Winter Meetings, Day Two: K-Rod a Met, Dodgers, O’s/Reds Trade, Rumor Control

By Gary Armida

Now, that’s more like it. Day two of the Winter Meetings actually produced a little action. The fear of the poor economy showed in all of the moves yesterday as the announced salaries of the signees were quite a bit lower than in past years. This depressed free agent market is providing teams with more bargains than ever which allows them to address more than one weakness at a time. Even with economic fear in the air, teams finally started to shape themselves for the 2009 season. The headliner would have to be the Mets landing closer extraordinaire Francisco Rodriguez. The Mets adroitly navigated through the saturated closer market and signed Rodriguez to a three year, $37 million dollar contract. The Indians made strides in their negotiations with Kerry Wood. The Dodgers made a pair of signings with Casey Blake returning for three years for $17 million dollars and veteran utility man Mark Loretta to a one year $1.25 million dollar deal. And, finally the Orioles and Reds got into the action with a trade. The Reds sent utility man Ryan Freel along with two minor leaguers (Brandon Waring and Justin Turner) to the Orioles for catcher Ramon Hernandez. With rumors running rampant about CC Sabathia, the Yankees pursuit of a pitching staff, and the Angels strategy, day two proved to be an exciting day.  Let’s take a look at the impact of day two.

Mets Land K-Rod

The most significant move of the day came from the Mets as they addressed one of their most pressing needs. The acquisition of Rodriguez is significant on a number of levels. For one, the Mets land the best, safest closer on the market. Rodriguez is just 26 years old, battled tested, and a world champion. He, unlike his fellow closers on the market like Brian Fuentes, Kerry Wood, and Trevor Hoffman, does not come with many issues. Fuentes is an average closer at best who had lost his job in 2007 when the Rockies went to the World Series. Wood is quite injury prone and has just one year of experience as a closer. Hoffman is 41 years old and in decline.  It is not often said, but credit must be given to Omar Minaya and the Mets front office as they handled the closer market rather well. Instead of jumping into the market with an offer when free agency began, the Mets hung back and allowed the market to establish itself. At the beginning of the free agent period, Rodriguez was said to be looking for a 5 year, $75 million dollar contract. In past years, he would have received that contract. But, since Major League Baseball is seemingly scared of the current economy, Rodriguez gets a similar contract to fellow closer Francisco Cordero.

With that in mind and given Rodriguez’s dependability, the Mets get somewhat of a bargain which will allow them to further address their weaknesses. The Mets still need a starting pitcher, another arm in the bullpen, and a left fielder. The bullpen arm is significant as they have good specialists in Pedro Feliciano, Scott Schoeneweiss, and Joe Smith, but lack a right handed reliever who can get both left handed and right handed batters out. A free agent like Juan Cruz would fit the bill as would a trade for someone like Huston Street.

That fact that the Mets land Rodriguez is significant for their fan base as well. In the last two off seasons, the Mets have grabbed the best starter on the market in Johan Santana and now the best closer on the market in Rodriguez. After two consecutive collapses, the Mets have appropriately addressed their glaring needs.  Now, they must go to work to fill the hole out in left field, the setup man, and the fifth starter slot. With Rodriguez closing games, it is a guarantee that the Mets will not blow 29 saves in 2009 as they did in 2008.

The price, the years, and the age will make this the best signing of the winter. No other superstar player will likely sign below market value. The Mets, reading the market correctly, reap the benefits of getting the best player at the position for a second consecutive year. How they surround Rodriguez in the bullpen will determine the ultimate impact of the acquisition. Overall, a Mets fan could not ask for more at the moment.

Orioles and Reds Trade

The Baltimore Orioles sent catcher Ramon Hernandez to the Reds in exchange for utility man Ryan Freel and minor leaguers 3B Brandon Waring and 2B Justin Turner. The Reds add a right handed bat behind the plate who will be plenty motivated in the walk year of his contract. Hernandez provides a significant upgrade for the Reds behind the plate as Paul Bako hit just .217/.299/.328 in 2008 compared to Hernandez’s .259/.308/.406. Hernandez is capable of 20 homeruns and solid defense while providing balance to a lineup that leaned towards left handed hitting power. The Reds gave up very little in terms of talent, but did take on approximately $5 million in salary. With the catching position filled, the Reds can now turn their attention to acquiring an outfielder and filling out their rotation.

The Orioles save that $5 million in salary while acquiring a useful player in Freel. Ryan Freel will likely be the primary utility man for the Orioles. Health is always an issue with Freel as he played in just 42 games in 2008. When healthy, Freel is a solid major league hitter as he has a lifetime batting line of .272/.357/.376 with 142 career stolen bases. Freel can be a backup at any infield position as well as in the outfield. Because he has success against lefthanders (although his numbers are similar against right handers), Freel makes an ideal platoon partner for the Orioles in left field and solid pinch hitter/pinch runner.  

The Orioles, did not however, receive prospects with high ceilings. Brandon Waring is a 22 year old third baseman with a good power. He has hit 20 homeruns in each of his two minor league seasons (rookie ball and class A). Waring is not regarded as an elite prospect, but he could develop into a solid power hitter. Defense at third base may be a problem so the Orioles may have to find a permanent home for him. Justin Turner is a second baseman who has decent defensive skills, but a questionable bat. Many scouts project him to be a bench player at best. The 24 year old has yet to play above double-A and doesn’t project to be more than a utility man at this point.

Overall, both teams accomplish something in the trade. The Orioles get out of Hernandez’s $8 million dollar deal (with an $8 million dollar option for 2010) while providing their minor league system with some depth. The O’s will need a catcher at some point, but the money saved could be put towards a significant power hitting free agent. The Reds solidify their catching position which is something they haven’t done in a few years. Hernandez is 33 years old and on the decline (his OBP has declined for three consecutive seasons). But, he will be more than adequate for 2009.

Dodgers Ink Blake… Loretta soon

The Dodgers brought back Casey Blake by signing him to a 3 year $17.5 million dollar contract. Many observers will cringe when reading the dollar total considering Blake is 35 years old and has a career line of .264/.334/.447. He’s a solid albeit unspectacular third baseman who can also play first base and a corner outfield position. Given his last three seasons, one can expect Blake to hit between 15-20 homeruns, drive in 70-80 runs and hit .260/.330/.450 in 2009. It will be interesting to see how he produces at 38 years old, but the Dodgers have committed under $6 million per season so the risk is somewhat minimal. The contract is a year longer than it should be, but the average dollars per season is just fine.

The Dodgers haven’t confirmed the signing of 37 year old utility man Mark Loretta to a one year, $1.25 million dollar contract, but it’s expected that it will become official shortly. This is an excellent, low risk signing for the Dodgers as they get a player with a career line of .297/.361/.399 who can play any position on the field (with the exception of catcher). Furthermore, Loretta is a career .307/.393/.413 hitter against left handed pitching which makes him even more valuable to the Dodgers who feature a plethora of left handed hitters in their order like James Loney, Andre Ethier, Blake DeWitt, and Juan Pierre. Loretta, even with his advanced baseball age, is a significant upgrade for the Dodgers bench as their 2008 team did not have a credible bat or utility man capable of playing and providing an approximation of a starter’s production.

The two signings will not return the Dodgers to the post season, but given their relative low cost, the Dodgers are in good position to go after a big free agent. Manny Ramirez seems like their first priority, but the Dodgers may be better suited pursuing a CC Sabathia or more “signable” pitcher to solidify their suddenly thin rotation.

 Access Hollywood

When scouring the newswires yesterday, one would swear that the Winter Meetings were being covered like a Hollywood drama. There were so many rumors being reported as fact with absolutely no support to them. Then, of course, the rumors would be retracted. Now, reading about possible trade rumors are always fun, but this year seems to be a bit out of control. Reading a piece described as news that Brian Cashman left the hotel or that Prince Fielder is getting traded to Seattle only to be retracted a few minutes later is irresponsible. Whatever happened to analysis of moves or trying to follow a team’s thought process? The intelligent baseball fan wants facts, not baseless rumors.

Looking to Day 3

If day two was any indication, the Winter Meetings are about to get interesting. Here are a couple of developments to watch out for on day 3.

• Kerry Wood and the Indians are said to be negotiating. Look for that deal to possibly be finalized today.
• JJ Putz trade rumors are floating everywhere, but Detroit is seemingly the favorite. One has to wonder about the validity of trading for a closer when some are available on the free agent market at a similar cost.
• The Yankees are still pushing for CC Sabathia, but they seem to be getting more aggressive on the AJ Burnett, Derek Lowe, and Ben Sheets fronts.
• Jake Peavy to the Cubs talk will dominate the day. If that does ever go down, look at the Cubs rotation of Peavy, Zambrano, Dempster, Harden, and Lilly. That rotation would be unmatched if it could stay healthy.
• Finally, the Raul Ibanez market seems to be heating up. Ibanez is an attractive free agent because he is a consistent performer who will likely come at a better value than Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell. Look for the Mets and Phillies to become very aggressive with the veteran left hander.

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