fullcountpitch.com

By Gary Armida

Two weeks ago, Brian Cashman was being congratulated by most media, baseball fans, and baseball people for his adroit moves. In picking up Xavier Nady, Damaso Marte, and Ivan Rodriguez, Cashman seemingly shored up most of the Yankees’ holes. Since then, the Yankees world has shown some serious signs of crumbling. In their last 15 games, they are 4-11, coming off of a terrible weekend in Los Angeles where they were swept by their nemesis Angels. Even worse, they lost Joba Chamberlain to shoulder tendinitis. Chamberlain’s return is still up in the air (He is set to begin a throwing program later this week). One could look at the offense and blame it for the struggles. With Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui gone for the season, the Yankees lost two players that each had an OPS north of .900. Also, a decline in production from Derek Jeter and Bobby Abreu and the pathetic production from Melky Cabrera are reasons why the Yankees cannot outslug their problems like they did in previous seasons. But, the offensive drop should’ve been predicted as the Yankees have an aging roster. So, the attention has to turn to the pitching. With all of these issues, the back of the rotation is a weak spot. It is the type of weak spot that can and will cost the Yankees a chance to make the playoffs during their last season in historic Yankee Stadium.  Brian Cashman needs to show, one more time, that he is one of the top GM’s in the game. Incredibly, his team was on the cusp of catching the Red Sox. Now, they are struggling, scrambling to fill three rotation spots. With just two weeks to go before the waiver trading deadline, Cashman must look at all options. For some reason, Cashman is slow to make changes unlike his deal for the three additions a couple of weeks ago. Time, unfortunately, is not on his side.

The Argument for Dan Giese

With Chien-Ming Wang lost for the season and Chamberlain’s status unclear, the Yankees are looking to fill three spots in the rotation.  Currently, the Yankees are trotting out Dan Giese, Sidney Ponson, and someone to replace Chamberlain and subsequently Ian Kennedy. First and foremost, Dan Giese should retain his rotation spot. Although he is a 31 year old journeyman, a look at his minor league numbers illustrates someone who can be a competent fifth starter. In his 10 minor league seasons, Giese has thrown 656.1 innings, given up 590 hits and has struck out 600 hitters. His 2.89 ERA and 1.09 WHIP during those 10 seasons shows someone who can effectively get batters out.

While he has been successful as a reliever this season (21.2 innings, 15 hits, 12 strikeouts with a 1.25 ERA), he’s been quite effective as a starter. In his three starts, Giese is 0-2. But, he has pitched well with 16.2 innings thrown, 12 hits given up, 5 walks and 13 strikeouts with a 3.78 ERA. With an excellent WHIP just north of 1.000, Giese has limited his base runners and has kept the Yankees in the game in two of his three starts.

Giese has obviously been labeled as a quad-A pitcher because of his lack of a fastball. However, his ability to locate his pitches and his above average slider makes him a decent option. He is not one to lead a staff, but he can be a decent piece of the puzzle as the fifth starter.

Other Internal Options

Assuming that Giese keeps the number five job, there are two spots to fill. The Yankees have to hope that Chamberlain can return soon. They do have to be careful with him as he is a potential Cy Young Award winner and has the type of dominant stuff to lead them for many years to come. If he is able to return, he automatically gets a spot. The absolute wrong thing to do would be to return him to the bullpen for the remainder of the season. That would cause more wear and tear on his arm. For argument’s sake, let’s prepare for the worst case scenario that Chamberlain will not come back. The Yankees have two spots to fill.

Other internal options include Darrell Rasner, Sidney Ponson, youngsters Jeff Marquez, Alan Horne, and Alfredo Aceves. None look desirable as the youngsters are clearly not ready as their Triple-A are not dominant. In fact, the Yankees best starter at Triple-A is one Kei Igawa who will never return to the Bronx.

Rasner, after getting off to a quick start, has really struggled with a 1.528 WHIP. Sidney Ponson is the poster child for never evaluating a pitcher on his win-loss record. Ponson is 3-2 for the Yankees, but that is in large part to great run support (with the exception of Monday night against the Twins). Many will point to his last two starts as reason to keep trotting out Ponson. But, a closer look at his numbers illustrate his ineptitude. Opposing hitters are batting .302 against him this season, but more importantly, they are slugging .440. The truest indication is his 1.539 WHIP which illustrates that he has far too many base runners to be truly successful. Time is running out on the Sidney Ponson as a decent starter option.

Phil Hughes is currently rehabbing from his rib injury. Hughes has the stuff to be dominant and should be handed a rotation spot if his rehabilitation goes well. Out of all the internal options, Hughes has at least had some dominant moments ranging from his near no-hitter against Texas last season (he had to leave because of a hamstring injury) to his dominant relief appearance in Cleveland during the playoffs. There is no guarantee that Hughes can contribute, especially when taking into account his early season performance, but he has the best chance of contributing out of all the internal options.

With Hughes being handed the third spot in the rotation (again, assuming Chamberlain is lost for the season) behind Pettitte and Mussina and Giese having a hold on the fifth spot, there is one spot left. One player that is receiving attention is Carl Pavano. As much as Yankees fans hate to hear the name, if healthy Pavano is a decent option. However, the Yankees cannot afford to bank on the oft-injured starter. If he contributes, that is a bonus, but he cannot be penciled in as an option. Instead of trying the rehabbing retreads that are currently in the Yankees’ system (Pavano, Eric Milton, and Victor Zambrano), the Yankees need to shop for the fifth starter. Unfortunately, because Cashman has been slow to react, there is one less cost-effective option out there.

External Options

This space was to be filled by the statistics of Paul Byrd who is now a member of the Boston Red Sox. Byrd is one of the hottest pitchers in baseball winning his last four starts while sporting a 1.24 ERA. The veteran right hander is not that dominant, but he would have been a definite improvement over the current options. For some reason, Cashman passed on Byrd, allowing the Red Sox to claim him. He went to the Red Sox cheaply, as the deal with either involve a player or just cash. Cashman missed out here and allowed the team he is chasing to get better. Most likely, Byrd was the best available. 

Another option would be lefty Jarrod Washburn. He was rumored to be all but traded before the July 31^st deadline, but the Yankees balked at the outrageous demands made by the Mariners (as they should have). If the Mariners lower their demands, Washburn is a candidate to be traded. It is more likely that Washburn clears waivers as he is under contract for the 2009 season. Although he is a below average pitcher, he is still an improvement over Sidney Ponson or Darrell Rasner. However, Cashman is correct to not give up much for Washburn, considering he will be on the payroll for 2009.

There will be other names bandied about, but most, like Greg Maddux and Bronson Arroyo, seem quite unrealistic. The pickings are slim, but they do represent improvement. Arroyo has been awful this season, throwing to a 5.44 ERA and a 1.507 WHIP. Going back to the American League wouldn’t improve those numbers. Gil Meche is more than likely a candidate to pass through waivers with his hefty contract, but it is unlikely that the Yankees (or any team for that matter) will want to get strapped with his contract.

Final Analysis

Perhaps this is the year the Yankees finally miss the playoffs. At this moment, they have just two reliable pitchers in Pettitte and Mussina. Those two cannot carry them into the playoffs. With three fifths of the rotation in shambles, Brian Cashman needed to move quickly. He didn’t so now the best bet is to just hope the system can help. If Joba Chamberlain just has tendinitis and is able to return, that makes the Yankees infinitely better as Chamberlain is as good as any starter in the league. If not, it makes the situation more precarious.

To have a legitimate chance at catching the Red Sox for the Wild Card, the Yankees must insert Phil Hughes in the rotation once he is healthy (he could be up this week although only able to throw 75 pitches or so). Dan Giese needs to be left in the rotation as well. He will have his moments, but his track record indicates that he will be an average number five starter. He’s not a name brand, but he can win games which is all that should matter. If Chamberlain returns, a rotation of Chamberlain, Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, and Giese is good enough to win the Wild Card.

Without Chamberlain, the Yankees will have more work to do. Ideally, Paul Byrd would’ve landed in the Bronx to solidify a rotation of Pettitte, Mussina, Hughes, (Byrd as the number four), and Giese. This isn’t reality so now the options become guys like Washburn, Meche, or Arroyo. Or, Carl Pavano could come out for his last month as a Yankee and pitch for his next big contract.   

It wasn’t drawn up like this at the beginning of the season. The Yankees expected to have a rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Mussina, Chamberlain, and either Hughes or Kennedy to lead them into another playoff appearance. Injuries and poor performances have altered that plan (Yankees’ radio voice John Sterling would say, “That’s Baseball for you”). Now, Brian Cashman has to decide his course. Does he try land a serviceable veteran or does he roll the dice with his young pitchers? The answer is, as usual, in the middle. He needs to fill one spot with his internal option (Hughes), fill another with that serviceable veteran (should’ve been Byrd, but might be Pavano, Washburn, or Arroyo), and have the vision to fill that fifth spot with his current fifth starter in Dan Giese. While it doesn’t guarantee the playoffs, it certainly gives more hope than the current rotation.