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“If you Build It, He will Come”…and Please Hold On: The 2008 Brewers

By Gary Armida

“If you build it, he will come.” “People will come.” Those two lines, as every baseball fan knows, come from the famous movie Field of Dreams starring Kevin Costner (ok, no crying thinking about the “Dad, do you wanna have a catch?”). Those lines ring true for all baseball fans. You see, baseball fans are not stupid. In today’s economy and today’s parity driven sports world, fans will not plunk down their hard earned money to watch an inferior product. That is why teams like the Pirates, Nationals, and Royals rank at the bottom of their leagues in terms of attendance numbers (well, the Royals pretty much rank last in everything these days, don’t they?). One could hear the excuse of those three being small market clubs who cannot afford to play with the proverbial big boys of the league. Well, that excuse has been debunked historically by teams like the Twins and A’s. In 2008, one of the smallest small market teams, the Milwaukee Brewers are proving that small market teams can compete if they actually invest in their team. Owner Mark Attanasio (the best owner you’ve never heard of) bought the Brewers in 2004 when their payroll was an appalling $27.5 million dollars. For 2008, the Brewers final payroll will be in the neighborhood of $90 million. The results, you ask? For the first time in nearly two decades, the Brewers are in playoff contention (yes, they are fading, but they are still in contention) and a guarantee that they draw three million fans for the first time in franchise history. Yes, Attanasio proves that one must spend money to make money. His direction to spend wisely has allowed the Brewers to become one the model franchises in baseball today.

Fans aren’t Stupid

When the Brewers were in the middle of their 15 year losing streak their attendance ranked near the bottom of the league. Instead of going back to the County Park days, let’s just look at Miller Park since it opened in 2001. The inaugural season allowed the Brewers to draw 2.8 million fans, ranking 7^th in the National League for that season. This usually happens for teams during the first year of a new park as the curiosity factor is high for long time fans; this desire to see a new park will override a poor team for one season. The Brewers won just 68 games that season. Over the next two seasons, attendance would drop from the opening figure of 2.8 to 1.9 to a low of 1.7 million fans as the Brewers won just 56 and 68 games in those two seasons. Then, the best thing happened to Milwaukee. The Selig family sold the Brewers to Attanasio and his group. Immediately spending increased as did the product on the field. After a difficult 2004 season, the Brewers won 81 games in 2005, drawing 2.2 million fans.

While they took a step back in 2006 with just 75 wins, the fans came out in record numbers (2.3 million) as the Brewers had a young, exciting team with a plan in place under the Attanasio ownership and general manager Doug Melvin. The ‘07 squad drew 2.8 million fans as they stayed in contention until the last week of the season. This year, the Brewers, with six home dates left, project to draw over 3 million fans for the first time in franchise history.

The lesson of the story is quite simple. If one puts a good product on the field on a consistent basis, people will come (say that in your James Earl Jones voice for added impact).    

Economics 101

Mark Attanasio puts in practice the only truism in American business. Its cliché, but it is true-you have to spend money to make money. Attanasio understands that fans won’t come out to watch a team when it doesn’t trust the organization. The Brewers had that problem during the latter part of the Selig ownership. Attanasio immediately began to increase payroll while watching the talented Brewers farm system develop and begin to trickle into the major leagues. Once the talent arrived (Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, Bill Hall, and most recently Ryan Braun), the Brewers began to add veteran pieces like Jeff Suppan and make smart trades like acquiring Dave Bush from Toronto. Then, the youngsters started to blossom. In order to prevent the feeling of “they’ll be here until free agency and then head to the Yankees”, the Brewers began to look at long term contracts that would buy out a year or two of free agency. They seem to be following the Cleveland Indians of the early 90’s model when the Tribe signed their young core of Kenny Lofton, Jim Thome, Manny Ramirez, Carlos Baerga, and Albert Belle to deals before they hit free agency. So far, the Brewers have wisely signed Ryan Braun to a 7 year, $45 million dollar contract extension. Meanwhile (and rightfully so), the Brewers will make Fielder, Hardy, and Weeks prove that they deserve that money. The Braun signing is enough as it gives the fans a player who they can count on rooting for over the next 7 years.

While many fans bristle at the idea that Fielder doesn’t have a contract, the Brewers are correct in waiting on him. His homerun total is already drastically reduced (51 last season to 29 so far in 2008) so Fielder must prove himself to be a consistent hitter. While the Indians signed their entire core quickly, the Brewers are being a bit more methodical. One must in today’s high salary game. The Brewers are still a small market so they must invest wisely. Braun is a very wise investment.

Now that fans see that ownership is willing to invest, they are coming to the ballpark. This record attendance allows the Brewers to make a profit which in turns allows them to raise their payroll. Its simple economics, but many teams fail to realize this point. While they will never be able to compete financially with the Yankees, they can field competitive teams, capable of winning a pennant if they spend wisely.

This “new” model has allowed them to add Sabathia and take chances on players like Eric Gagne and Mike Cameron. Cameron is having a good season, Gagne is not. The 2008 payroll now ranks close to 14^th in all of baseball. As a result of this wise increased spending, the Brewers are relevant.   

The 2008 Brew Crew

The 2008 Brewers were coming an exciting 2007 season, even if they faded during the second half. For the first time in 15 seasons, the Brewers were a winning team. They finished 83-79, just two games behind the division winning Cubs. The Brewers were buoyed by rookie of the year, Ryan Braun and the prodigious power of Prince Fielder. With a solid, yet unspectacular staff, the Brewers were clearly a team on the rise.

2008 sees the Brewers holding that aforementioned wild card spot tied with the streaking Phillies. Unfortunately, the Brewers seem to be repeating the same pattern from last season as they have won just 3 of their last 14 games. They are in the midst of a ten game road trip before finishing with six games at home (3 against the Pirates and 3 to finish the season against the Cubs). With a solid run differential of +52, the Brewers are getting enough pitching to compensate for the loss of 30 homeruns in a down year from Prince Fielder. Ryan Braun has avoided the sophomore jinx by leading the Brewers in batting average, homeruns, RBI, slugging percentage, and OPS.

The real reason why the Brewers are in the race for a second consecutive year (even the Royals had one good year-2003 when they won 83 games. They won 58 the next season.) is that they were able to increase their payroll this season. In the offseason, the Brewers made some shrewd moves like signing Mike Cameron who was beginning the season with a 25 game suspension. That signing has worked out well as Cameron is still an excellent defensive centerfielder and has produced better than most thought with his 24 homeruns, 64 RBI, 16 stolen bases and his .846 OPS. They also added David Riske, Guillermo Mota, and Eric Gagne through free agency while picking up Solomon Torres in a trade with Pittsburgh to help solidify the bullpen. While Riske and Gagne haven’t panned out, Torres has become the closer, saving 27 games with a 2.68 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP and Mota has given them league average innings.

Perhaps the biggest signal that the Brewers were real players (and will be for years to come) was the acquisition of impending free agent CC Sabathia. As chronicled well on this site, Sabathia has been nearly unhittable for the Brewers, going 9-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. The trade involved top prospect Matt LaPorta who many believe will become an elite power hitter. Normally, small market teams hold onto these top prospects instead of dealing them for a rental player as the battle cry is always “we can’t afford to lose our young talent”. Well, the Brewers bucked that trend with this deal and opted to give their players (and perhaps more importantly, their fans) a chance at making the playoffs.

The results of the wheeling and dealing are the Brewers are on the precipice of making the playoffs for the first time since 1982. They have an offense that ranks 5^th in the league in runs scored, 2^nd in slugging percentage, 3^rd in OPS, and 6^th in stolen bases. Their pitching, lead by a solid rotation of Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, and Manny Parra, ranks 2^nd in team ERA, 4^th in batting average against, 4^th in WHIP, and 2^nd in quality starts.

As stated, the 2008 Brewers are holding onto the wild card spot for dear life. With somewhat difficult schedule to finish out the season-a double header on Sunday with the Phillies, followed by 3 games at Chicago and 3 games at Cincinnati before finishing the season at home with 3 against the Pirates and 3 against the Cubs, the Brewers will have to hope that they can right the ship before the Phillies can catch them.

In a desperate attempt to ignite the team out of their slide, the Brewers fired manager Ned Yost and replaced him on an interim basis with third base coach Dale Sveum. Normally, FCP’s stance is that firing a manager is useless as a manager is not the one hitting, pitching, and fielding. In this case, the Brewers made the right move as desperate as it is. With history seemingly repeating itself, the Brewers are young enough to be sparked into playing better with this shocking, almost unprecedented move. Sveum brings a calmer yet disciplined presence to the bench which may help relax the young team. They were sliding again with Yost so making the change is harmless considering the rumored clubhouse issues Yost had this season. It’s a bold move by an organization that is proving to its fans their commitment to winning.    

There are Still Challenges

The model is in place and the results are stellar. But, the Brewers are still a small market team. The upcoming off season has the potential to be disastrous. First, the top two starters are free agents. Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia will be the top pitchers available. Sabathia, in particular, will garner much attention (to the tune of $200 million). Ben Sheets, despite his injury history, will be a popular free agent.  While the Brewers could sign one of them, they more than likely will lose out on both. With Yovanni Gallardo working his way back from surgery, the 2009 Brewers will return Suppan, Bush, and Parra. While solid, they are a very weak top three, especially amongst the contenders. With Eric Gagne’s $10 million off the books, the Brewers could pool Sheets’, Sabathia’s, and Gagne’s money and land a frontline starter and ink a decent closer to shore up the pitching staff. With a young, talented offense, the Brewers will more than likely return the same lineup for 2009 barring any trades (look for Bill Hall to be on the move for some pitching help).

Closing Thoughts

As one can see there are plenty of challenges ahead for the Brewers. First, they must hold onto that wild card spot. Second, they must figure out how to configure their pitching staff for next season in a market where the Yankees have a boatload of money to spend. Luckily for Brewers’ fans and baseball, the Brewers ownership and management is willing and able to spend in order to field a competitive club. However this season winds up, the Milwaukee Brewers have a bright future with plenty of winning on the way.

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