By Gary Armida

The New York Mets are coming off of a second consecutive disappointing season where they held a division lead in September only to lose it to the Philadelphia Phillies. While many can say the collapse of 2007 was a result of tense play, the 2008 loss was a simple result of poor bullpen performance which was exacerbated by the loss of closer Billy Wagner. The Mets had one goal heading into the off season-to upgrade the bullpen. Much maligned General Manager Omar Minaya made two significant moves, both of which showed his adeptness of timing. First, he signed closer Francisco Rodriguez to a three year, $37 million dollar contract, far below his expected $75 million dollar deal. Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, he attained JJ Putz, the former Mariners All-Star closer, in a three way trade for little in terms of impact talent. He has addressed the bullpen well, but many issues still face the Mets before Spring Training begins. There are still rotation spots to be filled and the question of whether or not Minaya will add another bat to the Mets lineup that performed better than their reputation would lead you to believe. Compounding those issues is the black cloud of the previous two Septembers. Can the Mets shake off the notion, real or perceived, that they are, as Phillies ace Cole Hamels stated, choke artists? The New York Daily News’ own Adam Rubin joins FCP in discussing all of these issues and more in our in-depth look at the New York Mets.

Facing the Obvious Issue

Unfortunately for the Mets, they will continue to face questions about their troubles in September. It is unfortunate because their 2008 troubles had nothing to do with choking. It had everything to do with their bullpen. Adam Rubin explains, “I really don’t think the second collapse was a direct result of the first. The primary factor was the bullpen’s underperformance, which caused them to squander a 3.5-game lead with 17 games left. I do think it may enter certain players’ heads late in this upcoming season if the Mets are in a comparable position in September, since it will obviously be a topic that will be thrown in their face a lot.” Because of the intense media market, the questions of September will be bandied about the entire season. In order for the Mets to overcome them, an attitude shift is needed. Rather than avoid the topic, they need to acknowledge it, embrace it as a challenge, and take the public stance of “it won’t happen again.”

A result of the previous two Septembers has been the public outcry by fans and certain media outlets about breaking up the core of the Mets. The rationale (if it can be called that) is that the Mets “obviously” lack the character to close out a pennant race. This line of thinking is absolutely incorrect.

Rubin agrees, “I’m with you. I think those advocating a change in the “core” are just making a knee-jerk reaction to two straight collapses without thinking about it on a deeper level. First of all, what is the “core?” I would define it as David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Johan Santana at this point. It would have been easy to decline Carlos Delgado’s $12 million option this winter, but to what end? Delgado had a $4 million buyout, so in essence the Mets re-signed Delgado for a one-year contract at $8 million. Given his production after July 1, I think that was certainly warranted. The Mets had a payroll of $143 million last year, and should have an equivalent payroll this upcoming season. Did Wright have a few lapses late in the season where he pressed and chased balls out of the strike zone and had disappointing at-bats? Sure. But the solution is not to trade Wright or any other of those players; it’s to surround them with quality players so that the pressure on any given player is diffused. If the Mets had made a better choice with, say, the contract to a secondary player such as Luis Castillo (four years, $24 million), they could have signed Orlando Hudson this winter. The failing is not in the “core.” It was in the players around them, particularly this past season with the bullpen.”

While one could argue that it was a mistake to pick up the $12 million dollar option on Delgado, Mr. Rubin’s argument of it being an eight million dollar move when factoring in the buyout money does make sense. At eight million dollars, Delgado, even at 37 years old, is a bargain, one year stopgap as his presence will allow the Mets to evaluate Daniel Murphy and Nick Evans as possible replacements in 2010. As for the rest of the core, there is no need to trade any of them. If the Mets suffered from anything (besides the aforementioned bullpen issues), it was from a lack of role players to compliment their talented roster.

The Leadership

Omar Minaya has come under fire, sometimes justifiably and other times unfairly, for his free agent dealings and the direction/performance of the Mets. He is, after all, the person who signed some aging, 40+ year old veterans-Orlando Hernandez, Julio Franco, Moises Alou-to multi-year contracts. And, one cannot overlook his four year contract given to Luis Castillo just a year ago. He has, however, made some adroit moves-Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, and now Rodriguez and Putz while getting additional players thrown into a deal like John Maine and Oliver Perez who both weren’t the prime targets in the trades. With such a mixed ledger, is Omar Minaya a successful general manager? “Minaya inherited a payroll of $83 million, and it’s risen to $143 million under his watch. During that span the Mets have reached the postseason once, so by that measure alone Minaya’s tenure hasn’t been a success. But he has re-infused the organization with energy and made them relevant after arriving at the height of dysfunction following the Scott Kazmir trade, and with the Yankees-Red Sox rivalry consuming New York. I think the biggest knock on Minaya has been his tendency to overpay in terms of money or years for players. Remember giving Julio Franco a two-year contract at 47 years old? Or Orlando Hernandez a two-year, $12 million contract that yielded nothing in Season two. That’s what has been encouraging about this offseason. There has been a patience and the players acquired, Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz, have largely been on the Mets’ terms”, states Rubin.

Certainly many Mets fans have questioned Minaya’s performance last season when the entire world knew that the bullpen would be the Mets’ undoing. The problem for Minaya is that the entire world knew that the bullpen would be the Mets’ undoing. Rubin adds, “The Mets front-office staff will note that there wasn’t much movement of relievers around baseball. Brian Fuentes and Huston Street weren’t moved at the deadline, for instance. Certainly if you overpaid, you could have landed someone. But the Mets have tried to reestablish the farm system, and that would have compromised that. And there was optimism that Billy Wagner would return, which obviously proved incorrect. In retrospect, it is easy to second-guess and the Mets should have done something else.”

Looking at the whole picture, Omar Minaya has done an above average job in re-invigorating this franchise. It is easy to forget the condition that the Mets were in when he took over as general manager. Has he been perfect? No, he has not. What GM has been? Regardless, his performance thus far this off season has been outstanding when one considers he has addressed his glaring need while not overpaying to do so.

Minaya’s first off season decision was to bring back manager Jerry Manuel. Manuel took over for the fired Willie Randolph and led the Mets to a 55 and 38 record. He took over a team that was lifeless, floundering, and unwatchable with a 34 and 35 record. His leadership, his handling of the lineup, and his ability to seemingly focus Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado (who really took off once Randolph was released) led to him being named the permanent skipper despite losing the three game lead in September. Is Manuel the right fit for this club heading into 2009? “I hope so, because Manuel is an extremely honest and colorful person to cover. I think the players responded to him after the change, and he deserves more time to try to lead the Mets to a division title. It’s going to come down to the players, however”, answers Rubin.

Looking Towards 2009

Whether a team has good management or has a black cloud hanging over its head means nothing if the players perform. The bullpen has been addressed in a manner which may alleviate the need to play the match up game that the Mets had to play last year. “The Mets point to these stats: They scored the same number of runs as the Phillies last season–tied for second most in the National League. And while the Phillies were 79-0 when leading after eight innings, the Mets were 78-7 in those situations. You would have to assume that Brad Lidge won’t be perfect like last year, while the combination of J.J. Putz and Francisco Rodriguez should give the Mets a far better success rate late in games. Duaner Sanchez finally bouncing back would make it that much more lethal, but I’m not sure you can count on that. Darren O’Day, taken in the Rule 5 draft, has a similar profile to Smith, so perhaps he can fulfill that role with the drop-down look. But the Mets hope not to have to do that much matching up late in games if the eighth and ninth innings are locked down. That may allow them to carry just one lefthander, Pedro Feliciano, in the bullpen if that’s the route they go now that Scott Schoeneweis is gone.” With the bullpen appropriately addressed, the Mets must ameliorate a couple of their deficiencies in order to compete for a National League pennant.

With Johan Santana, John Maine, and Mike Pelfry fronting the rotation, the Mets have a solid top three in their rotation. As a matter of fact, their top three could be the best in the division, assuming the health of John Maine and the continued development of Mike Pelfry. As of this writing, the Mets still have an offer to free agent Derek Lowe and are rumored to be interested in Randy Wolf and re-signing Oliver Perez. 21 year old Jonathan Niese is also a candidate for the rotation. Obviously, the bullpen moves mean nothing if the Mets do not land at least one starter. Rubin summarizes the current state of the rotation as this, “Derek Lowe remains the priority, and he’s been offered a three-year deal worth roughly $36 million. If that doesn’t materialize, re-signing Oliver Perez is next on the list, followed by Randy Wolf. Jon Niese is the projected fifth starter right now. But I can foresee a scenario where, say, if the Mets spend less on a fourth starter like Wolf they can bring in someone else as well.”

Jonathan Niese is far too young to be a reliable 5^th starter. He’s talented, but he likely needs some more time at triple-A before being thrust into the middle of a pennant race. As a pitcher who has made just seven starts on the triple-A level (5-1, 3.40 ERA 1.21 WHIP 32K in 39.2 Inn), the long-term benefits from at least a half season in the minors would be valuable. With that in mind, the Mets would need to bring in two starters. Derek Lowe is the obvious choice as he is reliable, provides innings, has pitched in big games, and is the perfect complement to Johan Santana. While Lowe has said that the Mets initial offer of $36 million dollars over three years is underwhelming, he may not have better options. The Yankees are out of it as are the Cubs and the Dodgers. Once again, Omar Minaya is using the market to his advantage. “The Mets’ approach this winter overall has been solid for a change in negotiations. It’s take our price because there aren’t a ton of bidders, or we’ll go elsewhere. While it worked with K-Rod, it may not work with Lowe if there really are other aggressive suitors. But the fallback options give the Mets leverage.”

Ideally, the Mets bring in Lowe and Wolf, who should come at an affordable price tag considering the market. Reality is that Lowe and Niese likely fill out the rotation. If Lowe does find other suitors, the Mets will bring back Oliver Perez who has the best upside out of any pitcher on the market.

On the offensive end, the Mets have one, possibly two holes to fill. The “possible hole” is second base with Luis Castillo coming off of the worst major league season of his career. If Castillo comes to camp in shape (unless he is somehow traded beforehand), he can be a serviceable player, considering that he has publicly stated that he is motivated. If Castillo fails, the current options on the roster are Daniel Murphy who played some second base during the Arizona Fall League or Argenis Reyes. As Adam Rubin stated previously, the Luis Castillo contract precludes the Mets from signing Orlando Hudson to upgrade at second base.

The other hole is left field. For the moment, the Mets seem content to go with a platoon of Fernando Tatis and Daniel Murphy. The 33 year old Tatis was a tremendous story in 2008 with his batting line of .297/.369/.484 with 11 homeruns and 47 RBI in 273 at bats. Murphy, the 23 year old left handed hitter, was a surprise for the Mets in 2008 when he hit .313/.397/.473 in 131 at bats. He, like Jonathan Niese, did not spend too much time at triple-A. In fact, he had just four at bats at that level. The two could form a productive platoon, but that is assuming quite a bit. First, it assumes that Tatis can replicate his amazing 2008 season. Considering he had not played in the Major Leagues since 2006 (and before that 2003), it is not a given that he will produce. Murphy is young and still needs to develop. Playing part-time may not be the best thing for his career. Ideally, the Mets sign a free agent to man left field. Considering the free agent market is flooded with candidates (although two signed-Bradley and Burrell), they could get one at a low salary for a one or two year deal. “In an ideal world, the Mets would spend to bring in a left fielder, but the Mets want to hold the line on payroll and are favoring a platoon right now. We’ll see if Daniel Murphy can duplicate what he did in 131 at-bats last year over a full season, and whether Fernando Tatis can continue what was an NL Comeback Player of the Year season last year. If not, Nick Evans and Fernando Martinez should be sitting at Triple-A and Jeremy Reed will be on the Mets’ roster as well. That’s certainly an area to watch at the trading deadline”, states Rubin.

While the Mets want to maintain their 2008 payroll, there is one Manny Ramirez still available on the market. Ramirez would galvanize the Mets’ lineup, taking the pressure off of David Wright and Carlos Beltran. His presence would alleviate the need for Carlos Delgado to replicate the second half of 2008. But, Rubin doesn’t think that will happen. “The Mets have been extremely adamant it’s not going to happen.” Of course, there is always the risk of Manny Ramirez deciding to quit on a whim. Someone like Adam Dunn or Bobby Abreu would come at a low cost and bring another hitter with high on base skills. All of this doesn’t even address the health issues of Ryan Church who battled concussions and the after-effects for much of the season.

Can the Mets win with the current offense? It depends on who fills out the rotation and how Mike Pelfry develops. Most likely, the Mets hold to the platoon in left field and see if it can get them to the trading deadline. But, do not discount Omar Minaya waiting to see if one of the free agent outfielders falls to his price range.

Can they Win with Wright and Reyes?

Perhaps the biggest question for Mets fans is whether or not the Mets are legitimate contenders. Assuming the rotation is sorted out adequately, they are viable contenders. David Wright and Jose Reyes are two of the most talented players in the game who are both entering their age 26 season.

Much has been made of Wright’s poor performance in the clutch last season (.243 with RISP), but his one poor season is not indicative of the type of hitter he has been throughout his career. In fact, Wright is a career .300 with runners in scoring position. It seems, as is usually the case, the New York fans and talk radio outlets overreacted and forget the type of hitter he really is. In fact, his poor performance with runners in scoring position may have been a result of the pressure from the previous September failure. “I think Wright felt the weight of the team on his shoulders late last season, as an actual New York resident who grew up rooting for the Mets’ Triple-A team and who lives and dies with the Mets’ success and failure. While I think there were a few late instances when he chased balls out of the strike zone in critical at-bats — that last week in the ninth against the Cubs, obviously — I think it’s hugely unfair to label him un-clutch for his career. He’s a lifetime .300 hitter with runners in scoring position.” David Wright is a premier performer who is and will be the backbone for the Mets for the next nine or 10 seasons. He’s a standup performer who is open and accessible to the fans and media. He is one of just a handful of players who excels on the field and “gets it” off the field. Hopefully Mets fans can remember that this season.

Jose Reyes may be the most dynamic player in baseball with his combination of speed, power, and thrilling defense. His “exuberance” often gets him in trouble as his dancing and celebrations have drawn the ire of opposing players and fans. Despite a .297/.358/.475 line with 16 homeruns, 68 RBI, and 56 stolen bases in 2008, Reyes fights the perception that he is a showboat or a player who lacks hustle or passion for the game. Rubin disagrees with that perception. “I’m not a big fan of the dancing after home runs, if that’s what you’re referring to as far as “showboating.” But that’s just a factor in terms of potentially inciting other teams. I don’t think it’s fair to take a couple of instances with Reyes when he didn’t run out balls — Willie Randolph once pulled him from a game in Houston — and label that a general lack of hustle. Lack of concentration may be the most fair of those criticisms. I think it’s more his dependence on athletic ability and a lack of “thinking the game” rather than outright lack of concentration, though.”

Whatever it is, Reyes is a rare talent who, like Wright, is just entering his prime. The idea of trading either of them is ludicrous and symptomatic of intense talk radio coverage which tends to look to make a splash rather than discuss with any type of rational thought. With Wright and Reyes on the left side of the infield, Beltran in centerfield, and with Johan Santana on the mound for the next seven or eight years, the Mets have the potential to compete for the foreseeable future.

Is the World Series a Reality for 2009?

With big money, elite players, and a new stadium, there is really one important question: Can the Mets win the World Series? There are, of course, big questions to be answered. Adam Rubin breaks it down:

“It’s certainly realistic for the Mets to win a World Series, though it’s hardly the likelihood. Assuming a roster that also has Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez or Randy Wolf, the major questions marks would be:

-Is Jon Niese really capable of being the fifth starter?

- Can Luis Castillo arrive in camp in better shape and have a bounce back year? Or will he get run out of town by Mets fans?

-Is Carlos Delgado the player who was batting .228 entering July 2008? Or the one who had 80 RBI over his final 84 games?

-Can Daniel Murphy and Fernando Tatis duplicate their ‘08 performances?

-Are Ryan Church’s concussions truly behind him, and can he be the player who may have been the Mets’ MVP until he collided with Yunel Escobar in Atlanta on May 20?

Clearly the Mets and Phillies are the class of the NL East, and the Phillies have the intangibles on their side, so to speak.”

Closing Thoughts

The 2009 Mets enter the season chasing the Phillies. But, it is important to remember that the 2008 offense ranked second in runs scored, batting average, and on base percentage. In addition, their pitching ranked sixth in runs allowed, a slightly above average ranking. In other words, if the Mets had a better bullpen or if Billy Wagner was able to pitch in the second half, they would have made the playoffs. With the bolstering of the bullpen and the assumed stocking of the rotation with Lowe, Wolf, or Perez, the pitching should rise to the level of the offense. With the Phillies about to deal with the loss of Chase Utley for the start of the season, the hangover effect of pitching extra post season innings (something that can’t be overlooked) as well as an expected drop off from their bullpen (will Lidge be perfect again?), the Mets enter the season with a more talented roster (again, assuming the rotation is filled). A left fielder named Ramirez would make them the prohibitive favorites, but the offense as constituted is playoff worthy. It will be interesting to see how Omar Minaya finishes his re-loading job that began so well with the additions of Rodriguez and Putz.  

Adam Rubin enters his seventh season covering the Mets for the New York Daily News. Visit his blog at www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets