Making a Case for Oliver Perez
By Gary Armida
As discussed many times on this site, perception often becomes reality. As smart as baseball people can be, they are often misled by these untruths which result in poor decisions. This common practice is often seen during the free agent period. It happens every year-a player who is injury prone puts it together in his “walk year”. This leads to a bloated contract and generally a player who reverts back to his previous form. A similar situation is developing this off season as the pitcher who is attracting the most attention is AJ Burnett. Burnett is a talented pitcher, but given his injury history, he is far from a sure thing. With his demand of a five year contract, many teams including the Blue Jays, Yankees, and the usually smart Red Sox are considering making that commitment to the powerful right hander. Given his injury history which resulted in six trips to the disabled list during his 10 year career, this seems like an unwise investment. Similarly, Derek Lowe, a 36 year old sinkerballer, is seeking annual salary of $16 to $18 million per season. While Lowe has been consistent over the past four seasons, his age and the fact that he struggled during his last two years in the American League before signing with the Dodgers are warning signs. While these two are the supposed class of the free agent class, there is one pitcher who is younger than both aforementioned pitchers, who is a power pitcher, and who is a left handed pitcher with great potential. While he is a safer bet than either Burnett or Lowe, he is unlikely to receive the same contract that they will. So, if a team is looking for a solid middle of the rotation pitcher with high upside, they could do far worse than signing Oliver Perez. Yes, Mets fans, Oliver Perez may be the best pitcher, dollar for dollar, available on the free agent market.
Breaking the Myth of Ollie P.
Oliver Perez has many detractors. Many will say that he is prone to wildness. Others will say that he is very inconsistent. And still others will pontificate that he is far too volatile to be a reliable pitcher. All of those arguments cannot be ignored. They are based in truth. Perez can be quite wild and highly prone to allowing a walk. That was definitely the case in 2008 as Perez walked an astounding 105 batters in 194 innings. That total is completely unacceptable. However, that total does rank as his career high by over 24 walks (he allowed 81 walks in 196 innings in 2004 as a 22 year old). In truth, Perez does walk many hitters, but that is counteracted by the fact that he is one of the stingiest pitchers when it comes to giving up hits.
Even in his “down year” of 2008, he gave up just 167 hits in 194 innings. His average of 7.75 hits allowed per nine innings ranked 6th in the National League. He ranked 3rd in that category in 2007 with 7.78 hits allowed per nine innings. In other words, Perez is tough to hit, even tougher than to hit than Burnett, Sabathia, and Lowe were in 2008.
As far as the volatile argument goes, one just has to look at Perez’s performance in game seven of the 2006 League Championship Series to see just how well he performs under pressure. It’s important to remember that 2006 was a tough year of Perez as the Pirates tried to make him a finesse pitcher and then shipped him off to the Mets. None of that seemed to matter as Perez pitched 6 innings of one run ball, allowing 4 hits, just one walk, and striking out four batters. Of course, the Mets would go on to lose the game, but the young lefty made his mark as a big game pitcher. Yes, he can be volatile at times, but he has stepped up whenever the Mets have played a big game.
Ollie vs. “The Big 3″
The general perception is that CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Derek Lowe are the best free agent pitchers available. Ordinarily, Ben Sheets would be included on that list, but he is coming off of an injury from 2008 (the irony is, of course, that Burnett is just as injury-prone, but he was fortunate to make it through the season). Oliver Perez is, more or less, an after-thought in the free agent market. Most teams who are willing to spend money are waiting on the three “top” pitchers to land before moving on to Perez. This is a wrong move as Perez may be the best investment on the market.
When compared head to head to the other three pitchers, Perez fares well. First, Perez will be just 27 years old this season. Sabathia will be 28 years old, while Burnett and Lowe are both over 30 years old with Burnett at 32 years old and Lowe at 36 years old. Given age and the amount of innings Perez has thrown, he already represents a good value. Only Perez and Sabathia are in their prime of their career. Burnett is starting to get to the end of his peak years while Lowe is looking at his last big contract.
Perez is not the most talented in the free agent group. CC Sabathia gets that distinction as the left hander is an eight year veteran with 117 career wins with a 3.66 ERA and a 1.244 WHIP. Burnett is also a solid pitcher with 87 wins during his 10 years with a 3.81 ERA and a 1.284 WHIP. Lowe has had a much longer career than anyone in this group as he has pitched for 12 seasons. In those 12 years, he has amassed 126 wins, 85 saves, with a 3.75 ERA and a 1.268 WHIP.
Oliver Perez has amassed 55 wins in seven seasons. He has posted 4.39 ERA and a 1.425 WHIP. All of those statistics are, obviously, worse than the previous three pitchers. However, when looking at strikeout rate, Perez is clearly the leader. In his 999.1 career innings, Perez has struck out 1,027 batters, better than a strikeout per inning. That is quite a bit better than the other three as none have more strikeouts than innings pitched.
Who to Choose?
When Perez is compared to Sabathia, one sees some similarities. First, they are both left handed power pitchers. Both are still in their mid-20’s and both have had some success. As far as pure pitching performance goes, Sabathia wins this battle. It’s not even that close. If a team has the financial means to sign Sabathia, they should do so. But, there is some risk with Sabathia that does narrow the gap a bit. First, it is going to take close to $140 million to sign Sabathia. Second, the Brewers used him quite a bit last season, throwing him on short rest for the entire month of September. In fact, Sabathia has thrown nearly 200 more innings than Perez in these last two seasons alone. Given Sabathia’s conditioning, a red flag must be raised. So, signing Sabathia should be the move, but it does come at a risk when compared to the contract that would be required for Perez’s services.
AJ Burnett is an interesting study in the idea of perception. Burnett is a talented pitcher, but he is quite unreliable. As stated previously, he has been placed on the disabled list six times during his career. Even more troubling, his DL stints have all been either right elbow or right shoulder related. Burnett has only made more than 30 starts in a season twice in his career. That statistic is a direct result of injury. Additionally, his performance is a bit overrated as well. Unlike Sabathia, Burnett has never been dominant over the course of a full season. Burnett has never had an ERA under 3.00 and has also had trouble with the strike zone having in the top four in wild pitches thrown and in the top eight in walks allowed in a season. Perez, on the other hand, has only been on the disabled list twice during his career. Neither stint was the product of an arm injury. One stint was for back stiffness while the other one was for a broken bone in his foot. With no history of arm troubles and as a pitcher who is building his inning count, Perez looks to be the better value. He has a similar chance to be just as dominant as Burnett, if not more so given the fact that he is younger, left handed, and has a better health history. Burnett is looking for a 5 year contract worth close to $20 million per season. With Perez’s contract likely a bit less, he is a much better signing as even if he did sign a 5 year contract, he would be just 31 years old at the end of the deal as opposed to 37 like Burnett.
Derek Lowe is a solid competitor. His penchant for pitching big games in the post season is commendable. But, he is 36 years old and is said to be looking for $18 million per season and a contract of 4 years or more. Lowe has been a good pitcher for Dodgers, consistently posting ERA’s in the mid-3’s and WHIP’s around 1.2. He’s thrown over 200 innings in three out of the last four seasons (199.1 in 2007) and has won at least 12 games in each of the last seven seasons. His 3.33 career post season ERA is just another reason to like Lowe. However, he does come with some warts. For one, his age is a question mark given his contract demands. Yes, he is a sinkerballer which helps, but he cannot be considered a wise investment towards the end of a 4 year contract. Also, if he does come back to the American League (his biggest suitors are rumored to be the Yankees and Red Sox), his previous performance in the AL cannot be ignored. In his last two AL seasons (2003 and 2004), Lowe posted ERA’s of 4.47 and 5.42 with WHIP’s of 1.416 and 1.615. Perez has actually pitched quite well against the American League as evidenced by his career statistics in interleague play. In 19 interleague starts, Perez is 9 and 6 with a 3.66 ERA. In 120.1 innings, he gave up just 96 hits, 56 walks, and struck out 113 batters. Because Perez is ten years younger and has a better chance of being dominant, a team would be wise to invest its money in Perez rather than the veteran Lowe.
Closing Thoughts
Oliver Perez is not the best pitcher in baseball or the best pitcher available on the free agent market. He is, however, a power left handed pitcher with a high upside. Given the right circumstances and proper guidance, he could develop into a front of the rotation starter. Even if he doesn’t, he is a solid middle of the rotation starter. With his work ethic, plus-fastball, and his youth, Perez could be an asset to any team. A team would be better served to sign Perez to a four or five year contract worth about $15 million per season. Yes, it is a lot of money and quite risky. But, that investment is much safer than ones that teams will make in AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe.
