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Hopefully the Yankees Have Plan B…or Plan C

By Gary Armida

Even the best laid plans can fall apart despite great preparation. After missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, the Yankees were set to spend a ton of money to revamp the starting rotation and launch them back into the playoffs as they christened the “new” Yankee Stadium. They were quite aggressive, reportedly offering CC Sabathia $140 million dollars to be the ace of the staff on the very first day of free agency. It seemed to all make sense. With a ton of room in the budget, it looked as if the Yankees were in the perfect position to rebuild the staff quickly. If they took care of Sabathia quickly, they could sign another free agent starter like a Derek Lowe or AJ Burnett. While this plan could still come to fruition, it is looking less likely that the big left hander wants to pitch in New York. Yes, Sabathia has not accepted this record breaking offer and could now be courted by the Los Angeles Angels. Because the Yankees are waiting on Sabathia, they may be losing ground on other free agent fronts such as Burnett or even Andy Pettitte. While the possibility of Sabathia becoming a Yankee is still there, the Yankees may need to move forward without him if his decision is not made soon. The problem is that moving forward has very limited options. Hopefully, there was some sort of contingency plan.

If Sabathia wanted to be a New York Yankee, he would have already accepted their offer which would yield a similar annual salary to that of Johan Santana. No other team, not even the Angels, will be able or willing to match that contract. Sabathia has many reasons for not wanting to come to New York. First and foremost is the fact that he has a home in California. Secondly, having pitched in the Midwest his entire career, the bright lights of New York may not be appealing for the talented left hander. Plus, Sabathia figures to get a very nice contract with whatever team he chooses.

The consequences of making the Yankees wait are quite large for the Yankees. For one, they are focused on Sabathia while other teams are focusing in on AJ Burnett and Derek Lowe. With teams like the Red Sox and Blue Jays in the mix, the Yankees would seemingly be heading towards a bidding war. If Sabathia is not on the staff, they would be desperate to land one of them thus forcing them to simply overpay in terms of dollars or, more importantly, years. So, the Yankees need to push the issue now or move on in order to upgrade their team for 2009. If Sabathia balks or bolts for the West Coast, the Yankees need to move quickly.

Plan B?

The Yankees would then turn their full attention to Burnett and Lowe. The issue here is that the Red Sox are in on both pitchers while the Blue Jays are considering offering Burnett the five year deal he covets. On the periphery of the Burnett sweepstakes are the Braves, Mets, and the Orioles. Lowe seems to have a ton of interest as the conventional thinking is that he will command less years and is a safer option given his durability and post season success. Lowe has already stated his intention that he wants to return to Boston. The Yankees will have to overpay to land him. Burnett is a bit of a wild card as he has not stated a preference. Given his injury history, Burnett is quite a risk and cannot be relied upon to lead a staff.

Even if the Yankees land one of the two, they are not acquiring the staff ace that was sorely missed in 2008. Yes, they look as if they are upgrading, but both come with some warning signs (Lowe’s poor performance during his last two seasons in the AL and Burnett’s injury history). With neither a lock to come to the Bronx, the Yankees may have to look a bit deeper to fulfill their needs.

As discussed previously, Oliver Perez may be a wiser investment than Lowe or Burnett (read here). But, even Perez is not the staff leader needed as he is more of a middle to back of the rotation starter. Ben Sheets is a number one type pitcher, but he is even more of an injury risk than AJ Burnett. Other names like Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland represent the “best of the rest”. In other words, there are few difference makers available.

The other complication is that of Andy Pettitte. It was widely assumed that Pettitte would either retire or pitch for the Yankees. If Sabathia is signed, bringing back Pettitte is not a priority, but more of a luxury. If Sabathia isn’t signed, the Yankees will need the veteran left hander to return. But, recent reports have Pettitte having more than a couple discussions with Joe Torre. With Pettitte a bit upset at the Yankees for supposedly being put on the backburner, it looks like he will at least entertain the idea of pitching elsewhere. The Dodgers are a good fit for Pettitte given the former Yankees coaching staff and the Dodgers need to fill out their rotation with a proven veteran.

This situation will force the Yankees to decide on Pettitte sooner which makes a return to the Bronx a bit more likely.

Plan C

With the possibility of going 0 for 3 with the big free agent pitchers and little else available, Brian Cashman will be scrambling to upgrade the pitching staff. With no impact free agents available, Cashman will need to be a bit creative. First, he must re-sign Andy Pettitte despite the left hander coming off his worst season as a professional. With a healthy Chien Ming Wang and a young, but potentially dominant Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees’ top three are a solid, but unspectacular bunch. That leaves two rotation spots to fill. But, now, the Yankees will be filling those spots with less talented pitchers. With a rotation of Wang, Chamberlain, Pettitte, a free agent, and Hughes (he ideally would spend all season in triple-A), the Yankees could have a rotation just good enough to win if the offense produces. If they are going to be dependent on offense, some things must improve.

In 2008, the Yankees finished 7^th in the league in runs scored and 6^th in slugging percentage. On the pitching side, they finished 8^th in ERA. With Chien Ming Wang making just 15 starts, the rotation was hurt more than originally thought. But, the fact is that the Yankees’ offense and defense were bigger culprits for the 2008 playoff miss. If Sabathia is not an option, the Yankees will be better served to upgrade the offense and defense. The obvious answer is Mark Teixeira who is a gold glove, switch hitting first baseman who will lengthen the lineup. With the money earmarked for Sabathia, the Yankees could land Teixeira to plug the hole in the middle of the order and at first base. With Teixeira signed, the Yankees have trade options with their surplus of outfielders. Or, they could simply plug in either Nick Swisher or Johnny Damon in centerfield and live with their defensive deficiencies while enjoying a well-rounded lineup. Without the upgraded pitching, the Yankees will need one more power bat in the order so Teixeira is the best option available on the offensive front.

Plan C Trade Options

If Teixeira is signed, the trade avenues do open up a bit. First, the Yankees could check in on the Mariners to discuss the availability of Erik Bedard, who has fallen out of favor in Seattle. In fact, as previously reported, the Mariners are having discussions as to whether or not to simply release Bedard (it’s doubtful that he will be released). A package of Hideki Matsui and a couple of minor leaguers could land the left hander. In fact, one could see the Yankees giving up any prospect besides Phil Hughes to acquire the lefty ace who just a year ago was a more attractive option than Johan Santana (his ERA’s the last three seasons were 3.76, 3.16, and 3.67).

If Seattle proves fruitless, the Yankees could revisit the Royals’ rumored proposal of David DeJesus and Zack Greinke for Robinson Cano. DeJesus is the ideal centerfielder for the Yankees and Greinke represents a talented, yet questionable starting pitcher who is just 24 years old and coming off of a 202.1 innings with an ERA of 3.47 season. Unlike Bedard, Greinke is not an ace, but he would be a solid fourth or fifth starter while DeJesus would shore up the Yankees’ outfield.  Second base is a luxury position for offense, but the Yankees could replace Cano with another free agent like Orlando Hudson (again, nice upgrade on defense) or Felipe Lopez. This trade seems highly unlikely, but the rumor is worth mentioning.  

They could get into the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, but, again, they cannot afford to trade Phil Hughes in any trade. The Yankees could center a package around prospect Austin Jackson and pitcher Ian Kennedy, but Peavy doesn’t want to pitch in New York, just like Sabathia. With the number one pitcher trade market a bit dry, the Yankees will need to upgrade their team in a different way.

There are a myriad of trade options as Brian Cashman has built the Yankees’ depth to the point where he can afford to trade a couple of prospects (especially single-A and rookie league players) for major league ready talent.

 Closing Thoughts

Sabathia signing elsewhere would be disastrous to the Yankees as their entire off season plan was based on his acquisition. Ideally, the Yankees sign Sabathia and then acquire another pitcher from the pile of Burnett, Lowe, and Perez. If that happens, the Yankees are contenders and will no longer be so dependent on offensive power. Offensively, they would have a lineup capable of scoring runs, but one that has just one true power hitter in the order. The rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Lowe/Burnett, Chamberlain, and Pettitte/Hughes would be one that can win despite a middling offense.

But, if the nightmare scenario becomes reality, the answers are not quite as clear. At that point, the Yankees will have to upgrade the offense as the lineup will need to overcome that 8^th ranked team ERA.

CC Sabathia, whether he realizes it or not, is holding up the entire free agent market. All of the other starting pitchers have to wait for him to establish their market. Burnett seems ready to make a boatload of money depending on where Sabathia ends up. Once Sabathia chooses his new home, the Yankees will need to adapt, either adding another arm to complement him, or to  move quickly to fill two spots in the rotation and upgrade the offense.

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