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By Gary Armida

With the Tampa Rays still in first place (3 games ahead of Boston heading into last night’s action), many media outlets are proclaiming them as the official favorite to win the AL East. The young Rays have played some exciting baseball, most recently winning games with an extra innings walk and then coming from six runs down in the ninth. Yes, the Rays are having a tremendous season (as we thought), but they are far from locks to even make the playoffs. Even with a solid run differential of +55, the Rays do have some obstacles that they must overcome to finish off a magical season. Taking into account their youth, their schedule, and their competition, the Rays will have a tough couple of months. Let’s examine the Rays’ chances of staying atop the AL East standings.

Obstacle One: They Don’t Like Willie Nelson

The Rays don’t like to be on the road (now do you get the weak Willie Nelson reference?). The Rays are 23-28 on the road this season. That is fourth worst in the American League. Conversely, they are 45-17 at home (the ugliest stadium in baseball). Unfortunately for the Rays, they have just 19 home games left with 29 remaining on the road. The August road series involve a trip to the west coast for series against Seattle and Oakland. Then, the Rays go to Texas and conclude in Chicago. While Seattle and Oakland look winnable, a trip to the west coast is always taxing on a team. Texas will provide a challenge while fighting for a wild card berth and Chicago is fighting Minnesota for a division title. The nine August home series are dates with the Angels, Blue Jays, and Orioles. Look for the Rays to struggle with the Angels (currently the best team in baseball, and most importantly the best road team in baseball), but beat up on the Jays and Orioles (they have a combined record of 17-6 against those two clubs).

September’s schedule is not easier. Their 10 home games are against division rivals the Red Sox and Yankees, and a final series against the Minnesota Twins. Obviously, those are tough opponents considering all will be fighting for a playoff spot. The 16 road games include trips to Toronto, Baltimore, Detroit, Boston, and New York. Again, nothing is easy for them.

Teams are having a more difficult time on the road this year for a variety of reasons. While the Rays are young, the grind of the season coupled with the grind from their first playoff experience may be too much for the young legs of the Rays.

Obstacle Two: Pitchers May Run Out of Gas

The Rays have had one of the most stable rotations in the league. Considering that the Yankees and Red Sox have had more than a few spot starters to fill in for injuries, the Rays have had relatively few (only Kazmir and Garza have missed time). The problem is that for the young Rays pitchers (all rotation members are under 26), innings are starting to mount. Only James Shields and Scott Kazmir have pitched over 200 innings in their careers (both last year). Edwin Jackson has already thrown 130 innings. His career high was set last year at 160. Andrew Sonnanstine has already thrown 133.2 innings, surpassing his career high of 130.2 set last season. Matt Garza is already significantly over his career high in innings with 129 so far after just 83 last season.

That doesn’t mean that these pitchers can’t step up, but it does raise some questions. With most of the rotation in uncharted waters and pitching for the first time in the pressure of a pennant race, one has to wonder if they can still hold up on their team 3.77 ERA, good for third in the league.

With the Rays system stocked with arms, they could supplement the staff if the current rotation begins to show fatigue. Many are awaiting the arrival of phenom David Price in September who could provide that boost as he looks to be the next dominant, young pitcher.

While a quality, youthful pitching staff is always desirable, there will always be a question mark about them in a playoff drive until they do it for the first time.      

Obstacle Three: Pitchers May Run Out of Gas, Part Two

While the Rays rotation is quite young, the bullpen is not. Four of the Rays key bullpen members are 30 years old or older. Closer Troy Percival has already been on the disabled list twice this season despite the lightest workload in the pen. When healthy, he’s been tremendous, but he must hold up for the rest of the season. The 30 year old Dan Wheeler is having a tremendous season. He has thrown 49 innings, given up just 30 hits while sporting a 2.20 ERA. While this is tremendous, Wheeler is just one season removed from a 5+ ERA. The 30 year old Grant Balfour has been lights out this season, throwing 32.1 innings, giving up just 12 (yes, just 12) hits while striking out 49. If Balfour continues this pace, this would be the first season in his five year career where he finished with an ERA under 4.15 and a WHIP under 1.400 (his current ERA and WHIP are 1.43 and 0.804 respectively). The 37 year old Al Reyes is having a tough time duplicating his solid 2007 season when he was the Rays closer. Youngsters Jason Hammel and lefty JP Howell round out the pen.

So far, the bullpen has held up for the Rays. However, with no trade deadline additions, the Rays will depend on their veteran arms staying healthy and, more importantly, effective.  Like the starting rotation, the bullpen could be aided by some of the young power arms in the Rays’ system.

Obstacle Four: The Offense isn’t that Good

Yes, the statistics read that the Rays are fifth in homeruns, 6^th in OBP, 7^th in slugging, and first in stolen bases. But, they are 13^th in the league in doubles, 10^th in runs scored, and 4^th in the league in strikeouts. The power production has come from mainly three people. The power has come from Carlos Pena (20 HR and 62 RBI), Eric Hinske (16 HR and 49 RBI), and their leader, Evan Longoria (22 HR and 71 RBI). BJ Upton, although he has had a disappointing power season, still has a .381 OBP. The rest of the lineup, aside from Dioner Navarro’s solid season, has been largely non-existent. The prime example is Carl Crawford, who is enduring his worst season as a regular. He is hitting .271/.314/.399 with just 25 stolen bases. He is currently battling leg problems which add on to an already poor offensive season.

With basically a three man lineup, the Rays are an easy lineup to pitch to if a team has bullpen depth. Additionally, with Carlos Pena a .181 hitter against left handers, teams will be able to mix and match against the poor Rays lineup. Of course, players like Crawford, Iwamura, Floyd, and even Upton can step up and be more productive. There is also the specter of Rocco Baldelli returning. Baldelli could provide some right handed pop as he attempts his comeback.

Obstacle Five: Sox and Yanks

The last obstacles are the teams chasing the Rays. The defending champion Red Sox are just three games behind with two head to head series in September. The Rays and Red Sox have split their 12 games while the Yankees have won seven of their 12 meetings this season. For what it’s worth, the Yankees haven’t missed the playoffs since 1994. Both teams, despite being behind the Rays, have rosters that are veteran laden who have “been there before”. Both teams possess better lineups than the Rays and are capable of more scoring runs.

Perhaps the biggest advantage the Red Sox and Yankees have over the Rays is the fact that they have been playing pennant drive baseball for the past decade. This coming August and September will not have an impact on New York or Boston. The impact on Tampa Bay has yet to be seen.

The other advantage is that the Red Sox and Yankees added some pieces for the stretch drive while the Rays did not. The Red Sox altered the team chemistry by shipping out Manny Ramirez, who quit on them, for the talented Jason Bay. The Red Sox are still a candidate to add additional players during the waiver trade period. The Yankees added Xavier Nady, Ivan Rodriguez, and Damaso Marte. Marte is especially significant as he will match up with Carlos Pena during those key late inning situations. The Rays don’t get that influx of new blood to help them finish strong.

Closing Thoughts

All of this is does not mean that the Rays will miss the playoffs. On the contrary, these are the obstacles the Rays must face in order to qualify for the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. Some of these issues may have answers, like David Price igniting the pitching staff. Some don’t have any simple answers. The fact is that the Rays must play better on the road while maintaining their home field advantage against those playoff contending opponents.

It would be a great story if the Rays were able to finish the season as division champions or even a wild card team. Most likely, the Rays will fade in the September matchups against the more battle tested Red Sox, Yankees, and Tigers. Either way, 2008 has been a breakout season for the fledgling franchise, one that will turn the fortunes of the organization around for quite some time.