Yankees Correct to Keep Cano

By Gary Armida

Robinson Cano, the 26 year old Yankees second baseman, is coming off of the worst season of his four year career. In 159 games, Cano posted a batting line of .271/.305/.410 with just 14 homeruns and 72 RBI. His poor season led to fans questioning his desire, hustle, and focus. At one point, trade rumors began to circulate with teams such as the Dodgers and Royals interested in acquiring the young second baseman. Even some knowledgeable writers on this very site opined that Cano should be sent packing from New York (ok, it was just me). Yes, the traditional numbers looked bad. His lackadaisical play in the field infuriated Yankees fans and just fans in general. He looked as if he didn’t care about his lost season. But, Cano is reportedly hard at work this off season to correct the flaws that led to his lost season. With that in mind and a closer look at Cano’s season, general manager Brian Cashman was correct for holding onto the young hitter. Although the Yankees acquired Mark Teixeira to bolster the lineup, the resurgence of Cano is the single most important development that the Yankees’ offense needs to vault back into the playoffs. Besides Teixeira and Rodriguez, the Yankees do not have another middle of the order hitter without questions heading into 2009. Cano has to prove to the organization, the mainstream fans and media that 2008 was merely an aberration, but he doesn’t have far to go. With a little luck (yes, luck), Cano can reclaim the title of the most young promising hitter in the Yankees order.   

The Cano Career

Robinson Cano has played four complete major league seasons. In those four years, he has posted a .303/.335/.468 batting line. He has never been a person who draws walks as evidenced by his 99 career walks in those four seasons. Conversely, he has always been a hitter who makes contact as his 272 career strikeouts in 2,218 at bats indicate. He is someone who can be described as a gap hitter with average power. In each of his four seasons, he has hit at least 34 doubles and 14 homeruns. In two of those seasons he hit 41 two-baggers.

Much was expected from Cano heading into the 2008 season. He was coming off of a 2007 where he hit .306/.353/.488 with 19 homeruns and 97 RBI with a career high 39 walks. That was following a very promising 2006 where he posted a .342/.365/.525 batting line. At the very least, Cano was expected to ascend up the batting order and eventually assume the prestigious third spot in the Yankees batting order.

It didn’t happen. Cano hit .151 in April and had a .246/.285/.385 batting line heading into the All-Star break. He seemed to have found himself a bit as he hit .307/.333/.482 in the second half. But, it was too late. He regressed in September as he posted a .303 OBP in his last 99 plate appearances. Fans were calling for a benching which manager Joe Girardi finally did late in the season. Cano’s luster wore off and many wondered if the Yankees would be better off without him.

2009 is a bit of a crossroads for Cano as he faces the challenge of regaining his reputation which was badly hurt by accusations of too much partying and not enough preparation. Yes, Cano’s statistics were down which led many to believe he wasn’t performing (including this writer). But, a deeper look shows that Cano really didn’t do much different.

Not So Lucky

Ok, brace yourself. In some ways, Robinson Cano actually showed improvement in 2008. First, Cano swung at 30.7 percent of pitches outside the strike zone. That was down from 34.7 percent in 2007. Cano made contact 88.8 percent of the time, the highest of his career. In fact, one could say Cano made too much contact. He made contact with 75.3 percent of pitches outside of the strike zone in 2008 compared with his previous career high of 69.2 percent. That, coupled with is slightly decreased contact percentage on balls in the strike zone, can answer why Cano’s average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage hit career lows in 2008.

But, the biggest indicator of his poor season may simply be luck. The league average of all balls put in play is approximately .315. In 2007, Cano’s BABIP was .331. In 2006, it was an incredible .363. In his awful 2008, his BABIP was .286, well below the league average. This was achieved despite a career high in contact percentage. Additionally, Cano posted a line drive percentage (amount of line drives hit when contact is made) of 19.4 percent which is similar to his 19.9 percent during his stellar 2006 season. What does this all mean? Simply put, it means that Robinson Cano was awfully unlucky last season. Perhaps Cano suffered through that “hit right ‘em” type season. His numbers do indicate quite a bit of bad luck. If he’s making contact at a similar or slightly higher rate and hitting line drives at similar rate, then one must conclude that Cano simply had an unlucky season.

But, one cannot just stop at luck. It’s a part of his “subpar” season, but it also relates to his new found penchant for making contact with balls outside of the strike zone. While it cannot be scientifically proven, a baseball fan would realize that hitting pitches outside of the zone should often lead to poorly hit balls. Further proof of his poor contact is his 1.43 groundball to fly ball ratio, which was a career low. It seems as if his poor approach and lack of discipline may have exacerbated his poor luck.

Closing Thoughts

Robinson Cano may never develop into that number three hitter that the Yankees were talking about just one winter ago. With his current approach and plate discipline, he will never get on base enough to justify a top four lineup position. He would have to bat at least .330 in order to justify that high of a position in the batting order. But, fortunately for Cano and the Yankees, he doesn’t have to with Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez in the lineup for the next eight years.

He can, however, return to his pre-2008 level with just minor adjustments and by simply finding the holes in the defense (an evening out of luck so to speak). With his new found dedication this winter and more consistent effort during the season, expect Robinson Cano to post a season closer to his career average rather than his 2008 season totals. A .300/.340/.450 with 15-20 homeruns, 40 doubles, and 90 RBI season is well within reach. With a slightly better approach at the plate and a bit better luck, Robinson Cano could once again be an all-star.

The statistics point to an unlucky season. Cano will have to prove that it was purely luck and not about preparation. If it’s about the latter, he will most surely get worse. Likely, given the close proximity of his to his previous years’ statistics, 2008 will be chalked up to “just one of those years”. Fortunately for the Yankees, Brian Cashman was smart enough to hold onto the second baseman just entering the beginning of his prime.

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