Ladies and Gentlemen…We have a Series.

By Gary Armida

Well, it looks like we have a series after all. The Rays, who were 2-7 at Fenway Park this season, won game three in convincing fashion, pounding the Red Sox 9-1. Even more deflating for the Red Sox was the fact that Jon Lester was the one who got ripped for the first time in his playoff career (well, he got ripped for one inning anyway). With the Red Sox counting on Lester’s two games to be automatic wins, they now find themselves trailing 2 games to 1 and sending the veteran Tim Wakefield to the hill to try to even the series at 2. The Rays are sending the 25 year old Andy Sonnanstine to the mound for game 4. Sonnanstine has thrown 13 innings against the Red Sox this season and has given up zero earned runs in two no decisions. While the Rays seem to have momentum on their side, it is important to remember that the Red Sox have dug themselves holes in many post season series (they were down 3 games to 1 last year against Cleveland and most famously, they were down 3 game to none against the Yankees in 2004). In reality, there is more pressure on the Tampa Rays heading into game 4.

Quick Game 3 Breakdown

Game 3 was over rather quickly as the Rays were very aggressive against Jon Lester. The Rays scored one in the second on an Evan Longoria walk, a Willy Aybar single, a Jason Varitek passed ball, and a Dioneer Navarro groundout. In reality, Lester deserved better as Jason Varitek just flat out missed the pitch which was correctly scored as a passed ball. It was in the third where Lester lost control as he opened the inning by giving up a single to Jason Bartlett and then a double to Akinori Iwamura. BJ Upton followed with a three run homerun on a 2-1 pitch that Lester failed to get inside enough. After getting Carlos Pena looking, Lester served up a solo homerun to Evan Longoria on a terrible 2-2 pitch. Lester would settle down a bit, giving up just three more hits after pitching into the 6^th inning, but the damage was done.

Matt Garza continued his success against AL East opponents by giving up just one run (reliever JP Howell allowed the run to score on a Jacoby Ellsbury sacrifice fly) on five hits in 6 innings. He did walk 3, but he struck out 5. The Rays batters took control, which is not a characteristic that the Eastern Division Champions exhibited over the course of the season. The Rays’ top six batters went a combined 10 for 28 with 3 homeruns and 5 RBI. Rocco Baldelli, in the 8^th spot, added a 3 run homerun in the 8^th to put the game out of reach.

Managerial Decisions

Many baseball fans will argue that managers don’t mean much, but in a short series, a manager has a tremendous impact. Before getting to a Game 4 preview, here’s a quick analysis of two decisions made in game two that may ultimately decide the series.  

Leaving Beckett in to Struggle: In game 2, Red Sox manager Terry Francona left an obviously struggling Josh Beckett in the game to give up 8 runs in 4.1 innings. While the Red Sox came back to tie the game only to lose it in extra innings when Mike Timlin gave up a sacrifice fly to BJ Upton to end it in the 11^th , the decision proved costly.

It is completely understandable to stick with your ace, especially when that ace has been tremendous during his post season career. However, since Beckett has been nursing an oblique injury, he has clearly been struggling this post season (9.1 innings, 18 hits, 12 runs allowed). Terry Francona, a veteran of the post season, was obviously thinking that Beckett would be able to gut through the 5^th or 6^th thereby saving his bullpen. The decision backfired as the game went 11 innings and Francona ended up using six of his seven bullpen members in the game anyway.

The ultimate second guess would be for Francona to pull Beckett after the third inning. It is a decision that ultimately cost the Red Sox game 3 as their bullpen held the Rays scoreless from the time Beckett left until the 11^th inning.

The final analysis is that it isn’t advisable to stick with a less than 100 percent pitcher when he is struggling. With the opportunity to leave Tampa with two key victories (and deflating the young Rays), the decision to leave Beckett in allowed Tampa to stay in the game.

Leaving Dan Wheeler in to pitch 3.1 innings during Game 2: Yes, Dan Wheeler threw a wild pitch to allow the tying run to score after inducing a double play ball. But, after that errant pitch, he completely shut down the Red Sox. Wheeler hasn’t thrown that many innings since the 2005 NLDS when he threw 3 innings against the Braves as a member of the Astros. More importantly, Wheeler threw 48 pitches. It was a risky move for manager Joe Maddon to leave his best option as closer in the game for that long (Papelbon threw just 1.1 innings). By doing this, Maddon was risking that he would be without his closer for game 3.

The decision was correct for the Rays as winning game 2 was far too important. If they had fallen behind 2-0, they ran the risk of getting swept by the veteran Red Sox. Wheeler kept the desperate Rays alive for 3+ innings which allowed the Rays to chew through the Red Sox bullpen until they reached the Red Sox’ weak link, Mike Timlin. While Wheeler was probably not available for game three for anything more than a batter, Maddon’s decision left the Rays’ bullpen a bit fresher for game 3. Obviously, they were not needed.

Looking to Game 4

As stated earlier, the pitching matchup will feature the knuckleballing Tim Wakefield against the 25 year old Andy Sonnanstine. While Sonnanstine’s 2008 numbers are impressive against the Red Sox, he holds a 5.40 ERA in six career starts. Wakefield, meanwhile, is 0-2 this season with a 5.87 ERA in three starts against the Rays. Further complicating Wakefield’s record is the fact that he hasn’t pitched since September 28^th. A knuckleball pitcher must have the feel of the pitch in order to be successful. Wakefield will have to prove he has control early on in order for the Red Sox to have a chance.

Wakefield will have to pitch carefully to Akinori Iwamura as the diminutive second baseman is hitting .417 (10 for 24) against the knuckleballer. Of the Rays’ regulars with more than 15 at bats against Wakefield only Carl Crawford is hitting over .200 (.286) against him. Evan Longoria has just 6 at bats against Wakefield, but does have 3 hits. The Red Sox, not surprisingly, have a bit of trouble against Sonnanstine. David Ortiz (3 for 16), Dustin Pedroia (3 for 15), and Kevin Youkilis (1 for 12) have all struggled against Sonnanstine. Only JD Drew (4 for 11), Coco Crisp (3 for 10), and Jason Varitek (5 for 10) have had success. Complicating things for Terry Francona is that fact that Kevin Cash must catch Tim Wakefield as Varitek has not done so (and isn’t capable) in quite some time. Both bullpens are relatively rested at this point so look for both managers to have a short leash. Terry Francona, who wants to avoid going down 3 games to 1, will probably be aggressive with the pen. Justin Masterson will likely be a key for the Sox during game 4 as he is the one member of the bullpen capable of giving serious length.

Some Interesting Series Facts

• BJ Upton and Evan Longoria have combined for 9 post season homeruns. That is the most combined homeruns for a pair of teammates under 25. The previous record was held by the 1986 duo of Darryl Strawberry and Lenny Dykstra who had 6.
• Upton has 5 homeruns during his 30 post season at bats. He hit just 3 over his last 239 at bats during the regular season. Upton had an erratic season, but he seems to be harnessing his vast potential at the right time.
• David Price became just the 4^th pitcher to earn his first major league win in the post season.
• David Ortiz is 0 for 12 during this series. If the Sox have any chance of winning, Ortiz must morph back into Big Papi at some point.
• Kevin Youkilis’ 0 for 4 game 3 snapped a 9 game LCS hitting streak.
• Dustin Pedroia is 6 for 11 in the series with 1 double, 2 homeruns, and 5 runs scored. If the Sox win the series, he would be the LCS MVP.

Game Four is scheduled for tonight at 8:00 PM eastern time on TBS. In addition to the game we will all be treated to another 7 million Frank Caliendo promotions.

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