fullcountpitch.com

By Gary Armida

The 2008 baseball season is already memorable for a variety of reasons. Fans have been treated to great exploits on the field like Jr.’s 600^th homer and Manny’s 500^th homer. There’s already been a no-hitter thrown courtesy of Jon Lester. Teams like the Rays and Marlins find themselves in the thick of the pennant race, probably two years earlier than most thought. While all of that is tremendous, the 2008 season most likely will be remembered for the injuries of two great competitors in John Smoltz and Curt Schilling. Both pitchers are finished for the season with various shoulder issues, both requiring surgery (Smoltz already had his, Schilling is on his way). There is a possibility that they can come back next season. However, there is a doubt whether or not they can make it back from these severe injuries at their age. So, let’s take a look at where they stand in the historical pantheon of baseball. Both pitchers achieved greatness on the mound, ratcheting their game up a notch when the games meant more. They were two of the best pitchers of this generation, even if they were never really acknowledged as the best. Both men fall short of the automatic marks of gaining entrance into the Hall of Fame. Although their win totals (216 for Schilling, 210 for Smoltz) are nowhere near that benchmark, it would be a travesty if these men were passed over by the Hall of Fame.

The Wins Argument

Before we start to examine the careers of the two pitchers, let’s explore the most common argument when it comes to electing pitchers to the Hall. If one is married to the idea that a Hall of Fame pitcher must have 300 wins then both do not gain admittance. Sure 300 wins is an incredible accomplishment. But, with the five man rotation, the idea of a 300 game winner may be dead unless Randy Johnson can muster up 12 more victories before he is through. So, if we stay true to the logic that 300 wins is a must, pitchers will never get elected after Tom Glavine.

However, the 300 wins argument is also bogus as there are many Hall of Fame pitchers who do not have the 300 wins.  Fierce competitors like Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Whitey Ford, Carl Hubbell, Red Ruffing, Catfish Hunter, and Fergie Jenkins all fall short of 300 wins yet are still members of the Hall of Fame. The reason is that they were dominant pitchers over their career. They didn’t hit the magic number due either injuries, poor teams, or a short career. The shortage of wins does not change the fact that they were some of the best pitchers of their time.

The flip side to the wins argument is to look at pitchers who have more wins than Schilling and Smoltz. Guys like Jaime Moyer, Joe Neikro, Charlie Hough, and (soon) Kenny Rogers all have more wins. Even Hall of Famer Don Sutton, a 300 game winner can be added to this conversation. Now, there is not one sane baseball fan who would take any one of those pitchers over Schilling and Smoltz. Wins, a largely team dependent statistic, cannot be the sole determination of a pitcher’s place in history.

The Case for Smoltz

John Smoltz began his career with the Braves in 1988 as a 21 year old rookie. After his rookie year, Smoltz won at least 11 games in 10 out of the next 11 seasons. In six of those seasons, he threw at least 229 innings with a career high of 256 in 1990. During that run, his highest ERA was 3.56 (excluding the strike shortened 1994 season). He was the model of consistency, taking the mound start after start. His finest season came in 1996 when he went 24-8 en route to his only Cy Young Award. That year he threw 253.2 innings, gave up just 199 hits, struck out 276 batters with an ERA of 2.94 and a WHIP of 1.001. Injuries began to take their toll on Smoltz which forced him to miss quite a few starts over the next two seasons.

In order to alleviate his pain, the Braves moved Smoltz to the closer role. From 2001-2004, Smoltz was the National League’s best closer (sorry Hoffman fans, Smoltz was better). He racked up 154 saves over that span. Feeling better in 2005, Smoltz returned to the rotation at age 38. From 2005 to 2007, Smoltz won at least 14 games and threw over 200 innings in each of those three seasons. His ERA was never over 3.49. After going on the DL, Smoltz’s career numbers stand at 210-147 and 154 saves. In 3,395 career innings, he gave up just 2,979 hits, struck out 3,011 batters and compiled a 3.26 ERA and 1.170 WHIP.

While those numbers look great, a closer inspection of Smoltz’s post season performance only strengthens the argument for enshrinement. In 24 career post seasons series, Smoltz has a 15-4 record with a 2.65 ERA. In 207 career post season innings, he’s given up just 168 hits and struck out 194 batters. Additionally, Smoltz has 4 post season saves, illustrating that he can get the job done on both ends of the game. In short, Smoltz raises his game to historic levels when it comes to the playoffs.

The Case for Schilling

Curt Schilling is an interesting case study for entrance to the Hall for many reasons. Like Smoltz, Schilling does not have the win total (he has 216). However, this can be explained for a few reasons, which may even illustrate a greater dominance. Curt Schilling began his career for the Baltimore Orioles in 1998 at age 21 (sound familiar?). He only started four games that season and appeared in just five games the following year. In 1990 and 1991, Schilling was used out of the bullpen for the Orioles and (in 91) the Astros. After the Phillies stole him from the Astros (a trade for Jason Grimsley straight up), he became a starter. In 1992 and 1993, Schilling started 26 and 34 games respectively winning 14 and 16 games each season. For the next three seasons, Schilling battled a variety of injuries which cost him many starts. It was not until 1997, at the age of 30, where Curt Schilling remained healthy and competed like, well, Curt Schilling. In the next 11 seasons, Schilling threw at least 200 innings and won at least 11 games in eight of those seasons. He won 20 games three times during that span.

In all, Schilling stands at a record of 216-146 in 3,261 innings pitched. He’s given up 2,998 hits while striking out 3,116 batters to the tune of a 3.46 ERA and 1.137 WHIP. He ranks 14^th all-time on the career strikeout list and 13^th with his strikeouts per nine innings. While those numbers seem good, they look even better considering these were put up during the second half of his career. Having his supposed prime taken away from him, Schilling compiled those statistics as a 30-something year old. 164 of his wins came after his 30^th birthday.

The postseason is where Schilling, like Smoltz, really makes his case. In 12 post season series, Schilling has an amazing 11-2 record with a 2.23 ERA. In 133.1 career post season innings, he’s given up just 104 hits and struck out 120 batters. While those numbers are incredible, the story behind them is even more fascinating. Schilling, along with teammate Randy Johnson, was responsible for the end of the New York Yankees’ dynasty of the late 90’s and early 2000’s. In that 2001 World Series, Schilling started three of the seven games, throwing 21.1 innings. He gave up just 12 hits and struck out 26. It was in 2004, that the “Bloody Sock” incident took place. After getting hit hard earlier in the series, Curt Schilling threw one of the gutsiest games ever. With his ankle needing surgery, Schilling had it temporarily stitched so he could pitch. Incredibly, he helped the Red Sox to a historic comeback against the Yankees.

Fittingly, if this is the last we see of Schilling, his last game was in the 2007 World Series. The gritty 40 year old went 5.1 innings, gave up 4 hits and just 1 run while striking out 4 for the victory.

Closing Thoughts

Both men, statistically, deserve Hall of Fame status. Their post season records alone should punch their tickets. They also are both class acts and have represented the game of baseball well. Both men were always open to the media, giving fans the sound bites they so desperately craved. Both would answer questions, win or lose. Both men competed even when they were injured. They fought against the steroid use in baseball. Most importantly, both men left it all out on the field. While other pitchers may have gotten more accolades, Schilling and Smoltz were two of the toughest competitors of this generation. Once the post season came, they were the two best of this generation. If they can’t make a comeback from their respective injuries, they will be going to the Hall of Fame together.