Cooperstown Should Make a Moose Call

By Gary Armida

Mike Mussina announced his retirement after 18 years of stellar pitching. Mussina finishes his career with 270 wins and 153 losses. He started 536 games (with one relief appearance added in 2007). He threw 3,562.2 innings, gave up 3,460 hits, walked 785 batters, and struck out 2,813 batters. All of this came with a 3.68 career ERA and a 1.192 WHIP. Mussina finished his storied career with his first 20 win season in 2008. He retires without a Cy Young award and without a World Series ring even though he had a career 3.42 post season ERA. The five time all-star and seven time Gold Glove Award winner retires 30 wins short of the 300 win plateau which supposedly is an automatic entrance to Cooperstown. The debate about Mike Mussina began in earnest yesterday. In true FCP style, let’s take a thoughtful look at the Moose’s Hall of Fame credentials.

Dispelling the Wins Myth

As stated, Mike Mussina has some tremendous statistics, but some, specifically wins, fall a bit short of the old and quite frankly antiquated benchmarks. Wins are largely a team accomplishment and quite often a product of offensive run support and a good backend of the bullpen. For Mussina’s first 10 major league seasons, he was the ace of the Baltimore Orioles’ staff. During his time in Baltimore, the Orioles only had four seasons in which they posted a record over .500. A deeper look into Mussina’s win total reveals several key things. For one, he finished with 18 or more wins in six seasons, and 15 or more wins in 10 seasons. Besides his rookie year of 1991 when he made just 12 starts, he won at least 11 games in every season. So, while he didn’t win 20 until last season, he was the model of consistency for some bad Orioles teams and a solid pitcher for some good New York Yankees teams.  

Currently, there are 36 members of the Baseball Hall of Fame who have less than 300 wins. Even more specifically, there are 32 members who have less wins than Mike Mussina. So, if 300 wins are the benchmark, the Hall would more definitely be less crowded.

Hall Famers like Jim Palmer, Bob Feller, Al Spaulding, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Mordecai Brown, Waite Hoyt, Jim Bunning, Catfish Hunter, and Whitey Ford all have less wins than Mike Mussina. These legends of the game, some who played on better teams than Mussina did, won less games. Are they not Hall of Fame worthy? Of course they are Hall of Famers, but if they are judged by their win totals, they would not be. Is Mike Mussina good enough to be discussed with some of these legends? For most of them, the answer is yes.

Conversely, pitchers such as Don Sutton, Gaylord Perry, and Phil Neikro are Hall of Famers with 300 career wins. No true baseball historian would rank any of them as all-time great, elite pitchers. Yet, each one is in the Hall of Fame. They had good, consistent careers. Mike Mussina’s career is better than this group of Hall of Famers in so many ways excluding that win column. A pitcher’s win total should not be the sole basis of whether or not a pitcher is worthy of the Hall.

The Era

Mike Mussina had the misfortune of spending his entire career pitching at the height of the steroids era. FCP writer Billy Campione stated during the recent FCP podcast that, “The Hall of Fame writers seem to be making adjustments for hitters, saying that they will not vote for a steroids user. Well, why is that adjustment not made for pitchers?” Mike Mussina pitched when offensive statistics were highly inflated and the homerun was in style. There is a valid argument here that no Hall of Fame pitcher pitched in a tougher era than the one Mussina and his contemporaries pitched.  

Also, the fact that Mike Mussina pitched his entire career in the American League must be taken into account. Mussina, unlike his contemporaries Tom Glavine and Greg Maddux, did not have the luxury of facing the pitcher two or three times in a game. His 3.68 ERA is quite comparable to the supposedly certain future Hall of Famers Glavine (3.54) and Maddux (3.16). Yes, the ERA is higher, but if an adjustment is made for the league, Mussina may have actually performed better.

Even more important, Mussina spent his entire career in the American League East. Why is that important? Well, 11 of the 18 American League champions have been from the AL East. Mussina pitched for just two of those winners (the 2001 and 2003 Yankees). Mussina would face Boston, Toronto, and the Yankees (obviously, while he was in Baltimore) for the majority of his career. More often than not, he was facing one of the top offenses in Baseball. That 3.68 ERA has to be considered even more impressive. Additionally, consider that Mussina has a winning record against every American League team except the Yankees (who he, obviously, didn’t get many chances against the last eight years).

The Numbers Argument

Mussina ranks 66^th all-time in innings pitched, but he ranks 19^th all-time in strikeouts. Obviously, he was a better strikeout pitcher than given credit for as he had a 7.11 strikeouts per nine innings average for his career. He is 13^th all-time with a 3.58 strikeout to walk ratio, a sign of an elite control pitcher. Even with that supposedly high ERA, he does rank 20^th all-time in career ERA. Even more impressively, Mussina is 117 games over .500 for his career (remember, he was on some bad teams during his prime). All pitchers who are that many games over .500 are in the Hall of Fame with the exception of players who are not eligible yet. Again, there are pitchers in the Hall of Fame who do not have this resume.

The Legends Argument

Much of Hall of Fame voting is based on reputation. Mussina, for whatever reason, does not have the reputation of an elite pitcher even though he succeeded during the toughest era in baseball history. His statistics hold up well when compared to the pitchers already enshrined in Cooperstown.

When compared to these Hall of Famers, Mussina absolutely belongs. Sure, his ERA is the highest of the group, but, as stated previously, the era in which he pitched has to be weighted. But, the popular opinion will be that Mussina is a borderline candidate. Would anyone consider Juan Marichal or Don Drysdale a borderline Hall of Famer?    

Closing Thoughts

One of the best things about baseball is the debate over statistics and over a player’s worth. As Mike Mussina said during his press conference, “it makes for a good debate.” If one looks strictly at numbers, Mussina is likely a Hall of Famer. If one looks at the numbers and then factors in the era that he pitched in and the league he pitched in, Mussina is a Hall of Famer.

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