Detroit Tigers: Right Idea, Poor Execution

By Gary Armida

During the 2007 Winter Meetings, the Detroit Tigers were very aggressive. They made the biggest splash of the meetings when they acquired Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis from the Florida Marlins. While the names were big, the acquisition of Cabrera didn’t have a significant impact as Detroit already had a prolific offense. Instead of addressing their pitching needs, their offense was, once again, quite good in 2008 while their pitching predictably struggled. On the first day of the 2008 Winter Meetings, the Tigers are once again in the news. This time around, they are not making a big name splash. Instead, the Tigers acquired a cheap starting catcher in Gerald Laird in a trade with the Rangers by giving up 25 year old pitching prospect Guillermo Moscoso and 18 year old pitching prospect Carlos Melo. In addition, Detroit then signed veteran shortstop Adam Everett to a 1 year $1 million dollar contract. With these two acquisitions, the Tigers spend approximately $3 million dollars to plug their two holes in their starting lineup. Seemingly, this will leave money for the Tigers to address the need they neglected a year ago-their pitching. The acquisitions are serviceable, but the cost of acquiring Laird may have been too high considering his expected production. In other words, the Tigers had the right idea, but may have executed it poorly.

Right Idea

As stated, the Tigers made a move that resulted in a ton of headlines and unrealistic expectations a year ago. Their offense was already powerful; adding the talented hitting in Cabrera was not going to make it that much better. The results were as predicted. The Tigers finished fourth in the American League in runs scored (821), batting average (.271), on base percentage (.340), and slugging percentage (.444) while finishing second in the league in homeruns (200). Their pitching finished 12^th in the league in ERA (4.91), 11^th in strikeouts (991), 11^th in homeruns allowed (172) and 12^th in walks allowed (644). The last thing the Tigers need to do is spend money on more offense. This is especially true given the fact that the Tigers have publicly stated that they are not increasing their budget for 2009.

The two acquisitions do two things for the 2009 Tigers. One, they both come quite cheaply. Both players will start and provide above average defense, something the 2008 version of the Tigers lacked. Secondly, they fill their lineup with players who won’t represent a huge drop off from the production the Tigers received in 2008. With two spots in the order filled at a discount (especially compared to the salaries of last year’s starters, Edgar Renteria and Ivan Rodriguez), the Tigers may be wisely looking to upgrade their pitching staff.

With the extra money in the budget, the Tigers have many pitching holes to fill. With a projected rotation of Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman (who looks to be ready for spring training following rib surgery), Zach Minor, Armando Galarraga, and either Nate Robertson or Dontrelle Willis (of course barring any acquisitions), the Tigers are hoping for rebound years from Verlander and Bonderman to lead the staff. The starting staff could use an additional arm, but the bullpen is the true need. Only right handers Freddy Dolsi and Aquilino Lopez return as pitchers who had ERA’s less than 4.00 last season. Joel Zumaya is talented, but he cannot be counted on to stay healthy. That leaves incumbent closer, Fernando Rodney as the only semi-reliable reliever.

With the money saved on offense, the Tigers could target a closer like Kerry Wood or Trevor Hoffman as both are likely to command just a one or two year deal. Better yet, they could target a couple of middle relievers like Juan Cruz, Keith Foulke, Brandon Lyon, or Matt Wise to upgrade their relief corp. If the Tigers can address the pitching staff with at least two signings, then their first day of the 2008 Winter Meetings is somewhat successful. It is termed “somewhat successful” as the Laird acquisition in particular came at a high price.

Wrong Execution

The Tigers traded two power pitchers in order to acquire the services of Gerald Laird. In acquiring Laird, the Tigers are getting a 28 year old catcher who has a career batting line of .255/.306/.383 line. Laird hasn’t had the opportunity to play every day during each season of his career, but played in 120 games in 2007 and 98 games in 2008. In 2007, Laird hit .224/.278/.349 in 407 at bats. He hit 9 homeruns, walked 30 times and struck out 100 times. In 2008, he hit .276/.329/.398 with 6 homeruns, 23 walks, and 63 strikeouts in 344 at bats. Those numbers represent a serviceable catcher especially when his above average defensive skills are factored in. Laird will not hit like Ivan Rodriguez (.295/.338/.417 with Detroit in 2008), but he is an upgrade over Brandon Inge who was the primary catcher after Rodriguez was dealt to the Yankees. Laird’s acquisition likely means that 23 year old prospect Dusty Ryan gets more time to develop in triple-A, something that should benefit him in the long run. But, beyond 2009, this trade may actually hurt the Tigers.

Guillermo Moscoso is a 25 year old power pitcher who has amassed 278 strikeouts in 260.2 minor league innings. In those 260.2 innings, he has given up just 220 hits, just 56 walks with a 2.82 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP. Moscoso is a starter, but he seems to project as a reliever. He has great control of his 93 MPH fastball, but he lacks a good secondary pitch (his curveball and changeup are widely regarded as below average). Although he has a good fastball, he does come with the dreaded level of “injury prone” and the fact that he has never pitched above double-A ball despite his advanced baseball age. The Rangers do well acquiring this power-control pitcher, but they do have to worry that the fly ball prone pitcher may have some trouble in Arlington.

The second prospect is an interesting case as Carlos Melo is just 17 years old. Melo pitched just 49 innings in the Dominican Summer League. He gave up 46 hits and walked 20 with a 5.20 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. But, those numbers came with 61 strikeouts. Melo is way too young to have an accurate read on his future, but young power pitchers are quite rare. Melo reportedly throws around 96 miles per hour. It will be many years before (if ever) Melo steps foot on a major league mound. But, given the immense raw skills of the teenager, the Rangers take a very good chance given the fact that they deal just one catcher, an area of strength. The Tigers may get better major league production in 2009 with Laird, but the Rangers get two hard throwing, young pitchers who may help long-term.

Closing Thoughts

To put it simply, the Tigers give up too much for Laird. Laird is a solid catcher, but at 28 years old with a limited track record of a full season of success, he is not a difference maker. Adam Everett is a defense-only short stop who will provide production slightly less than what the Tigers received from Edgar Renteria in 2008. With the presence of Ramon Santiago, the Tigers have a cheap combination at shortstop. If the Tigers use that savings to address the bullpen, the two moves do have positive value for 2009. Do they make the Tigers a contender for the Central Division crown? It depends on who they sign to fill the pitching deficiencies.   

But, for long-term value and in terms of the amount of talent exchanged, the Rangers win out on this trade. The Tigers give up an arm in Moscoso who could’ve helped them out of the pen in 2009 and some long-term potential in Melo. The Tigers had the right idea to cheaply patch their offense given the depth, but they have seemingly executed wrong by trading two plus arms. It will be interesting to see how the Tigers complete their 2009 makeover as a result of their moves.

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