fullcountpitch.com

By Gary Armida

It is always interesting to see what an organization does when it peaks a year too early. Some may choose to ride it out with their young players like the Marlins of 2006. Some may choose to dip into their farm system and push their young talent like the Rockies of 2007. And some may choose to trade for that missing ingredient and seize the opportunity in front of them like the 2003 World Series Champion Marlins. The Rays find themselves in this predicament this year. After yesterday’s victory over the Red Sox, the Rays are 2.5 games ahead of the Sox and 7.5 games ahead of the New York Yankees with a 51-32 record, the best record in the major leagues. While many (including this site-we wrote about it in November) thought the Rays would be good, no one had an idea that they would be leading baseball heading into the Fourth of July weekend. Now the Rays are at a crossroads. With a deficiency in right field and designated hitter and a need for an additional pitcher or two, the Rays brain trust must decide how to proceed. Do they go for it or do they just see what happens?

The Rays are in the top 6 in every important offensive category. On the pitching side, they are in the top five in every important category. On the pitching side, the Rays are getting great performances out of James Shields (6-5 3.70 ERA) and Matt Garza (7-4). They are led by their staff ace, Scott Kazmir who has established himself as one of the premier pitchers in the game today with his 7-3 record and  2.28 ERA. Andy Sonnanstine (9 wins) and Edwin Jackson (4-6 4.30) fill out the remainder of the rotation. If the Rays are serious about contending, they must upgrade one of the final spots in their rotation. How they do this is the interesting part.

They could trade for a pitcher given the fact that the Rays have one of the best farm systems in baseball. The Rays are one of the few teams who could satisfy the Indian’s demands for C.C. Sabathia (forget Oswalt in the American League). However, with Kazmir, Shields, and Garza pitching well, the Rays merely need a backend of the rotation pitcher. Looking at teams like the Padres (Randy Wolf) or the Reds (Bronson Arroyo) could help the Rays rotation. Of course, the Rays could always dip into their highly touted farm system and plug in one of their big time prospects. Guys like Jeff Niemann (AAA) and Wade Davis (AA) are two players that could help. Jacob McGee would’ve been a help, but he is scheduled to undergo Tommy John surgery. While those guys could help, they won’t have a huge impact like one prospect. Many expect the lefty phenom, David Price to get a September call up. Price will be a dominant force for many years to come. Do the Rays become desperate enough to call him up early? Do they shift him to help the bullpen ala Joba Chamberlain?

Offensively, the team needs a corner outfielder and a designated hitter. For the Rays to upgrade here, they must look outside of their organization. With only 25 year old speedster Fernando Martinez in AAA as a true minor league prospect, the Rays would be forced to call up the likes of Dan Johnson or Chris Richards. Yes, the Rays minor league system is no longer an offensive hotbed. But, with many pitching prospects, they can look to make a trade. Looking through the teams that may want to deal, guys like Xavier Nady, Ken Griffey Jr. (long shot), Wily Mo Pena, Austin Kerns, and Raul Ibanez could be had. One intriguing option is one of their own rehabbing players in Rocco Baldelli. While Baldelli cannot be counted upon, he is currently rehabbing in the minor leagues and represents a no-cost upgrade.

For the moment, the Rays are in a no-lose situation. They are clearly the story of the 2008 season. But, as they go deeper into the season while contending, the pressure to win will become real. A team doesn’t get many opportunities like this. It is especially important for an organization like the Rays who have a dreadful history. The next few weeks will be interesting for the Rays with the July 31^st trade deadline looming.

The FCP take? They should continue to ride the wave of young pitching. If they can add a bat on the cheap, then go for it. But, I do not part with any of their top four pitching prospects.

While we all ponder if the Rays are for real, let’s take a look at a few happenings around the baseball world…

• Staying with the Rays for a moment, they placed closer Tory Percival on the DL once again, this time with a hamstring injury. They withstood it the last time and should once again. The bullpen may be getting taxed a bit, but that’s why we just spoke about getting another arm or two.
• The Phillies optioned Brett Myers to work his troubles out. He has been awful in his return to the rotation, but it is shocking for the Phillies to take this step (yet refreshing at the same time). GM Pat Gillick said that Myers took the news well and is looking forward to working things out and returning. If that has any element of truth, the Phillies organization is one that gets things right. Earlier this year reining MVP Jimmy Rollins was benched for failing to run out a groundball. Rollins didn’t complain. There is something to be said for an organization where its players respect the decisions of management. It’s not the case everywhere.
• The Diamondbacks had to put Eric Byrnes on the DL again with hamstring issues. I give Byrnes a ton of credit for trying to comeback from tears in both hamstrings. If he is out for a long period of time, this further hurts the D-Backs shot. Here’s a bold prediction-the D-Backs don’t win the West.
• It looks like the Angels will be without Kelvim Escobar for the season. I know I said that it would hurt them back in April, but having Joe Saunders and Ervin Santana throwing well lessens the blow. The Angels will be just fine.
• Joe Borowski continues to haunt Cleveland and fantasy owners alike (me included). It worked last year, but it is definitely not working this season. Eric Wedge must make a change. How can a “closer” with a 7+ ERA and 4 blown saves continue to keep his job. Cleveland’s bullpen has a ton of potential. Someone like Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, or Masa Kobayashi can take over the role. The Tribe needs all the wins they can get so the time is now.
• The Yankees called up speedster Brett Gardner on Monday. Gardner is a guy with zero power, but tremendous speed and great on base skills. Although he hasn’t gotten a hit in his two games, he has executed a sacrifice bunt and stolen a base. If he can keep his OBP over .350, he will be an asset to the Yankees considering he can play all three positions. I do have a soft spot for no power, high speed players, so Gardner has already become a FCP favorite.