Minaya Does it Again: A Breakdown of the 3 Team Trade

By Gary Armida

Evidently the Mets wanted to make sure that their bullpen doesn’t blow another 29 games in 2009. As a result of the stunning 12 player, 3 team trade, the Mets received closer turned new setup man JJ Putz, reliever Sean Green, and outfielder Jeremy Reed. The Indians received reliever Joe Smith and minor league second baseman Luis Valbuena while the Mariners received the biggest haul of players in the deal. New general manager Jack Zduriencik acquired outfielder Franklin Gutierrez, reliever Aaron Heilman, outfielder Endy Chavez,  left handed pitcher Jason Vargas, and minor leaguers 1B Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Cabrera, and pitcher Maikel Cleto. At quick glance, this trade is mildly fascinating as well as head spinning. Although many names are exchanged, each team seems to have received some value in return. The Mets and Indians shore up their bullpen while the Mariners restock their paltry system with a mixture of low ceiling minor leaguers, some major league role players, and an outfielder in Gutierrez filled with potential. For once, this is an old fashion baseball trade where money was not a factor. This time it was about baseball.

Mets’ Perspective

If the Mets had one goal this offseason it was to remodel the bullpen. As stated in the Francisco Rodriguez breakdown (read here), signing Rodriguez was just the first step. This trade, potentially, is the final piece to that puzzle. The Mets get two relievers, one who is a former all-star closer and one similar to the departed Joe Smith. Starting with the former closer, JJ Putz was one of the best relievers in the game during the 2006 and 2007 seasons. For those two seasons, Putz combined for a 10/2 record with 76 saves. He threw 150 innings, gave up just 96 hits, 31 earned runs, 26 walks, and struck out 186 batters. It doesn’t get more dominating than those two seasons. One of the early reasons for the Mariners’ disastrous 2008 season was the injury to Putz. Putz was placed on the disabled list early in the season and was never the same after he returned. For 2008, Putz was 6/5 with 15 saves. In 46.1 innings, he gave up 46 hits, 20 earned runs, 28 walks, and struck out 56 hitters. His ERA of 3.88 and WHIP of 1.597 were the highest since his rookie season. The Mets are banking on Putz being fully recovered from his elbow and ribcage injuries and return to his dominant form.

One aspect of Putz that often gets overlooked is that he is entering his age 32 season. Putz is often thought of as a young reliever, but he made the major leagues at age 26 after toiling for five years as a minor league starter before being moved to the bullpen. If Putz is healthy (all indications say that he is), he could form the most dominant late inning one-two punch in baseball. The addition of Putz has many positive ramifications for the Mets. First, it shortens games to seven inning affairs. Knowing that two of the top five closers in baseball (over the past 3 seasons) are finishing off the game will be comforting to manager Jerry Manuel and force opposing managers to be more aggressive early in games. Manuel can now use the rest of the bullpen to its strengths by limiting lefties Scott Schoeneweis and Pedro Feliciano to just specialized appearances rather than pushing their limits to face right handed batters as he was forced to in 2008. Thirdly, and perhaps more importantly, Putz’s presence will allow for Francisco Rodriguez to be used wisely. The Mets will not have to pitch Rodriguez for three or four consecutive days as Putz can close the game to allow Rodriguez to rest. With growing concern over Rodriguez’s arm strength, this is a tremendous benefit. In fact, a look at the statistics from 2006 and 2007 will show that Putz was actually the more effective closer. Putz as the setup guy does make more sense because he will often be placed in the more high leverage situations as opposed to the one inning closer. All things being equal, Putz, when healthy, is much more adroit in high leverage situations than Rodriguez. The addition of Putz launches the Mets bullpen from one of the worst in the division to perhaps the most complete.

The Mets also get two role players in the deal. Right handed reliever Sean Green (30 years old) is a reliever lacking spectacular statistics. But, if used properly, he can be effective. Green holds right handed batters to .681 OPS as opposed to the .820 OPS left handed hitters touch him up for. Green must be used as Joe Smith was optimally employed. If he is teamed with a Pedro Feliciano for 6^th or 7^th inning specialty work, he can be efficient. Is he spectacular? The answer is no. But, he can be a positive for the bullpen if used wisely.

Jeremy Reed was once a touted prospect for the Mariners. He was given an opportunity to play at age 24, but has failed as an everyday major league hitter. With little power, little plate discipline, and little speed, Reed is a defense only player. He can play all three outfield positions and isn’t a lock to even make the team. If anything, he is the 25^th man who could, at best, flourish in the Endy Chavez role.

In all, the Mets get JJ Putz to become their setup man and K-Rod insurance. They do part with seven of the 12 players in the trade, but with the exception of Smith and Heilman all are long shots to be of great help. Only 19 year old Maikel Cleto who throws in the upper 90′s and is still working on a second pitch could make an impact down the line. So, the Mets get an elite setup man (if healthy) for a package of average players. If one looks at the deal from a farm system depth position, one could question the value of clearing out even more of the minor league system. But, given the Mets’ terrible bullpen situation, this was a trade they had to make. It’s a bit risky as Putz is coming off of an injury and Green and Reed seem like little more than role players. But, if Putz returns to his 2006-2007 form, the Mets will be happy with the trade.

Once again, Omar Minaya must be celebrated for his adept work during the Winter Meetings. Think of it this way-everyone knew that he was desperate for a new bullpen, specifically a closer. He waited on Rodriguez and signed him for about $40 million and two years less than what Rodriguez was seeking. He then traded his group of struggling/middling/low ceiling players and received a pitcher who was regarded as a top 5 closer heading into the 2008 season. Minaya leaves Las Vegas with two top closers for a relatively cheap price.

Indians’ Perspective

The Indians continue to revamp their bullpen with the acquisition of Joe Smith. Smith appeared in 82 games for the Mets and posted a 3.55 ERA and a 1.295 WHIP in 2008. Smith is not the typical setup man as he is more of a right handed specialist. For his career, Smith has held right handed batters to a .223/.317/.326 line while left handers hit him to the tune of .309/.427/.454. The Indians bullpen was uneven last season, but given the youth of Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis, and now Smith, they are a talented bunch. Once they officially ink their closer (Kerry Wood), the bullpen should be a strength, especially if Rafael Betancourt can bounce back from his poor 2008.

23 year old Luis Valbuena is a left handed second baseman who could be a solid regular in the major leagues. Drafted at 19 years old, it took Valbuena just four seasons to reach the majors. For his minor league career, he has a batting line of .270/.346/.405 with 64 steals in 94 attempts. He projects to be a decent second baseman, but some scouts have questioned his conditioning to play second base in the major leagues. If he does not play second base, he will not have value in the Major Leagues. Look for Valbuena to begin the year at Triple-A to establish himself in the Indians’ organization.

The Indians give up 26 year old Franklin Gutierrez in the deal. The return of Smith and Valbuena could be fair if Gutierrez fails to live up to expectations. If Gutierrez hits as the Indians had hoped, the return looks a little worse. The Indians do, however, have a bunch of outfielders ready to step in so they were dealing from a position of strength. Obviously, Matt LaPorta, their return from the CC Sabathia trade, is the player that allowed Gutierrez to be dealt. In all, the Indians do well here as they strengthen the bullpen and get a potentially serviceable second baseman.

Mariners’ Perspective

 New General Manager Jack Zduriencik certainly made a splash in his first trade. He gives up his top closer, an adequate reliever, and a fourth outfielder for a gaggle of players. The familiar names are Aaron Heilman, Endy Chavez, and to a lesser degree, Franklin Gutierrez. He also acquired LHP Jason Vargas and minor leaguers 1B Mike Carp, OF Ezequiel Carerra, and 19 year old RHP Maikel Cleto.  It is important to first note that the Mariners really don’t acquire anyone with a high ceiling. He does get, however, a group of players who are serviceable right away along with a trio of minor leaguers who could help in both the immediate and near future. With the Mariners in need of an extreme culture change, this is a decent first step.

On the major league ready side, Franklin Gutierrez is the one player with the most potential. An excellent defensive centerfielder, Gutierrez should be placed in the Mariners’ starting lineup to begin the 2009 season. Although he is 26 years old, he has never had an extended time in the major leagues to play every day. In his 807 career at bats, Gutierrez has hit .258/.308/.409. But, his career minor league batting line is .282/.347/.462. If he can somehow hit .260/.330/.425, the Mariners will be more than satisfied with the above average defender. Gutierrez is the key to the immediate value of this trade as he must fulfill expectations as an everyday major league outfielder.

Aaron Heilman is a talented pitcher who had a poor final season in the New York as he battled injuries. Heilman was one of the best relievers in the game from 2005 through 2007, but he faltered badly in 2008, posting a 5.21 ERA and a 1.592 WHIP, his worst totals since becoming a reliever. Heilman’s time in New York was finished and he was in need of a change of scenery. The Mariners have plenty of options with Heilman as he could be given a chance at the closer role, a setup role, or starting pitcher. For years Heilman has stated his desire to return to the rotation, but his new role in Seattle will be decided during the spring. Look for Heilman to rebound in Seattle in 2009.

Endy Chavez is a 31 year old 4^th outfielder who should bring some energy to the moribund Seattle clubhouse. Chavez has just a .311 OBP for his career, but he brings speed, great defense, and his never-ending energy. The left handed hitter actually performs well in spot duty and will provide the Mariners with a solid option off the bench. If he gets more than 250 at bats this season, the Mariners are in for another long season. Jason Vargas is a 25 year old left hander who was once a prospect for the Florida Marlins. Now, after hip surgery, he looks to be a middle relief candidate. Seattle is a good park to resurrect a career, but the odds of Vargas having an impact are slim. However, Zduriencik does do well to take a chance on a young left handed pitcher. Perhaps Vargas can reclaim his status and be a valuable end of the rotation starter.

Mike Carp is a 22 year old left handed first baseman. He has moderate power and trouble with left handed pitching. Carp hit .299/.403/.471 in double-A in 2008 with 17 homeruns, 72 RBI, and 79 walks. He looks to have a future in a platoon role as he hits right handers well and does display some power. Again, the ceiling is low, but he could be an adequate major leaguer in the right platoon. Ezequiel Carrera is just 21 years old and in single-A ball. The lefty speedster could carve out his career as a fourth outfielder and pinch runner. In truth, he is too young to project, but most scouts believe he can have a career as a reserve.

Maikel Cleto is the one prospect who may have a high ceiling in terms of a career. The right handed pitcher is just 19 years old and has two years of minor baseball under his belt. His numbers are ugly. In 174.2 innings, he has given up 179 hits, 61 walks, and 110 strikeouts with a 4.53 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP. Why does he have the highest ceiling? Well, he consistently throws 97 miles per hour and is currently developing a second pitch. If Cleto can develop that second pitch, he will have a career a reliever.

Overall, Seattle stocks its system with solid albeit limited players. Gutierrez may develop and Heilman may be rejuvenated in Seattle. Carp must have at least one full season in triple-A before making his major league debut. At the very least, Zduriencik gets tradable pieces that can be traded at the all-star break or next off season. If Heilman does bounce back, he will have plenty of suitors.

Closing Thoughts

When so many trades are made because of salary, it is refreshing to see a trade made solely on baseball. The Mets and Indians are immediate winners as they improve their most glaring deficiencies. The Mariners are a bit tougher to judge. The fact is that the club needed a change and this deal infused new blood into the franchise. The true worth of the trade for Seattle cannot be accurately measured for at least four years as the young prospects progress. For what each team needed, this trade seems to work well for all involved. It doesn’t always work this way, but for once it did.

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