fullcountpitch.com

By Gary Armida

Well now, that was a quick response by the Cubbies, wasn’t it? The Cubs felt the need to respond and respond quickly. On the same day that CC Sabathia made his Brewers debut (a win in 6 innings, two runs), the Cubs acquired uber-talented, yet oft-injured, Rich Harden and the underrated Chad Gaudin from the Oakland A’s for OF Matt Murton, P Sean Gallagher, 2B/OF Eric Patterson, and Catcher Josh Donaldson. As was stated in yesterday’s Sabathia trade analysis article, the Brewers trade put pressure on the Cubs to upgrade their rotation as well. The Cubs responded quickly, perhaps stronger, but definitely riskier. They acquired a difference maker, but they acquired him from Billy Beane, which should automatically raise a red flag with Cubs fans as Beane rarely gives away talent without getting more than they are worth. Once again, Beane gets a nice haul, but the Cubs make a deal that they had to make.

The A’s Perspective

The fact that the A’s are trading Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin while still within reach of a playoff berth shows  that Billy Beane is quite realistic about the 2008 A’s. They are simply overachieving at this point. Beane, as usual, has stayed ahead of the curve and dealt from a strength. If he waited until the end of July and the A’s fell out of the race, his advantage would’ve been lost. If he waited until next season, before Harden was close to free agency (he’s eligible after the 2009 season), he would have lost an advantage. In dealing his best pitcher, Beane acquires another package of players who are mostly ready to contribute immediately. The only pitcher he received was Sean Gallagher (which is odd because Beane usually acquires pitching in bulk). Gallagher is 22 years old and has made 10 starts for the Cubs this season. He was in the process of going to the bullpen, but he looks like he will join the A’s rotation and start on Friday. For this season, Gallagher is 3-4 with a 4.45 ERA. In 57.2 innings, he’s given up 58 hits and has struck out 49. The 6′1″ 215 pound right hander was drafted by the Cubs at 18 years old. In his five years in the minors (with 2008’s 5 starts), Gallagher has pitched 480.2 innings given up 408 hits and struck out 482 batters. He projects to be a quality major league pitcher, most likely a middle of the rotation type.

Matt Murton was also acquired. Murton, a former Red Sox farm hand, has a chance to be a quality major league hitter, but never seemed to get a full chance in Chicago. In his 870 major league at bats, Murton is a .294/.362/.448 hitter. He should be given a chance to earn a full time starting gig with the A’s. As cliché as it sounds, he is a Moneyball type player. Eric Patterson, the 25 year old left handed hitter, projects to be an average major league hitter with the capability of hitting 10-15 homeruns and steal double digit bases. Patterson has been playing the outfield for Chicago, but is a second baseman by trade. With Mark Ellis becoming a free agent, he could be viewed as a potential starter for 2009. Catcher Josh Donaldson is a 22 year old prospect who is struggling in single-A ball this season. So far, the catcher is hitting .223/.282/.358 following a tremendous debut when he hit .335/.460/.590 in 173 at bats. If he is somewhat in between those two players, he has the potential to be a solid catcher.

Overall, the A’s get a package of useful players. In this trade, unlike the Haren deal, Beane does not get that potential ace pitcher or can’t miss power hitter. He does get two guys in Gallagher and Murton who can be solid players. One should keep an eye on Gallagher as Beane has a keen eye when it comes to acquiring pitchers.

The Cubs Perspective

In acquiring Harden, the Cubs do get arguably the league’s most talented pitcher. Harden, when healthy, makes a great case to be the best pitcher in baseball. So far this season he is 5-1 with a 2.34 ERA. In 74 innings, he has struck out 92 batters and has given up just 57 hits. For his career, Harden has a 3.42 ERA and a 1.244 WHIP in 541.2 innings. Even more impressive is his performance against the National League. This year, in 26.2 innings, he’s given up just two earned runs. Yeah, I think that qualifies as domination. As all of the media outlets have reported, Harden comes with a great risk due to his inability to stay healthy. His 13 starts this season are the most he’s made since 2005. Even more disconcerting is the fact that his only complete season, 2005, he posted a 3.99 ERA and his second worst WHIP (1.329). Perhaps that fact has to do with his young age (he was just 22 at the time) or his lack of experience as that was his first full (and only full) season. While that is a minor concern, Harden has the stuff to dominate a game. Paired with Carlos Zambrano, the Cubs now overtake the Brewers with the best 1-2 punch in baseball (sorry D-Backs, these two are better). With Ryan Dempster having a great season, and Ted Lilly at the back of the rotation, the Cubs are built for the regular season as well as the short series. With two aces, each could make two starts in a seven game series.

Perhaps even more importantly, the Cubs received another power arm for their bullpen. Chad Gaudin is an underrated right handed pitcher who is 5-3 in 26 games (6 starts). In 62.2 innings, he’s given up 63 hits and has struck out 44 with a 3.59 ERA and a 1.277 WHIP. This is Gaudin’s fourth team, but he seems to have found a niche as a reliever and spot starter. He should have the long relief role for the Cubs, who just deepen their already deep bullpen. Gaudin also provides insurance in case Harden needs time off.

The Cubs potentially improve themselves tremendously for the season. They get a guy who immediately becomes the best pitcher in the division. The health risk is there, but this is a deal the Cubs had to make for a number of reasons. First, there wasn’t a pitcher left on the market who could make a great impact like Harden, unless of course you believe AJ Burnett is that guy (I don’t). Second, they do get another quality arm in the trade which can help them too. Third, pairing Harden and Zambrano (this year and next year) aligns the Cubs with the other playoff contenders. They can toss those two out against anyone in baseball and have a distinct advantage. Fourth, the fact that the Cubs, like the Brewers, consummated the deal now allows them to get 3 or 4 more starts before the trade deadline.  

Lastly, the Cubs needed to do this for their fan base and general psyche. While that doesn’t sound like a legitimate reason, it applies when the team in question hasn’t won a title in 100 years. The Brewers acquisition of Sabathia was major news. The fact that the Cubs struck back so quickly demonstrates that they are serious contenders willing to improve themselves.

Overall, if Harden can take the ball every five days, the Cubs have all but punched their ticket to the post season. It makes the already tight central division, even more competitive.

Does this guarantee the Cubs a playoff berth? No, it does not. They are a step above the Brewers once again because of this trade. The main difference between the Cubs and Brewers is the Cubs quality bullpen. The acquisition of Harden adds an intriguing element to their team, but there are still questions. Although Ryan Dempster is having a great season (10-0 at home), he is having the best year of his life. There is a ton of baseball to be played so he will have ample opportunity to prove he is legitimate. Also, the health of Carlos Zambrano has been in question this year already.

Overall, the Cubs fired back with this deal quite nicely. It’s risky, but if it works out, they’ll be playing baseball in October. If Harden does miss time, it will give the Cubs fans something to agonize over. However it works out, the National League Central is the most intriguing race in the National League and perhaps in all of baseball.