Burrell and Bradley Sign: A Study in Contrast

By Gary Armida

The Baseball Hot Stove might actually be starting to heat up with yesterday’s signings of outfielders Pat Burrell and Milton Bradley. The American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays signed the 32 year old Burrell to a two year $16 million dollar contract to be their full-time designated hitter. The Cubs, meanwhile, used their saved payroll from the Mark DeRosa and Jason Marquis trades to ink Milton Bradley to a three year, $30 million dollar contract. The two deals are a study in contrast for the two clubs who each won 97 games during the 2008 season. The Rays sign a low cost contract for the durable Burrell while the Cubs invest more money and an additional year for the oft-injured, yet talented Bradley. Burrell marks yet another adroit move for the Rays’ brain trust while Bradley is an additional example of yet another confounding Cubs’ off-season transaction. Milton Bradley may be the bigger name signed by the large market club, but Pat Burrell is the smarter move by the increasingly smarter organization.

Burrell a Great Fit for the Tampa Rays

Pat Burrell supposedly turned down a two year, $22 million dollar contract from the Phillies during the 2008 season. He signs for six million dollars less, but he ends up in a better situation to continue his career. The Rays, meanwhile, benefit from the depressed market by signing Burrell for just eight million dollars per season. Even more important is the fact that it is just a two year commitment. Burrell will be just 34 at the end of the contract; therefore he seems to be a good bet to continue his current level of production over the duration of the contract. The durable Burrell in a less physically taxing position will be one of the best bargain signings of the off season.

The Tampa Rays were in need of a right handed power hitter to hit behind Evan Longoria and Carlos Pena. Although the Rays won 97 games and made their way to the World Series, they were a poor offensive club. For the season, they finished ninth (in the American League) in runs scored (774), 13^th in batting average (.260), and 8^th in slugging percentage (.422). The defending American League Champions were dependent on their pitching staff which performed well, finishing in the top five in every single major pitching category.

For 2009, the Rays will need to be very careful with their young pitchers as all of them are coming off of a 2008 season in which they pitched a career high innings total. For this reason, the Rays will need more production from the offense. A healthy Carl Crawford and BJ Upton, a full season from Evan Longoria, and the addition of left handed power hitter Matt Joyce from Detroit will be an excellent start. Adding Pat Burrell as a full-time designated hitter finalizes and galvanizes their 2009 lineup. The Rays had poor 2008 production from their designated hitters which included Cliff Floyd, Rocco Baldelli, and Johnny Gomes.

Burrell is a lifetime .257/.367/.485 hitter with 251 homeruns during his nine year career. In the past four seasons, Burrell has posted OPS’s of .893, .890, .902, and .874. He has walked 98 or more times in each of the last four seasons while hitting 32, 29, 30, and 33 homeruns during those years. His 2008 on base percentage (.367) and slugging percentage (.507) would have each ranked second for Rays while his 33 homeruns would have led the squad.

The presence of Burrell has many positive impacts for the Rays. For one, it balances out a lineup that tended to lean to the left side in ’08. Now, the Rays will have four left handed hitters, four right handed hitters, and one switch hitter in their everyday lineup. Secondly, he adds yet another patient bat to a lineup that finished fourth in on base percentage and second in walks. Thirdly, he lengthens the Rays lineup which, as stated previously, is vitally important to their 2009 success. A lineup of Iwamura, Upton, Longoria, Pena, Burrell, Crawford, Navarro, Joyce, and Bartlett is a lineup that will see a lot of pitches, generate many baserunners via the walk, hit for power, and strikeout frequently. They potentially have the best lineup in baseball if all players return to health and perform to expectations.

For Burrell, moving to the American League is the best thing for him at this point in his career. Considered to be a poor defensive outfielder (despite of an above average throwing arm) and an increasingly poor runner, the permanent move to designated hitter should keep Burrell from wearing down as he seemed to in 2008 when he hit .191/.295/.365 during the last two months of the season. The one concern that is being overlooked is his adjustment to the designated hitter role. Some players adjust quickly while some never get comfortable with the role. Burrell will need an adjustment period, but he represents a significant upgrade over the group who manned the position last season.   

Cubs Take Risk with “The Game”

Milton Bradley is coming off a vastly underrated 2008 season. In 126 games, Bradley hit .321/.436/.563 with 22 homeruns and 77 RBI while filling the designated hitter role for all but 19 games. The soon to be 31 year old is a lifetime .280/.370/.457 hitter, but has posted OPS’s of .947 and .999 during the previous two seasons. When healthy, Bradley is a patient hitter who hits for average and power. The switch hitter is a valuable member of any lineup.

The risks for this signing are plentiful. First, the Cubs have committed three years at $10 million per season. Bradley has played over 140 games just once during his nine year career, while only playing over 100 games three times. History shows that the talented hitter is not good bet to stay in the lineup for 100 games let alone for 140 games, not the best return for $10 million dollars. The move back to the National League is also quite risky for Bradley. His tremendous 2008 season is a direct result from being a largely full-time designated hitter that played half of his games in a hitter’s paradise. Now, the once above average outfielder will have to play left field on a full-time basis in order to be in the lineup. This will most likely have an impact on Bradley’s performance either through injury or more “wear and tear” as a result of playing in the field.

For the Cubs, their off season moves seem a bit odd on the surface. In 2008, the Cubs finished first in runs scored, on base percentage, and slugging percentage while finishing second in batting average. But, with those great statistics, the Cubs lacked a left handed power hitting threat in their lineup which seemed to manifest itself in the playoffs against the Los Angeles Dodgers and their right handed relief corps. Adding Bradley helps balance the right handed dominate lineup just slightly. He adds yet another patient, powerful hitter to a club that led the league in walks and finished fifth in the league in homeruns.

The cost of acquiring Bradley goes beyond the $30 million dollars. In order to clear the necessary salary, the Cubs traded second baseman Mark DeRosa and cut ties with veteran Jim Edmonds (although he is not a ‘high’ cost). If one looks at DeRosa’s (.285/.376/.481 with 21 homeruns) and Edmonds’ (.256/.369/.568 with 19 homeruns with the Cubs) 2008 seasons and project the statistics of new second baseman Aaron Miles and Bradley, one will see a net loss in offensive production. While DeRosa and Edmonds are not expected to match last season’s production, the Bradley/Miles combination will still fall short or, at best, match the 2008 production the Cubs recieved. Factor in the likelihood of Bradley missing significant time in 2009 (and especially beyond) and the ‘09 Cubs look a bit worse than their 2008 team. So, for $30 million dollars, the Cubs actually take a little step backwards on offense. As a result, the Cubs will be more dependent on their pitching staff which has constant health concerns (Harden and Zambrano) and a revamped bullpen which now has questions as a result of the departed Kerry Wood and Bob Howry.

The addition of Bradley to the Cubs lineup is good as far as he represents a quality hitter who helps balance the right handed dominant lineup which will force opposing managers to utilize their bullpen. But, because of the many moves it took to acquire him and his extensive injury history, the signing of Milton Bradley is quite a risk for the Cubs. The fact that the Rays acquire Pat Burrell at two million dollars less per season and, more importantly, one less year, illustrates the Cubs’ overpayment Bradley. Considering that more durable, reliable players were available on the free agent market at a lesser or equal price, the acquisition of Bradley for three years is a poor bet and poor move for the Chicago Cubs. Bradley is a talented hitter, but he is better suited for an American League team in need of a designated hitter.

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