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Two Division Leaders: Dunn and Possibly Done

By Gary Armida

Two division leaders had two very different Monday mornings. One seized an opportunity to strengthen its lead. The other may have seen their playoff chances slip away. First let’s start with the good news. When you have a pitching staff that ranks in the top five in every major category, one would expect the team to be in first place and to be cruising towards the playoffs. The Arizona Diamondbacks had half of that equation. They are in first place, but were just 1.5 games ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers thanks in large part to a paltry offense. The offense ranks 10^th out of the 16 National League teams in the two most important offensive categories, on base percentage (.323) and slugging percentage (.413). Those two numbers are the reason why the Diamondbacks rank, you guessed it, 10^th in runs scored (534). With the Dodgers acquiring Manny Ramirez, the Diamondbacks were forced to make a move to bolster their dormant offense. On Monday, they addressed all of their needs with the acquisition of one player. Adam Dunn, formerly of the Reds, addresses every need the Diamondbacks had on offense. They agreed to part with 23 year old right handed pitcher Dallas Buck along with two players to be named later. With this trade, the D-Backs may have recaptured the momentum that the Dodgers seemed to have with their new left fielder. The other division leader, the Tampa Rays, lost the two best position players in their lineup over the course of hours. Tampa placed Carl Crawford on the disabled list with hand issues. Later, and perhaps more importantly, they placed their best run producer, Evan Longoria, on the DL with a fractured wrist. With the possibility of losing Longoria for the season, the Rays will find it difficult to maintain their division lead. Yes, two first place teams that could be going in opposite directions.

The D-Backs Get Dunn

 The Diamondbacks win in this deal in every way possible. For this season, they obtain the vastly underrated Adam Dunn to solidify a weak lineup. In the off season, they will get two draft picks if Dunn signs elsewhere as a free agent. If they sign him, they get a 29 year old power hitting outfielder who they can count on for the next five seasons. They send the Reds prospect Dallas Buck, a former third round draft choice. Buck is coming off of Tommy John Surgery which always makes for a greater risk. Making his return from surgery in June, Buck has started 9 single-A games, throwing 50.2 innings, giving up 46 hits, walking 11, and striking out 24. His ERA of 3.94 and his WHIP of 1.18 suggest a solid pitcher. Buck has lost, for the moment, his strikeout ability as he struck out 88 in 97.2 innings a season ago. Hopefully, he regains his strikeout ability as he currently projects to a middle to backend of the rotation starter. The Reds better select two “can’t miss” prospects to complete this trade or else they would’ve been better off keeping Dunn for the remainder of the season and reap the benefits of the two draft picks they would’ve received when Dunn signed elsewhere as a free agent. The Reds cannot be judged on this trade until it is complete.

The Diamondbacks can be evaluated, however. As stated above, Dunn is highly underrated because of his low batting average. In his eight year career, Dunn is a .247 hitter. Automatically, he is passed over when discussing the game’s great sluggers. However, if one looks at the important averages, on base and slugging, he would see one of the top run producers in the game. For his career Dunn is a .380/.520 hitter, numbers of an elite hitter. He has prodigious power as he is on his way to slugging over 40 homeruns for the fifth consecutive season. Additionally, he is on his way to his fifth consecutive season of more than 100 walks. With that type of power and on base skills, it is easy to overlook his batting average and immensely high strikeout totals (over 100 for seven straight seasons).

This season, Dunn is hitting .233/.377/.528 with a league leading 32 homeruns along with 74 RBI. He already has 80 walks and 120 strikeouts. With those totals, he becomes the D-Backs leading homerun hitter and slugging hitter, leading RBI and on base man, and its leader in walks. Because of the presence of Mark Reynolds and Chris Young, he is only third on the team in strikeouts. Obviously, Dunn completely revamps the D-Backs lineup. With Dunn in the middle of the lineup (as their probable left fielder), the lineup now has a true left handed power hitter. He will now go to work protecting Conor Jackson and Mark Reynolds. While one could argue that Dunn is leaving a great hitter’s ballpark, he is one guy that is not park dependent for his power. He is one of the game’s only true power hitters.

With Dunn making the D-Backs lineup legitimate, they are now the clear favorites to win the NL west. Although Manny Ramirez is a better hitter than Dunn, even Ramirez can’t match Dunn’s power. The Dodgers have a good lineup, better, slightly, than the Diamondbacks. But, the Diamondbacks have a much better pitching staff, one of the best in the league. The Dodgers cannot match them in terms of starting pitching. Now, that great pitching stands a chance at getting better, more consistent offense.

The only downfall for the Diamondbacks is that there is not another batter who can protect Dunn. He will receive many intentional walks as a result. Overall, the D-Backs finally address their offense, this time in a big way. Dunn is a difference maker and should propel them to a division crown.  

The Rays

Last Friday, we discussed the five things that could stop the Rays from making the playoffs. What was left out was the magical word, health. Injuries can make or break any team. Heading into last night’s action, the Rays lead their division by 4.5 games. First, Carl Crawford went down. Crawford is having his worst season of his career, but he is still hitting a somewhat respectable .277/.314/.400 with eight homeruns and 57 RBI with 25 stolen bases. With the roster presently lacking quality backups, the Rays are scrambling for a replacement. Rocco Baldelli has returned from his season long DL stint. The Rays have to hope he can stay healthy as he can be a factor and a suitable, but lesser player than Crawford at this point in his career.

The most devastating for the Rays was today’s news that Evan Longoria is going on the DL with a fractured wrist. That report is bad news for the Rays as they are losing their team leader in homeruns, RBI, and slugging percentage. Even more illustrative of his greatness is the fact that he leads this first place team in those categories despite missing the first month of the season. Longoria is that special rookie who plays like he’s been around longer than anyone. Added to his great offensive production, Longoria is an above average defender at third base, a good base runner, and a leader in the young Rays clubhouse.

However, his offense will be missed most. The Rays now have just Carlos Pena and Eric Hinske as batters with more than 10 homeruns on the season. With the table setter gone in Crawford and the run producer gone in Longoria, the Rays lineup will be hard pressed to continue producing runs. Even with those two, they only rank 10^th in the American League in runs scored. It can only get worse.

It looks like Longoria will miss the remainder of the season while Crawford may return at the end of the month, albeit without his full power. The Rays have been a tremendous story, but this Monday may have just sent them on the path of a disastrous ending.        

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