fullcountpitch.com

By Gary Armida

You know how they say that when you make a copy of a copy it comes out poorly? If you had trouble with that opening question, think about the underrated Michael Keaton movie Multiplicity when the third clone is made from the second clone. Well, that expression holds water in the world of baseball. There has to be trouble in Toronto. The trouble is that this problem is largely ignored as the Blue Jays seem to be a forgotten team sitting up in Toronto. As the great Peter Gammons said about baseball in Toronto, “It’s baseball with subtitles.” A team that was to be the breakout team of 2008 (that’s the Rays now if you didn’t know) is sitting in last place in the American League East with a record of 35-39. Furthermore, this is a team that has finished in third place for what seems like the last 102 years. With that recent track record, most general managers would be on the hot seat. However, for some strange reason, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi seems to be flying under the radar despite mishandling the Blue Jays for the past few seasons. Ricciardi was out of the spotlight until this week when he made some controversial comments about Reds slugger Adam Dunn. Maybe his mouth will be the reason he is exposed for leading the underachieving and ill-formed team.

Now, let’s get to the whole “copy of a copy” intro. J.P. Ricciardi is a descendent from the Billy Beane line of general managers. The Michael Lewis book, Moneyball, details Ricciardi’s input into all baseball decisions while he worked under Beane in Oakland. The book makes it seem like Ricciardi has a good handle on player worth and roster formation. When Ricciardi took the Blue Jays job, it was assumed that he would follow the Moneyball principles. For the most part, Ricciardi has stayed true to setup by fielding slow, plodding teams who pitch well and hit for power. While Beane has stayed true to the principles, he has backed down over certain MoneyBall rules. Sometimes team needs outweigh the staying true to one’s principles. Ricciardi’s teams have stayed true to the Moneyball principles. The Jays typically have good starting pitching, a deep, interchangeable bullpen, and a powerful lineup. He, however, has underestimated the value of an offensive attack over the past few seasons. That statement is proved by his actions over the past two years. Thus, the Blue Jays are wasting the nice pitching that they have gotten so far. So, Ricciardi is doing a worse job than the original (Beane) with more resources available to him. What makes it worse is the fact that a GM in his own division (Epstein) who follows many of the same is doing a great job at adapting to his team needs while still following some of the Moneyball philosophies.

What He has Done Well

To be fair, every general manager has their share of errors and successes. Before we begin to dissect his failures, let’s look at the good things he has done for the Toronto Blue Jays organization.

J.P. Ricciardi has assembled a tremendous pitching staff led by ace Roy Halladay. The youngsters, Shawn Marcum, Dustin McGowan, and Jesse Litsch are all pitching well. The oft-injured AJ Burnett rounds out a tremendous rotation. The bullpen has an amazing chemistry with BJ Ryan, Jesse Carlson, and Scott Downs all pitching well. Overall, the staff is third in the American League in ERA, first in complete games (thanks Roy), and second in strikeouts and innings. The young pitching staff (staff average age is 28 years old) is one of the most complete, well rounded staffs in the league. One could make the argument that they have the best staff, top to bottom, in all of baseball.

His other success has been getting the Jays’ ownership to spend some money. There was a time when the Blue Jays would not sign big name free agents. Ricciardi has changed the perception of the Blue Jays by getting ownership to cut big checks to guys like BJ Ryan, Vernon Wells, and AJ Burnett. Whether or not Ricciardi made the correct player evaluations is another story.

What’s Gone Wrong?

J.P. Ricciardi falls victim to the “copying” analogy discussed early. He represents the inflexible, almost zealot following that many Moneyball guys demonstrate when they discuss baseball. However, that strident following has warped into this poor copy of a pretty good plan as some of the values get distorted when desperation kicks in. The Blue Jays, under his time as GM, have never stolen bases and never had guys who hit for average. Sure, one could look at the 2006 teams and see a powerful team, but that team seemed to have career years from guys like Bengie Molina, Lyle Overbay, Vernon Wells, and Troy Glaus. Plus, all of that added up to just 87 wins because, at that time, the Jays did not have the pitching they have today.

2006 should’ve been the starting point. However, Ricciardi failed to build the offense. Instead, he let Molina leave because he was not the ideal Moneyball guy, meaning his on base percentage was not quite high enough. Instead, he gave the starting job to 39 year old Greg Zaun. In addition, his big signings were a pair of 39 year olds in Frank Thomas (a good move that he managed to screw up a year later) and Matt Stairs. He also brought in the 37 year old Royce Clayton to be the starting shortstop. The end result was an offense that finished 12^th in the league in batting average as well as the all important on base percentage. The 2007 Jays finished third, once again, with 83 wins. One could’ve made an excuse that Toronto lost its closer early that season and it was a year that the young pitching developed. While true, the 2008 version has not fared much better. Because of that “failure”, Ricciardi then began to warp the Moneyball rules into signing/acquiring guys who were older and did not fit any offensive philosophy. So, what you have is a 2008 team with great pitching and with an offense that clearly lacks any plan.

2008 has been a disaster for Ricciardi and the Blue Jays on so many levels. First, the tremendous pitching is being wasted by a putrid offense. So far, the Jays offense ranks 12^th in the league in runs scored, 13^th in homeruns and slugging percentage. While their on base percentage ranks sixth in the league, it means nothing if they aren’t plating those runners who get on base so much. So, a team that is struggling offensively should keep anyone who can contribute, right?

Well, according to Ricciardi, the answer would be no. Inexplicably, on April 20^th, the Blue Jays released their designated hitter, Frank Thomas. While there have been many rumors as to why, one cannot help but wonder if it had something to do with his $10 million dollar vesting option. Thomas quickly re-signed with Oakland (see, the original guy knows what he is doing) and quickly caught fire. As a matter of fact, if Thomas accumulated those stats with the Blue Jays he would currently rank second in homeruns and RBI as well as lead the team in on base percentage and slugging percentage. Couple that fact with the reality that Thomas has not played a game in two weeks due to injury and you really see just how poor the offense is for Toronto. Ricciardi simply made a poor move, one that will cost them any chance of a playoff berth. Making matters worse is the fact that he said prospect Adam Lind would be given the at bats vacated by Thomas. That lasted all of 19 at bats. Lind was sent down after going 1 for 19. Well, at least he had the same chance the Hall of Famer Frank Thomas had.

While Ricciardi was congratulated on getting ownership to spend money, he has spent it unwisely in many cases. AJ Burnett, a talented pitcher who visits the disabled list as if it is his summer home, was given a 5 year, $55 million dollar contract. While the Royals were scoured for giving Gil Meche a big deal, one could argue that the Burnett contract is worse. For the money, Burnett has made 21, 25, and currently 15 starts during his time in Toronto. He has not won more than 10 games nor has he pitched more than 165 innings. Sometimes having money doesn’t guarantee getting good, reliable players.

It is because of that contract, as well as the Ryan contract (hey, the Jays have a good amount of relievers who could close), that the Blue Jays have zero offense. That money, close to $100 million dollars, could have brought in a quality corner outfielder, a solid short stop, and a solid catcher, and still allow you to sign a pitcher or two. Instead, the Jays continue to trot out the likes of veterans Shannon Stewart, David Eckstein, Matt Stairs, Scott Rolen, and Greg Zaun on a daily basis. While these veteran players are by no means bad players, they are not the type of players to build your lineup around. Remember, this is more than half of the Toronto offensive attack. The supposed cornerstones of the offensive attack, Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, have hit just a combined 10 homeruns and have a combined on base percentage of .328. Yes, giving them long term deals was another tremendous decision.

So, the Blue Jays are a terrible team. That isn’t even the worst of it all. In what could only be described as incredible timing, this article was conceived about an hour before the news dropped about Ricciardi’s comments about the Reds’ slugger, Adam Dunn. This is truly bizarre.

Ricciardi has his own talk radio show in which he takes calls from fans. Understandably, the fans are growing a bit impatient. One caller suggests acquiring Adam Dunn, who is rumored to be available since he is in the last year of his contract. Ricciardi, instead of using GM speak (which means to say words that mean nothing), launches into a diatribe about how Adam Dunn doesn’t care about the game of baseball and that all he is just a .240 hitter who strikes out a lot and hits homeruns. Of course, Adam Dunn got upset and Ricciardi made the obligatory apology. This is wrong on so many levels. First, a general manager has an obligation to represent his employers with class. This little thing is a black eye on the Blue Jays organization. Imagine if he were the GM of the Yankees or Cubs. The fire storm would be brutal. Secondly, Ricciardi is absolutely dead wrong about Adam Dunn. He is precisely the type of player that the Jays need.

Adam Dunn does strikeout a ton and he does not hit for a high average. But, remember, Moneyball players don’t have to hit for a high average. If a player’s on base percentage and slugging percentage is good, then he is a valuable player. For his career, Dunn is a .247/.382/.519 hitter. In each of his five full seasons, he has walked over 100 times. Sure, he’s had over 150 strikeouts in each of those seasons as well, but what is the difference between a strikeout and a groundout? One can make the argument that a strikeout is a more benign result than a groundout. For this season, Dunn, who got off to a very slow start, would lead the Jays in homeruns, RBI, OBP, and slugging percentage. The talk of Dunn not being a good fit seems to be the talk of a general manager who doesn’t know how to evaluate his team or other players.

What’s Next?

Well, for Ricciardi, it will probably be a move to cover his lack of performance. The hot rumor is that Blue Jays’ manager, John Gibbons is set to be fired soon. That will allow Ricciardi to have a fall guy for the Jays’ putrid offense. Yes, it has to be Gibbons’ fault that the Jays can’t steal bases, hit homeruns, or drive in runners. While the firing of Gibbons will buy Ricciardi some time, he will be next. The Adam Dunn comments will probably bring the mainstream media attention to the fact that the Jays are an ill conceived team that is grossly mismanaged.