The Phillies and Rays’ Biggest Challenge In 2009

By Gary Armida

With the World Series having ended over a month ago, both combatants are busy preparing for the 2009 season. The Phillies are enjoying their first World Series title since 1980 while the Rays are simply enjoying their first .500 season. But, as both begin to fill holes for another run in 2009, both teams face the same issue. No, it’s not that both teams need a starting corner outfielder or that the Phillies will miss Chase Utley for six months due to hip surgery. No, the problem is a direct result of their 2008 success. Both teams rode tremendous pitching performances into the Fall Classic. The Rays’ team ERA of 3.82 ranked second in the American League while the Phillies’ ERA of 3.89 was fourth in the National League. Both teams featured young pitchers who pitched more innings in 2008 than they have ever pitched in their lives (combined with their post season numbers). While the 2008 season was a success, recent history illustrates that both teams are heading for some tough times in 2009. Evidently, there is a price for victory.

For the Rays, the cost of going to the World Series was taxing on the pitching staff. Four of the five members of the starting rotation pitched a career high inning total. James Shields threw 240 total innings, surpassing his career high of 215. Matt Garza threw 209 combined innings, far surpassing his career high of 84 just a season ago (although he did throw 92 in the minors last season as well). Andy Sonnanstine threw 210 innings compared to 130 during his rookie season (along with 71 minor league innings). Even Edwin Jackson threw 20 more innings than he did in 2007. Only an early season DL stint for Scott Kazmir prevented him from throwing a career high inning total.

For the Phillies, their price of winning a title is significant because of just one person. Their young ace, Cole Hamels, led the Phillies to a title with an incredible post season performance. Hamels, one of the top pitchers in baseball, far surpassed his career high inning total of 2007 (183.1) by throwing an incredible 262.1 innings in the 2008 regular and post season combined. 79 more innings is quite significant for rising 25 year old left handed star. The Phillies are quite suspect in their rotation following Hamels which makes the health and production of the southpaw even more important.

Just how devastating is the additional workload on a pitcher? Below is a chart illustrating the overall impact on throwing a high number of innings can have on the following season. The chart uses the total innings thrown during the regular season and post season and compares that to the inning total during the following season. WHIP ((walks + hits)/innings pitched) is used as it illustrates the number of runners allowed by a pitcher.  

Pitcher	WS INN	Next YR INN	WS WHIP	Next YR WHIP
John Lackey	232.2	204	1.348	1.417
Kurt Rueter	226.2	147	1.267	1.476
Josh Beckett (FLA)	192.1	156.2	1.324	1.219
Curt Schilling (Bos)	249.1	93.1	1.063	1.532
Mark Buehrle	260	204	1.183	1.446
Chris Carpenter	254	6	1.068	1.667
Jeremy Bonderman	234.1	174.1	1.299	1.382
Josh Beckett (Bos)	230.2	174.1	1.141	1.187
Jeff Francis	232	143.2	1.379	1.483

The impact is quite obvious as every pitcher, with the exception of Josh Beckett with the 2003-2004 Marlins had a higher WHIP. Most of the pitchers on this list found themselves on the disabled list at some point following their World Series appearance. In the case of Chris Carpenter and Curt Schilling, both lost most of their respective seasons after being post season heroes just months before.

It will be interesting how the Phillies handle the workload of Cole Hamels. At this point, the Phillies will return Brett Myers, Kyle Kendrick, and Joe Blanton to back the young ace. They are reportedly interested in free agents Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and Jamie Moyer (who led their team in victories last season). The Phillies do have prospects Carlos Carrasco and JA Happ as possible candidates for the rotation. However, none are better than Hamels who will once again be counted on to lead the staff in 2009. If Hamels suffers the typical setback, the Phillies’ 2009 chances of returning to the post season are quite slim.

The Rays have an even bigger problem as key rotation pieces Shields and Garza pitched quite a bit more in 2008. Both raise a red flag when projecting the Rays in 2009. Having thrown over 60 more innings in 2008 is alarming. Most organizations try to limit their pitchers to just 40 additional innings each season. While each pitcher for the Rays did manage to stay close to that limit, the stress of a post season where every pitch means more and the fact that their season went a month longer are big stressors on an arm. With Scott Kazmir an injury risk each season and David Price’s workload likely to be closely monitored, the Ray’s rotation, a 2008 strength, may be a tremendous question mark in 2009.

The tougher judgment is the effect on a team’s bullpen. Relievers tend to fluctuate every season so the impact of additional innings is tough to assess. But, when looking at a pitching staff after making a World Series appearance, one can see that there must be some impact. Below is a chart that details a team’s ERA and strikeout total during the World Series year and the following year.

Team	WS YR ERA	Next YR ERA	WS YR SO	Next YR SO
2002 Angels	3.69	4.28	999	980
2002 Giants	3.54	3.73	992	1,006
2003 Marlins	4.04	4.10	1,132	1,116
2004 Red Sox	4.18	4.74	1,132	959
2004 Cardinals	3.75	3.49	1,041	974
2005 White Sox	3.61	4.61	1,040	1,012
2005 Astros	3.51	4.08	1,164	1,160
2006 Cardinals	4.54	4.65	970	945
2006 Tigers	3.84	4.57	1,003	1,047
2007 Red Sox	3.87	4.01	1,149	1,185
2007 Rockies	4.32	4.77	967	1,041

Every team except the 2004 Cardinals had an increase in ERA the following season. While strikeouts stayed relatively close, most teams gave up an average of a half of a run more the following season. With teams getting worse starting pitching, the bullpen becomes more taxed which leads to higher run totals.

Closing Thoughts

Getting to and winning a World Series is the ultimate goal. A team should always go for the title. But, there are always consequences for winning. In the past eight years, there hasn’t really been a team who has handled this situation well. A look at the late 90′s and early 2000′s Yankees and Braves doesn’t really give a ton of insight either. One could draw the conclusion that each team added a pitcher to the rotation each season. For example, the Yankees added Roger Clemens in 1999 and then added Mike Mussina in 2001. The Braves had Steve Avery and then Denny Neagle. But, the core of the pitching staff, especially the starting staff, was the same. The problem is almost a situation with no correct answer. The Rays have stated that they are going to really slow their pitchers down during spring training, perhaps have them miss one or two starts. They have also reportedly told their pitchers not to throw a ball until January 1^st. That strategy may help, but it does raise flags about condition once the season begins.

Perhaps the only proven way to combat this problem is to build depth. Adding a 6^th starter (long reliever who is capable of starting) or having a few minor league prospects ready to contribute could allow the team to withstand the inevitable breakdown or loss of quality. Otherwise, a team is stuck hoping that their pitcher can avoid this trend.

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