.

The Jays enter 2008 wondering if their young staff can keep up the pace and continue to develop and if their offense can produce better numbers.

The Blue Jays made some changes to their offense that they hope will upgrade their production. Third baseman Troy Glaus was traded to St. Louis for veteran Scott Rolen. To complete the St. Louis infield, the Jays signed shortstop David Eckstein to a one year deal. In swapping third basemen, the Blue Jays, potentially, lose some power but gain defense and a better all-around hitter. Rolen has missed significant time in two of the last three seasons, but if healthy he should provide a bit of an upgrade over Glaus. Additionally, the Jays were looking to change the culture of the clubhouse so going from Glaus to the bulldog-like attitude of Rolen should help. David Eckstein is a guy who stat-heads hate. The typical baseball analyst guy slogan for Eckstein is that he is gritty, gutty, and is a positive influence in the clubhouse. Stat-heads say that none of that can be proven. They’re right, but that doesn’t mean that the diminutive Eckstein doesn’t have that type of an impact as a member of two previous World Championship teams. Either way, Eckstein is an upgrade for the Jays offensively. His career line of .286/.351/.362 is much better than 2007 starting shortstop John McDonald’s .251/.279/.333 line of a season ago. Second baseman Aaron Hill will look to continue his development as one of the more underrated second basemen in the AL.  Last year, Hill hit .291/.333/.459 with 17 homers and 78 RBI. Look for Hill to crack the 20 homer barrier and increase his OBP. Besides Robinson Cano, there can be an argument made for Hill being the best second baseman in the American League (he’s in the discussion with everyone else, if you don’t want to go that far). First baseman Lyle Overbay returns after suffering through an injury plagued 2007. A healthy Overbay would be a huge upgrade for the Toronto offense. Veteran catcher Greg Zaun and recently acquired Rod Barajas will form a decent platoon behind the plate.

In all, the Blue Jays infield should give an upgrade in offensive production. Rolen will be a better all-around hitter than Glaus, although there will be a loss in homerun power. The middle infielders will out produce their 2007 counterparts. If Overbay is healthy, he will definitely give more production in ’08. All in all, the Jays can expect more production from their infield.

The outfield has one no-doubt performer in the person of right fielder Alex Rios. Quite simply, Rios is a budding star at 27 years old who will look to continue that upward climb in 2008. He finished 2007 with his best numbers to date with a .297/.354/.498 with 24 homers, 85 RBI and 17 stolen bases. Expect Rios to hit 30 homeruns this season and drive in 100 runs. He is the Blue Jays’ best hitter (sorry Vernon) and should make his third consecutive all-star appearance. Centerfield is again manned by Vernon Wells. Wells had a poor season, hitting .244/.304/.402 with just 17 homeruns. One of the Jays’ faults is their inability to tell the truth about player injuries. Wells did make a comment that he played 2007 hurt. If Wells is healthy expect him to be closer to the 2006 Wells with his .303/.357/.542 batting line. There are few nicer guys in the game of baseball, so expect Wells to bounce back. Right field looked to be a platoon of Reed Johnson and Matt Stairs. While Stairs is the lefty option, the Jays added a new candidate in the familiar Shannon Stewart. Stewart returns to Toronto trying to make the team and coming off a surprisingly good year in Oakland. Whoever is the right hand bat, expect a productive tandem. The DH is the underappreciated Frank Thomas. The Big Hurt will be 40 this season, but he can still swing the bat. Health is always a concern for Thomas, but he has remained so for the past two seasons. Expect his 2008 output to be similar to his 2007 output (.277/.377/.480).

In total, the Jays’ outfield should be quite strong. Rios is a player on the rise, Wells should return to form, and left field will give them reasonable production. Looking at the Jays’ total offense, they seem to have a lineup capable of high on base percentages, good power, and some speed. If they do not outperform the 2007 edition, it will be a big disappointment. As always, health is an issue, but it seems more so for the Jays. Rolen, Wells, Overbay, and Thomas all are injury risks. If they can remain healthy, the Jays will score runs.

The pitching staff is led by ace Roy Halladay. Doc Halladay won 16 games for the second consecutive year, but he did suffer through a down season (by his standards). Although he pitched 225.1 innings, he did give up 232 hits and only struck out 139 batters. What Halladay does well is finish games, having seven complete games in 2007. Look for Halladay to give similar production in 2008. The caution here is that he did pitch two consecutive 200 inning seasons in ’06 and ’07. The last time he did that (2002-2003), Halladay suffered through some injuries. The second starter is the talented A.J. Burnett. Burnett is a frustrating pitcher as he has the raw stuff to dominate a game, but he has a hard time taking the mound consistently. Burnett made 25 starts last season and pitched quite well. If he can stay healthy, he does have 20 win capability. Being that Burnett can opt out of his contract this season, expect him to make every effort to make 30 starts. While he pitched well last season, a moderate upgrade can be expected.

The rest of the Jays’ staff is young and talented. The breakthrough pitcher from 2007 was Dustin McGowan. McGowan had a tremendous 2007 with 12 wins, 169.2 innings, 146 hits given up, and 144 strikeouts. He was the Jays’ best pitcher for most of the season. At just 26 years old, the future seems bright. The one caveat to this would be the idea that McGowan threw too many innings in 2007, having gone from 27.1 in ’06 to 169.2 in ’08. Sometimes, that drastic increase in innings can cause arm injury (hi Francisco Liriano). The last two spots will be filled by 26 year old Shawn Marcum, and either 22 year old Jesse Litsch or Gustavo Chacin. In Marcum and Litsch, the Jays have young pitchers capable of having good careers. The starting five pitchers have potential, but because of a lack of depth and a worry about innings, the Jays staff will give slightly less than last season (which isn’t so hard to believe considering the ’07 staff was amazing). They should still be in the top five in the AL, but the unpredictability of youth could influence their finish.

The bullpen is the best, top to bottom, in the game. Last season saw five out of six pitchers in the pen have ERA’s under 3.50. With a nice mixture of left hander’s and quality right hander’s, there isn’t a single weakness in the Toronto bullpen. To make the bullpen even stronger, closer B.J. Ryan looks to be healthy and ready to resume his closer position. This leaves the Jays’ in a great situation as Jeremy Accardo, who had a tremendous season as the closer (2.14 ERA, 1.114 WHIP and 30 saves), can move to the setup spot and former setup man, Casey Janssen could possibly claim the 5^th starter role. The best option for the Blue Jays’ pen would be to carry Ryan, Accardo, Janssen, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs, Brandon League, and a long man. That bullpen would be the best in the AL east and possibly in all of baseball. Of course, relief pitching has great year to year fluctuation so it is not a given that they will perform close to the 2007 standard. However, given the youth of the bullpen as well as the talent and diversity, expect the bullpen to be one of the best in baseball for 2008.

 The 2008 Blue Jays will be a tough team to play. They should see a much better offense, one that would put them in the middle of the pack. The starting staff will have more issues than last season, but the bullpen will be solid. Predicting wins for the Blue Jays is difficult given their division. 85 wins for the club seems reasonable. That number could grow if the young pitchers at the back of the rotation develop and build off of last season. The sad part is that if the Jays were in the AL west or NL central, they would run away with the division. But, they are cursed to the AL east with the two giants of the game. Are they capable of making a run in the division? Sure. Is it unlikely? Absolutely.  The Blue Jays will once again land in the three spot after 162 games.

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