A Long Road for the Pirates
By Gary Armida
While Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez, the New York Yankees, and the New York Mets have stolen the winter headlines, there are actually other teams preparing for the 2009 season. Some quiet teams have playoff aspirations while others are just hoping for tangible progress for the year. The Pittsburgh Pirates are an organization with hopes for progress in 2009. Second year general manager Neil Huntington seems committed to his plan of extensive scouting and minor league development rather than sign veteran free agents who will most likely leave before the season’s end. Just how bad have the Pirates been? Well, they haven’t had a winning season since 1992. Moreover, they have won over 75 games just four times in that span. They are the only team in the Major Leagues without a winning season in the last 16 years. Quite simply, the Pirates have been the worst team in all of baseball for almost two decades. For some reason, they seem to fly under the national radar despite their history of mismanagement, lack of competitiveness, and their lengthy run of ineptitude. But, with sagging attendance (just 1.6 million in 2008, their third straight year of declining attendance) and an equally sagging economy, the Pirates are running the risk of committing the worst sin in professional sports-becoming irrelevant. Huntington has a long-term vision which is something the Pirates have lacked over the years. Unfortunately, the Pirates have a long road ahead of them.
Looking Like Tampa?
It’s not going to happen; The Pirates won’t score their first winning season with a trip to the playoffs. The Pirates of 2009 won’t even sniff 78 wins let alone win over 90. But, the Pirates’ farm system is beginning to resemble the Rays’ system of four years ago. The Pirates like the Rays of 2004 have an abundance of offensive prospects. Unfortunately, the Pirates do not have a single pitching prospect ready to assume a major league role. But, their farm system is deeper than it was just a season ago. Credit for this must go to Huntington as the Pirates, despite having a high draft pick over the last 15 years, have not built the juggernaut farm system like Tampa Bay. It was Huntington’s trades of Jason Bay, Xavier Nady, and Damaso Marte and good first draft that have built up the farm system in a short amount of time.
The crown jewel of the farm system is third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez was drafted with the second pick of the 2008 draft, but didn’t sign right away which didn’t endear him to Pittsburgh fans. In fact, Alvarez was unable to play in any type of league because of his contract dispute which wasn’t settled until this past September. Only a stint in the Florida Instructional League gave the Pirates a taste of their highly touted prospect. Unbelievably, stats are not kept in the instructional league, but the Pirates were so impressed that they plan to start the 21 year old at high A-Ball much like the Orioles did with their prize prospect Matt Wieters. If Alvarez develops as the Pirates brass believes, he could see some major league time during the second half of 2009.
The Pirates do have an abundance of outfield prospects, with two almost ready to contribute at the major league level. Centerfielder Andrew McCutchen is ready for the major leagues after posting a .283/.372/.398 season as a 21 year old at triple-A. McCutchen stole 34 bases while hitting 8 homeruns and driving in 50 runs. McCutchen could develop into a power hitting centerfielder or be a top of the order speed type of hitter. In each of his four minor league seasons, McCutchen’s walk total has gotten progressively higher. With developing patience at the plate, above average defensive ability and with good speed, McCutchen could crack the major league lineup with a good spring training.
Jose Tabata was the main ingredient in the Xavier Nady/Damaso Marte trade. Tabata is entering his fifth professional season at just 21 years old. He will probably advance to triple-A and has a chance to make his major league debut late in 2009. He regained his prospect status after arriving in the Pittsburgh organization when he hit .348/.402/.562 in 22 games in double-A. Tabata is developing, but must continue to grow in his plate discipline and into his power potential. The future outfield of Tabata, Nate McClouth, and McCutchen should make Pirates’ fans smile for a change.
The two highest rated pitching prospects for the Pirates, Brad Lincoln and Bryan Morris, are both recovering from Tommy John Surgery. Lincoln has underwhelming minor league numbers as his main goal was just to make it through the 2008 season healthy after missing all of the 2007 season. He posted a 4.68 ERA, but that came with a solid 1.26 WHIP. 2009 is a key year for Lincoln as he must demonstrate that he is still a prospect. Morris had a better 2008 as his stuff seemed to return a bit quicker. The 21 year old right hander threw to a 3.20 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP while striking out 72 batters in 82.1 innings. That last stat is significant as the Pirates, for some strange reason, do not have many pitchers who can strike batters out. Both pitchers will start 2009 with some hope, but look for Morris to ascend to the top of the Pirates system rather quickly.
Neil Walker rated as the next highest prospect for the Pirates. Walker is a former catcher who has struggled with his position change to third base. But, Walker does have power potential as he hit 16 homeruns despite struggling much of last year in triple-A. Walker will likely start the year at triple-A, but he could appear at the major league level with a good start to the season. The jury is still out on Walker as his statistics (.273/.320/.426 lifetime) have not caught up to his hype.
Pitchers Anthony Watson (23 years old) and Daniel Moskos (22 years old) are both average, at best, prospects. Watson, the minor league pitcher of the year for the Pirates, is a left handed pitcher who projects to be a back end of the rotation starter. He is not overpowering (none of the Pirates are), but he does have good command of the strike zone. Moskos struggled in 2008 after having his role switched a couple of times. 2009 will be a key season as the Pirates have stated that they will move forward with Moskos as a starter, for better or worse.
Overall, the Pirates are beginning to stockpile talent. Their system is not at the level of a Rays, but it is moving in that direction. The Pirates must start developing power pitchers as most of their prospects, just like their young major league talent, lack the ability to strikeout hitters.
Committing to “Youth”
Neil Huntington came from the Cleveland Indians organization where he worked under the greatly underrated general manager Mark Shapiro. Shapiro began to reshape the Indians by signing young players like Grady Sizemore to long-term contracts, thus saving money by buying out the first couple of years of free agency. The problem with the Pirates is that their young major league players are not really all that young. Investing long-term in players who are already approaching 30 years old does not seem wise. However, Neil Huntington seems to believe that a few of those players are worthy of such a contract.
Huntington seems to be following the same Indians plan as the Pirates signed catcher Ryan Doumit to a three year, $11.5 million dollar deal with a two year team option. Doumit had a breakout 2008 season by hitting .318/.357/.501 with 15 homeruns and 69 RBI. The 27 year old finally hit to expectations, but he does come at a risk. His injury history is significant as he has never played a full season on any level. Given the fact that he is not a defensive star, a three year commitment seems a bit much. The Pirates are gambling that Doumit can continue to develop even though he will be at least 30 years old at the end of the contract (assuming the two option years are not exercised). Doumit could be a solid major league player, but he must demonstrate that he can stay on the field.
Huntington is said to be negotiating a similar contract for centerfielder Nate McLouth who also had a breakout 2008 season by hitting .276/.356/.497 with 26 homeruns and 94 RBI. McLouth is an above average defensive centerfielder who finally showed his potential at age 26. But, this came after three lackluster attempts on the major league level. McLouth must prove that 2008 was not a fluke before he gets his contract. That could be the case, but Huntington is still engaged in talks. Perhaps waiting for at least a second good season would be wise.
Soft Tossers
The youngest part of the Pirates major league team is its rotation as all of its rotation members will be 27 years old or younger. The problem with the Pirates’ staff as hinted earlier is their lack of strikeout ability. Only right hander Ian Snell, who struggled in 2008, has an average strikeout rate (135 strikeouts in 164.1 innings). Left handers Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, Tom Gorzelanny, and Phil Dumatrait, are not strikeout pitchers. That puts a lot of pressure on the Pirates’ defense and is partly the reason for their National League worst 5.10 team ERA.
The Pirates’ inadequacy is seen in their starting pitching staff. None, outside of Snell (who had a 5.42 ERA), have the potential to be a top of the rotation starter. Most project to be a number four or five starter. So, while it is nice to have a relatively young staff, it is a staff made up of back of the rotation type pitchers. For the long-term, the Pirates do not have the elite pitching prospects like the Tampa Bay Rays have (and they have many at this point).
Even though the pitching staff is the youngest part of the Pirates’ team, they are the group that will continue to hold back the Pirates’ growth. Neil Huntington’s challenge is to build the organization pitching with more power pitchers, more elite level pitching prospects. The Pirates do not seem to value power pitching which will ultimately doom the franchise for another 15 years of ineptitude. Huntington’s legacy and worth as a general manager will come down to his ability to address this issue.
Looking at 2009
The lone free agent signing has been utility man Ramon Vazquez. The Pirates gave Vazquez a two year contract in a depressed free agent market. It is just another sign of the poor organizational decision making. The Pirates do not need another 30 year old, average to below average player, with little trade value. It shows that the organization has not learned from their Jeromy Burnitz, Raul Mondesi days. With expressed interest in Ty Wigginton, the Pirates seem to be following the continued plan of making moves just for the sake of making moves.
But, not all is bad as the Pirates do fashion an underrated back of the bullpen and some good offensive talent. The bullpen is backed by closer Matt Capps. Capps has tremendous control (just five walks in 53.2 innings), but he must regain the strikeout ability he demonstrated in 2007. However, with his excellent control and his ability to limit baserunners, Capps will be an adequate closer. He’s more suited to a setup role, but he is their best option to close at the moment. Left hander John Grabow is their best strikeout pitcher as he notched 62 punch outs in 76 effective innings. Look for Grabow’s name to be mentioned in trade talks all season. The Pirates should get a decent return for the southpaw. Sean Burnett is another left hander who is deadly against lefty hitters. Lefties hit just .171 against him, which was fourth best among left handed pitchers. If used properly, Burnett could be a useful reliever. The rest of the bullpen will need some work, but the late innings portion is more than adequate.
The Pirates offense should improve in 2009, but that largely depends on the growth of the LaRoche boys as first baseman Adam LaRoche must get off to a better start this year. LaRoche is a terrible first half hitter, but he becomes quite good during the second half. His overall numbers of .270/.341/.500 are good, but if he ever put together a full season, he would be outstanding. Andy LaRoche should get his first opportunity at an everyday starting position. The pressure will be on as the Pirates have many options at third base within their organization.
Veterans Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez form a solid defensive keystone combination, but their offense ranks as one of the least productive middle infield tandems in baseball. Both must increase their .312 and .298 OBP’s in 2009. Wilson is always rumored in trade talks, but with that type of production, the Pirates will be stuck with his contract. Sanchez, a former batting title winner, must bounce back in 2009 to have any hope to stay in the organization. Look for Ramon Vazquez to steal at bats from Wilson, Sanchez, and Andy LaRoche.
The outfield will likely start with McLouth, Brandon Moss, and Stephen Pearce. Moss and Pearce have offensive potential, but neither is a long-term solution even if they are just 25 years old. They are merely place holders until Tabata and McCutchen are ready for major league action. If McCutchen wins a job out of spring training, Moss and Pearce could form a productive platoon.
Closing Thoughts
Overall, the Pirates have a below average offense which will once again struggle. Their lack of an offensive identity will cement their status as the worst team in the National League Central Division. With little fire power, the Pirates will not be able to overcome their soft-tossing, no-strikeout staff.
With little expected in 2009, a Pirates fan must hang his hat on the fact that the minor league talent is slowly developing, at least on the offensive side. But, the Pirates need to show a commitment to pitching in order for the organization to take a Rays-like step in the next couple of seasons. At this point, they do not have the pitching talent to do so. The 2009 draft and their in-season trades are key to the Huntington regime. He must show he can develop that pitching talent. If not, the Pirates cannot compete.
