fullcountpitch.com

By Gary Armida

Some pending free agents are simply good. Others simply have good timing. In the case of C.C. Sabathia, he has both. First, he’s the best pitcher to hit the free agent market in years (and, he’s closer to Johan Santana than you think if Santana had hit the market) and he is in the midst of an incredible run that will make teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Cubs, Dodgers, and Phillies reach deep into their pockets. If Santana received $150 million from the Mets, then Sabathia could be looking at a $200 million dollar deal (or in that general neighborhood). Sound crazy? Well, in the real world it is crazy, but in the baseball world, it would seem to be the norm for the best pitcher in the game. Yes, who wouldn’t want to be C.C. Sabathia right about now?

C.C. Sabathia, the Milwaukee Brewer, is dominant. Since being acquired, Sabathia has started 9 games, going 8-0 during those starts. In an age where pitchers go the “five and fly” route, Sabathia has finished 5 of those 9 starts (giving him 8 complete games on the year out of his 27 starts). In 73 innings, he’s given up 60 hits, walked just 15 and has struck out 69. All of this is capped off by his dominant 1.60 ERA and his 1.027 WHIP.  Even with his horrible start to the season (1-4, 7.88 ERA through April), Sabathia’s season numbers are beginning to look like that Cy Young Award winner from a season ago. For the season, he is 14-8 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.157 WHIP. To compare, he won the Cy Young Award in 2007 with a 19-7 record and a 3.21 ERA and a 1.141 WHIP.

So, he’s good, but he has even better timing. With Johan Santana out of the mix, Sabathia is the only premier free agent pitcher for teams to battle over this winter. With the New York Yankees set to open a new ballpark and struggling with the pitching staff, look for Hank Steinbrenner to write a big check. The Red Sox will feign interest, but most likely bail out as they have a deep staff already. Look for the Texas Rangers to surprise everyone with a big bid. Texas has never landed a big pitcher and with that offense, they could contend for the Wild Card in 2009. The C.C. tour will begin just minutes after the last out of the World Series. If he continues this run and becomes this generation’s Rick Sutcliffe (he was traded from the Indians to the Cubs in 1984 and went 16-1 for the Cubbies to lead them to a division championship and winning the NL Cy Young Award despite making just 20 starts), he may be the most sought ought free agent ever. Perhaps that was slight hyperbole, but you get the idea.

Now, the price tag of $200 million was brought up earlier. Well, that is a realistic figure based on Santana’s salary. Sabathia (27) is two years younger than Santana (29 in case you can’t do math), but has pitched just one less season than Santana. Sabathia has pitched 120 more innings in his career as Santana was brought along slowly at the beginning of his career. Sabathia was immediately inserted in the Indians’ rotation at the age of 20. He’s made less than 30 starts only once in those 8 seasons which was in 2006 when he pulled his oblique muscle on opening day. With no history of arm troubles, Sabathia seems to be getting more durable as he progresses. He has completed 18 games over the past three seasons (including this one). In comparison, Sabathia’s 8 complete games for 2008 match Santana’s career total. While Johan Santana has a better strikeout rate, a better ERA, and a better WHIP, the difference is not great. Because Sabathia will hit the open market after a dominant stretch, he will cause a bidding war that may surpass Santana’s contract.

Detractors will say that Sabathia spit the bit during the 2007 post season. It’s true, he had close to a 9.00 ERA in his 15.1 innings. But, even Santana had a hard time during his first couple of post season starts (12 runs allowed during his first 14 post season innings). Others will say that Sabathia is out of shape and at risk to get worse with a long term contract. This is also true, but he is a pitcher who has never had an arm injury or even worry. This is a pitcher who’s ERA and WHIP has gone down in each of his last 5 seasons.  Not even Johan Santana can say that. In fact his WHIP has increased in each of the last 4 seasons. Santana is still technically the better pitcher, but the gap is not so great.

If Sabathia can pitch the Brewers into the playoffs and pitch representative baseball in the post season, he will many options. Best guess-Hank Steinbrenner convinces Sabathia to sign at $200 million dollars because he’ll be the first pitcher to throw a pitch at the New Yankee Stadium and that pinstripes are quite slimming. Before that happens, however, Sabathia will be in everyone’s rumor section, spoken about on every sports show and at every water cooler. Enjoy the simplicity of just pitching C.C.; you have no idea how crazy it’s going to get in three months.