Talkin St. Louis Cardinals Baseball with Columnist Jeff D. Gordon

By Gary Armida

The St. Louis Cardinals are one of the model franchises in Major League Baseball. The team is a consistent winner (10 winning seasons in their last 13), they have a habit of making the playoffs, the ownership spends money on the product, they have a future Hall of Fame manager and pitching coach, they have the best player in baseball in Albert Pujols, and they may have the best fans in all of baseball. The franchise that some call “Baseball Heaven” has been a model of stability and the blueprint that many organizations try to emulate. When one has good ownership, good upper management, and good field management, an organization will tend to be competitive. Perhaps the 2008 Cardinals epitomized the entire organization as most experts picked the Cardinals to compete with the Pirates for the basement of the National League Central. As history proves, the Cardinals were in playoff contention for much of the year with names like Looper, Lohse, Wellenmeyer, and Ludwick backing the all-world talent in Albert Pujols. Credit has to be given to the Cardinals management, specifically manager Tony LaRussa and pitching coach Dave Duncan. With their expertise, the Cardinals surprised most baseball experts and finished 86-76. With the hot stove season underway, the Cardinals have many decisions to make. Luckily for St. Louis fans, the Cardinals organization is usually up to the task. FCP is joined by St. Louis Times Dispatch Columnist Jeff D. Gordon, who has covered the Cardinals since 1986, to give a closer look to the Cardinals’ 2008 season, their management team, their roster, and their plans for the future.

Season in Review

The 2008 Cardinals were a model of consistency despite many obstacles. In fact, the Cardinals posted just two losing months all season. Those two losing months were July and September, when the Cardinals were just 13-14 and 12-13 respectively. Despite having many questions in the lineup (middle infield and the entire outfield along with the rotation concerns) to begin the season, the Cardinals were able to compete for a variety of reasons. “Ankiel and Ludwick were still suspects coming into the season. When Rick was healthy, he was a huge factor. Ryan was one of the surprises of the season. The outfield offense, overall, was better than expected. Who thought Skip Schumaker could do what he did? Todd Wellemeyer emerged as a viable starter and Kyle McClellan carried a big bullpen role. He tired at the end, but he was one of the NL’s best rookie pitchers”, says Gordon.

Mr. Gordon makes excellent points. While Ankiel and Ludwick both enjoyed success in 2007, neither was labeled as a “sure thing” heading into the 2008 season. Ankiel got off to a great start before straining his abdominal muscle. Despite missing 42 games, Ankiel managed to slug 25 homeruns and drive in 71 runs with his .264/.337/.506 batting line. Ludwick had an even better season as he drove in 113 runs with his 37 homeruns and his .299/.375/.591 batting line. The 28 year old Skip Shumaker had a solid season as the everyday left fielder (.302/.359/.406). Perhaps the biggest surprise was Todd Wellemeyer who was made a starter after the Cardinals acquired him last season. In his first full season as a starter, Wellemeyer made 32 starts and had a record of 13-9 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.252 WHIP. That came from a reliever who had never posted an ERA below 4.00 in his career.

Along with the surprises, players like Troy Glaus and Albert Pujols had their typical season (which in Pujols’ case is an MVP type season). As a team the Cardinals finished first in hits and batting average in the National League. Additionally, they finished 2^nd in on base percentage and third is slugging percentage. On the pitching side, the Cardinals finished 7^th in ERA and 16^th (last) in strikeouts. The 2008 Cardinals did surprise, but that is a direct result of stellar management.

The Cardinals Way: A Solid Organization and Great Field Generals

The St. Louis management team is a group that is evolving to meet the ever changing baseball climate. Rather than get stuck in one method of scouting (the traditional methods or computerized scouting), the Cardinals are blending the two. Under Vice President of scouting and player development, Jeff Luhnow, the Cardinals are expanding their scouting practices and areas. “Jeff Luhnow believes in blending computer analysis, non-traditional scouting and old-school scouting. The Cards went heavy on college pitching for a while, but they aren’t ruling out high school hurlers any more. The team picked up its Latin American scouting in a big way and spent large dollars on young imports. This was a huge departure”, adds Gordon. This is a true indication of a solid organization. Many organizations like the A’s or Blue Jays get locked into one method of scouting. The Cardinals are adapting as well as keeping the “tried and true” methods of scouting. If one uses the best of both worlds, one gets a good, consistent team.

The Cardinals are led by Tony LaRussa and his longtime pitching coach, Dave Duncan. The tandem perhaps did the best job of their professional careers as neither had too much to work with. Duncan had a staff of two converted relievers, one starter who everyone passed on last winter, a Mariners’ castoff, and Adam Wainwright, the young ace. LaRussa put together a lineup which featured a few platoons, a weak hitting middle infield tandem, and many outfield options. In fact, 14 players received more than 150 at bats for the Cardinals in ’08. While some say that LaRussa over-manages a game (making various, unnecessary pitching moves), Gordon begs to differ. “He manages aggressively. He over-manages when the team loses and he out-manages his opponent when he wins. Given the teams he has generally had here – with lots of platoon players, versus eight strong everyday players – his approach has been appropriate. He uses everybody. In 2006, the Cards won because guys like Josh Kinney, Tyler Johnson, Scott Spiezio and So Taguchi stepped up.”

Dave Duncan has been with Tony LaRussa during each managerial stop. Duncan is widely regarded as one of the premier pitching coaches in the game. He earns this title by getting great production out of a variety of pitchers who failed in other places. 2008 proved to be another example of that as Duncan got tremendous production from the likes of Wellemeyer, Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper, and Ryan Franklin. Over the years, he has gotten pitchers like Jeff Weaver to perform well (in the 2006 postseason). “He sees what a pitcher can and can’t do. He tries to convince them to pitch to their strengths and clean up any obvious mechanical trouble. He also gives them a good game plan of how to pitch every hitter in every game. Every pitching coach tries to do the same thing”, says Gordon. While every coach does try to do the same thing, Duncan seems a bit better at it than most as his results seem greater with less pitching talent. One could compare his work to Leo Mazzone’s work in Atlanta. Sure, Mazzone’s staffs had better statistics than Duncan’s Cardinals, but Duncan never had Maddux, Smoltz, and Glavine to work with.

Why is Duncan so successful? Mr. Gordon states, “Duncan will tinker with mechanics, but he doesn’t try to change pitchers as much as some fans believe. He uses a positive approach and he can get a lot done when pitchers apply what he is preaching. Some young pitchers (Anthony Reyes!) aren’t as easily coached as the Loopers and Lohses are. A great example is Wellemeyer, who learned to resist his urge to overpower hitters (or at least try to) on every pitch. Location and movement are more important than sheer velocity in the bigs.” It seems that Duncan is good at teaching pitchers who are receptive and willing to pitch rather than throw. Sure, a pitching coach (and a manager for that matter) is only as good as his pitchers’ performances, but Dave Duncan appears to be a coach who teaches so much that it makes a difference.

Looking Ahead to 2009

The Cardinals did, indeed, surprise in 2008, but that won’t matter much if they fail in 2009. The Cardinals have many areas to address. According to Gordon, the two key areas would be middle infield offense and left handed relief. While those are two key areas, the Cardinals will have to also address their rotation as well as hope they get similar production out of Ludwick, Glaus, and Ankiel.

At the very end of their 2008 season, the Cardinals signed Kyle Lohse to a 4 year, $41 million dollar deal. On the surface, that seems like an overpayment for a 29 year old pitcher who had never posted an ERA below 4.00 before 2008 or a pitcher who has never given up fewer hits than innings pitched. Perhaps, however, Lohse is flourishing under Duncan much like Chris Carpenter who also never had an ERA under 4.00 before coming to the Cardinals in 2004 as a 29 year old. Gordon agrees with the signing of Lohse, “This free agent class is pretty thin, so there will be lots of overspending. The Cards believe Lohse has “plus” stuff, a good pitching approach and good durability. The staff believes his stuff is better than Suppan’s stuff, for instance. So the Cards gave Kyle the money the franchise would not give Jeff.” Given the fact that guys like Carlos Silva and Gil Meche received similar contracts, Lohse seems like a decent play especially since he, unlike the other two, is in the National League and seems to have a great relationship with Duncan.

Adam Wainwright leads the staff and is likely ready to assume the role of staff ace. Gordon states that he has the makeup necessary to head a rotation as well as a strong fastball/curveball combination. Wainwright’s statistics also show a pitcher on the rise as he posted an 11-3 record in 20 starts. In those 20 starts, he threw 132 innings and gave up 122 hits, only 34 walks along with 91 strikeouts. His 3.20 ERA and 1.182 WHIP are both improvements over his 2007 season tallies. Only a freak injury stopped Wainwright from being in Cy Young Award contention. The rest of the 2009 rotation will depend on the Cardinals offseason. Todd Wellemeyer will probably fill a spot and Chris Carpenter, if healthy, would also have a spot. With Braden Looper filing for free agency, the Cardinals do have one or two likely openings. Perhaps they shop the free agent pitching market (Derek Lowe makes a ton of sense) or they look to one of their young prospects in 22 year old Jesse Todd or 23 year old Clayton Mortensen. The prospects, although both reached triple-A last season, look as if another year of seasoning would be beneficial.

Obviously, the key to the Cardinals’ rotation is the health of Carpenter. When healthy, Carpenter is one of the top pitchers in baseball. Even in his brief return last season, Carpenter showed his prowess, posting a 1.76 ERA in his 3 starts. While the Cardinals have looked towards Wainwright as the new ace of the staff, they are still hopeful that Carpenter will be able to pitch well despite his nerve damage. Gordon agrees with the Cardinals, “He’s not done, because his elbow and shoulder joint are OK. The nerve issue is a mystery, though, and that puts a black cloud over the rest of his days. His durability will be an issue from here on out because this is a rare injury in baseball – and hard to treat.”

One immediate hot stove rumor was the idea that the Cardinals would make a play for Jake Peavy, the ace who is being shopped by the suddenly rebuilding Padres. Peavy does make the Cardinals instant favorites, but the Cardinals are unlikely to meet the Padres’ demands. First, the Padres would probably want someone like Wainwright as a return for Peavy. As talented as Peavy is, Wainwright is already too good and too young to trade for the former Cy Young Award winner. Gordon agrees, “San Diego wants to get back a young pitcher ready for its rotation, so it’s a tough fit for the Cards. The Padres would start by asking for Wainwright. Maybe McClellan would satisfy them, maybe not. Also, I would expect Peavy’s agent to demand any club acquiring Jake to pick up the $22 million option at the end of the contract. Jake has the no-trade leverage to make that happen. Given the money already invested in Carpenter, paying a second pitcher that sort of money would be risky. It appears the Cards would rather spend that money in other areas.” The idea of acquiring Peavy looks good to the average fan, but when one looks at the ramifications as well as the cost, the Cardinals would be better served looking to the free agent market to fill in their remaining rotation slots.

The bullpen does need some work, but it does have a group of young, talented relievers who could help the Cardinals compete in ’09. Youngsters Chris Perez, Kyle McClellan, and converted catcher Jason Motte will be the core of the bullpen. Perez looks as if he can close as he showed flashes of brilliance last season, specifically in the second half as he racked up 7 saves with a 2.50 ERA after the All-Star break. McClellan pitched brilliantly in the first half (2.94 ERA), but faded during the second half (6.46 ERA), most likely from overuse. The 26 year old Motte is an interesting case as he has found success as a pitcher after being drafted as a catcher. Motte pitched 11 major league innings and gave up just 5 hits and 1 run along with 16 strikeouts. That strikeout rate is similar to his minor league track record as he has 217 career strikeouts in just 164.2 innings. With those three and veteran Ryan Franklin (who found a home as a St. Louis reliever) as a core, the Cardinals will need to fill out the rest of the bullpen. They could look to bring back the 39 year old Russ Springer, but they would be better served to address their needs, specifically from the left side, this winter. Gordon is championing former Rockies reliever, Brian Fuentes, a popular choice this winter. Gordon reasons that the Fuentes serves two purposes, filling the Cards’ need for a left hander and also a reliever with closing experience who could either mentor Perez or share closing duties, “I’d spend whatever it took to land Fuentes as a free agent.” With middle relievers always flooding the free agent market, the Cardinals should be able to fill out the bullpen, especially since the Cardinals do spend money.

The offensive side is a bit clearer as Albert Pujols, Troy Glaus, and the Cardinals’ suddenly plentiful outfield options form a nice nucleus. As stated earlier, the second base and short stop positions must give more production than the Cards received in 2007 from Cesar Izturis, Adam Kennedy, Aaron Miles, and Felipe Lopez. Offensively, these are two positions that must be upgraded. “I like the idea of adding free agent Edgar Renteria for a year. He would change the look of the offense. It will be interesting to see what Rafael Furcal, Orlando Cabrera and Orlando Hudson command in the marketplace. Lopez might be worthy at second, backed by Miles.”  

Rick Ankiel is still a question mark for the Cardinals as his ceiling is unknown. Because the Cardinals have many outfield options (Schumaker, Ludwick, Chris Duncan, Brian Barton, Joe Mather, and prospect Colby Rasmus), 2009 will be a “make or break season” for Ankiel in terms of his long-term future with the Cardinals. Ankiel seems like a talented hitter, but is he talented enough for the Cardinals to invest long-term? “Good question. He tried to hit with an abdominal muscle strain, so that killed his numbers. And when he was healthy, he killed mistakes but didn’t hurt good pitching with any consistency. His potential is still vast, if he improves. But it is very difficult to gauge his long-term value, so signing him to a contract extension is tricky business. With Colby Rasmus on the rise, it’ll be interesting to see what the team does with Young Musial. Will the club let him play to free agency? Will the Cards deal him instead? We’ll see, but there is a big surplus building in the outfield.” Obviously, 2009 is an important season for Ankiel.

Perhaps the biggest key for the 2009 Cardinals lineup is the continued development of catcher Yadier Molina. Molina did hit .304 this season, but it came with little production (just 7 homeruns, 56 RBI and a .392 SLG). While Molina does not strikeout much, he must continue to develop better plate discipline, hit for a bit more power, and, obviously, continue to play strong defense. Oddly, Gordon adds, Molina’s defense was suspect in 2008. Gordon does believe that 25 year old will develop into a better run producer at the plate. If, however, Molina’s defense declines, he would be of no value to the Cardinals.

The Obligatory Albert Pujols Blurb

One cannot discuss the Cardinals without mentioning Albert Pujols. Pujols is the premier hitter in baseball (sorry A-Rod). His lone issue would be health. Last season, Pujols battled a ligament tear in his elbow. He battled to the tune of .357/.462/.653 with 37 homeruns and 116 RBI. Imagine the results with a healthy elbow. Although the elbow is hurting, Pujols is expected to be ready for spring training. “He insists the nerve problem caused more pain than the ligament tear. So he should be good to go this spring. He does admit the elbow WILL need surgical repair at some point in his life.”

While many superstar athletes are standoffish, Pujols seems to be the exception despite his killer game face. Gordon tells this quick anecdote, “He can be a pretty relaxed guy away from the stadium. He bowled with my kid’s soccer team once because he knew the coach. That game face does melt away.”

2009 Outlook

Many in the mainstream media will focus on the Cubs and Brewers as favorites for the NL Central. They would, however, be overlooking the Cardinals who may be in a more stable position going into the season. Sure, some things must go right for the Cardinals to compete, but they are not out of the realm of possibility. “If Carpenter pitches and the young relievers build on the late-season success, the Cards will be right there. Milwaukee is headed for a big overhaul and the Cubs, however powerful, have some flaws. Carlos Zambrano’s crash and burn makes you wonder about Chicago. The Cards must aim for another 10-victory improvement and go from there”, states Gordon. The Brewers are in precarious situation as they face the real possibility of losing both Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia and also having a bullpen without a reliable closer. The Cubs’ warts were exposed during their playoff series as they do not have a lineup capable of manufacturing runs. The Cardinals, with the right moves, do have a legitimate chance to compete.

Their planning is key as the ownership is willing to spend money. Gordon believes that the Cardinals will leave room in the budget (the payroll is likely to be around $100 million dollars) so they can add pieces during the season. This will allow GM John Mozeliak to make trades independent (for the most part) of money. “John Mozeliak will trade some of his outfield surplus to fill other needs. He will put the dead ’08 dollars (spent on injured and departed players) to more productive use. He will also hang onto most of his prospects and allow them to fill needs at the big league level as they arise. Those three factors ought to allow the Cards to win 10 more games and contend – as long as injuries don’t decimate the team.”

Closing Thoughts

The St. Louis Cardinals are an organization that appears to “get it”. They have a good farm system, allow their GM to spend money, allow their coaches to actually coach, and they have good talent. There is little doubt that the Cardinals, barring injuries, will compete in 2009. Fans cannot ask for better from their home team. The Cardinals will likely be active in the off season as they look to fill out their pitching staff and look to add a middle infielder or two. With an organization plan that works, look for the Cardinals to address most, if not all, of their needs before spring training.

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