The 2009 Orioles: Baseball’s Most Improved Team?

By Gary Armida

The 2009 Baltimore Orioles are heading into a season with a revamped rotation, a deeper offensive team, and with the number one prospect in Major League Baseball. The revamped rotation is significant as the Orioles will likely have four new starters with just Jeremy Guthrie returning from last season. The offense, which was a strength, will be bolstered by a deep bench (Ty Wigginton and Ryan Freel), and the progression of Adam Jones and the newly acquired Felix Pie. Of course, Nick Markakis will likely take another step towards becoming a full- fledged superstar while Brian Roberts continues to play an above average second base. With a farm system that has grown to include top prospects Matt Wieters, Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta, and Brian Matusz, the Orioles organization seems poised to compete in the toughest division in Baseball. Has Team President Andy MacPhail turned the Orioles franchise into contenders for 2009? It’s not likely, but the same could’ve been said about the Tampa Rays just one year ago.

2008 in Review

The 2008 Orioles finished with a 68 and 93 record, good for last place in the American League East. 2008 marked the franchise’s 11^th consecutive losing season. The bright spots for the Orioles were all on the offensive end. The team finished 11^th in the Majors in runs scored, 13^th in homeruns, 17^th in stolen bases, and 11^th in OPS. The main culprit for the poor season was the poor pitching staff. The use of the word “poor” may be a huge understatement. Orioles’ starters had the worst ERA in Baseball (5.51). The rotation also ranked 27^th with a 1.56 WHIP with just 882 innings pitched. The resulting heavy load on the bullpen also caused problems as the relievers were overused and quite thin as well. The relievers ranked 25^th in Baseball with a 4.57 ERA while ranking 29^th with a 1.57 WHIP. One of the biggest reasons for the lack of success was the lack of strikeouts. The Orioles, as a whole staff, struck out just 922 batters, which ranked last in Major League Baseball. That total was so low that 29^th ranked team (Cardinals) had 35 more strikeouts.

The lone positive for the Orioles pitching staff was that a number of young pitchers-Radhames Liz, Chris Waters, Matt Albers, Jim Johnson, Kam Mickolio-took the hill and gained experience. Other than that, the Orioles were in need of an immediate makeover for the pitching staff while the young talent gets a bit more seasoning in the minors.

2009 Lineup

While the 2008 Orioles had a good offense, the ’09 version looks to be a bit better. The Orioles said goodbye to catcher Ramon Hernandez, Kevin Millar, and Jay Payton. While Hernandez and Millar added some power, none of the three departing members posted an OPS over .727. To re-vamp the team, the Orioles traded for the 23 year old Felix Pie and Ryan Freel, while signing Ty Wigginton, Gregg Zaun, and Cesar Izturis to low cost contracts. With the new depth, manager Dave Trembley will have the ability to play matchups and have options to use late in ballgames. Last season, he did not have those tools.

The infield will return with just one addition, short stop Cesar Izturis. Izturis has a reputation of being a quality defensive short stop with little in the way of offensive skills. The 29 year old is entering his ninth major league season with a career batting line of .260/.299/.331. He is a hitter who doesn’t strikeout out often, but walks even more infrequently. In fact, last season, he posted a .319 OBP with 29 walks, both the second best marks of his career (2004 had both career highs). Izturis is signed simply for defensive purposes. Last season, the Orioles had eight different players make appearances at shortstop. With Izturis, they will get an everyday, dependable defensive shortstop. Yes, he is a liability in the lineup, but considering the depth of the Orioles lineup as well as the fact that Orioles’ shortstops committed 29 errors last season, he will have value for the Orioles.

Brian Roberts will return to second base after signing a four year, $40 million dollar contract extension. Roberts, 31 years old, is the switch hitting leadoff hitter who has posted on base percentages of .377 or higher in three of the last four seasons. He’s hit at least 40 doubles in four of the last five seasons. His consistency at the plate and his workmanlike mentality makes him a fan favorite. One could expect another season of .290/.370/.440 with 40 doubles, 10 homeruns, 55 RBI, and 40 stolen bases. While he won’t garner national attention with those numbers, he is one of the better leadoff hitters and second basemen in the game.

The corners will be manned by Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora. Both veterans are coming off renaissance seasons as each drove in over 100 runs. Huff finished with a .304/.360/.522 batting line with 32 homeruns. Mora rebounded from two subpar power seasons to hit 23 homeruns while hitting .285/.342/.483. Huff will be the full-time first baseman in 2009 after spending the majority of his time at the designated hitter slot. At 32, Huff will have to prove that his 2008 wasn’t just a reminder of the hitter he was in 2002 through 2005, but a sign that he has once again found his stroke. Luckily, the Orioles have more depth to allow Huff and Mora to rest a bit more. For Mora, at 37 years old, the rest will be a welcome addition.

Providing that depth will be veteran Ty Wigginton who was signed to a two year, $6 million dollar contract. Wigginton has improved his on base percentage in every season since 2002. He has topped the 20 homerun mark in three consecutive seasons while playing third base, first base, second base, and the corner outfield positions. Even more significantly, Wigginton hits left handed pitchers quite well as he has a career batting line of .288/.364/.514 against southpaws. With Wigginton, the Orioles will be able to keep their corner infielders rested while also putting out a more complete lineup against left- handed pitching. He is an important element of this offense as the Orioles’ best hitters are left-handed (Markakis, Huff, Pie, and Luke Scott). Wigginton, along with Ryan Freel, will help the Orioles matchup better against southpaws.

The starting outfield for the Orioles may be the best defensive outfield in the game. With Felix Pie in leftfield, Adam Jones in centerfield, and Nick Markakis in rightfield, the Orioles outfield has the potential to not only be a great defensive unit, but an exciting unit. Markakis is the best player on the team with skills in all areas of the game-defense, throwing arm, running, and hitting skills. The left handed hitter has improved in each of his three major league seasons. His OPS has improved from his rookie total of .799 to his sophomore total of .847, to last season’s total of .897. In addition, his patience at the plate has developed as Markakis drew 99 walks in 2008 (up from 61 in 2007). While his 2008 homerun and RBI totals of 20 and 87 were a bit down from his 2007 season of 23 and 112, Markakis was a better hitter in 2008. His .406 OBP ranked third in the Major Leagues while his 283 times on base led all of baseball.

In Jones and Pie, the Orioles are banking on two young talented players to develop at the Major League level. Jones just finished his first full major league season in 2008. The 22 year old appeared in 132 games and hit .270/.311/.400 with 9 homeruns, 57 RBI, and 10 stolen bases. The 23 year old will have to improve his plate discipline and will have to show he is the hitter of the first half of 2008 rather than the one who faded in the second half. Pie does have a great minor league track record when one considers that he has been in professional baseball since he was 17 years old. In seven minor league seasons, Pie has appeared in 627 games and has accumulated 2,509 at bats. In that time, he has posted a .299/.353/.470 batting line with 62 homeruns, 206 walks, and 532 strikeouts. The strikeouts are a red flag, but his other statistics suggest a solid everyday player with an upside to be a perennial all-star. The Orioles will be patient, but will likely platoon the left handed hitter with veteran Ryan Freel. Freel is a solid major league hitter as he has a lifetime batting line of .272/.357/.376 with 142 career stolen bases. With a .261/.354/.382 line against southpaws, Freel will be an ideal platoon partner for Pie. Freel also adds the element of speed as well as his infectious, all-out style of play.

Left-handed slugger Luke Scott will function as the designated hitter as well as another option in the outfield. Scott, in his first opportunity as a regular player, hit .257/.336/.472 with 23 homeruns and 65 RBI. He does not hit left handed pitchers well so expect him to be a strict platoon option, once again, highlighting the importance of Ty Wigginton.

The catching position is the one truly exciting position for the Orioles. No, it is not because of veteran Greg Zaun who was signed to a one year, $1.5 million dollar deal or the presence of journeyman Chad Moeller. While those two may start the season as the Orioles’ catchers, the Baseball world awaits on the arrival of one of the top prospects in the game, Matt Wieters. Wieters is a 6’5″, 230 pound, switch hitting catcher who is generally regarded as the number two prospect in baseball (behind, of course, David Price of the Rays). Baseball America’s 2008 Minor League Player of the Year hit .355/.460/.625 with 27 homeruns, 91 RBI, 82 walks, 72 strikeouts, and 89 runs scored in 437 at bats during his lone minor league season. He is the Orioles answer to the 2008 Rays’ Evan Longoria. With a great spring Wieters may break camp as the starting catcher, but there is little doubt he will see significant time in the big leagues.

With the offense diverse, deep, and powerful, the Orioles should see a slight increase in production in 2009. Despite the age of Melvin Mora, the inexperience of Felix Pie and Adam Jones, the Orioles will receive an increase in production from Nick Markakis and Matt Wieters while getting consistent play from Brian Roberts and Aubrey Huff. Their offense is enough to be a good team, but they will need a dramatic improvement from their pitching staff.

The Rotation

 The Orioles lack the quintessential ace, but they do have a very good pitcher heading the rotation in Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie is just two years removed from being released by the Indians and picked up off of the scrap heap by the Orioles. In his two seasons with Baltimore, Guthrie has started 56 games while compiling ERA’s of 3.70 and 3.63. Last year, Guthrie threw 190.2 innings and gave up just 176 hits while walking 58 batters. He struck out 120 while compiling a 1.23 WHIP. His strikeout rate dropped and his walk rate rose in 2008, but Guthrie improved by giving up less homeruns per nine innings and inducing more groundballs (1.15 ground ball to fly ball ratio). The negative against Guthrie is his strikeout ability. Guthrie averaged just 5.66 strikeouts per nine innings. If he can increase the strikeout rate to his 2007 rate of 6.31, Guthrie will continue to improve. Additionally, while many think of Guthrie as a young pitcher, he is entering his age 30 season. On a good team, Guthrie is a solid number two pitcher or an excellent number three pitcher, but he functions as an adequate ace for the rebuilding Orioles. He will be overmatched against his counterparts within his division, but the underrated Guthrie will keep his team in games.

The rest of the rotation will be most likely a new staff. The first addition is Japanese import Koji Uehara. The right handed control pitcher uses a 91 mile per fastball, forkball, and cutter. Uehara has been a reliever over the past two seasons because of injuries, but he is viewed as a starting pitcher. In his rookie year of 1999, he beat out fellow rookie Diasuke Matsuzaka for the Rookie of the Year Award. In his 10 year career, he has thrown 1,549 innings while striking out 1,376 batters with a 3.01 career ERA. To illustrate his control, he has just allowed just 206 free passes in his career. The 34 year old Uehara can be a solid number three or four pitcher. For the Orioles, he will be the number two pitcher in the rotation. Because the Orioles had the lowest total strikeouts in 2008, Uehara’s impact on the rotation should be felt if he can approximate his Japan performance. Additionally, he is the only other pitcher guaranteed a rotation spot heading into spring training.

The battle for rotation spots 3 through 5 will be among a pool of young pitchers. The most likely winner of the number three spot is former Cubs southpaw Rich Hill. The 29 year old only started five games for the Cubs in 2008, but he did start 32 games in 2007. In 2007, Hill threw 195 innings, gave up 170 hits, 63 walks, and 183 strikeouts with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.195 WHIP. The issue with Hill will always be control as he walked 62 batters in 67.1 innings (combined between minor leagues and major leagues) in 2008. If Hill can harness his control, he is a significant addition given his track record of an 8.24 strikeout per nine innings ratio. If Uehara and Hill can provide the strikeouts that the 2008 Orioles’ starters could not, the defense will be less pressured and the number of runs allowed will decrease. Hill is the key to the 2009 success of the Orioles. He must develop.

Spots four and five will be a battle between a variety of pitchers. Young pitchers like Radhames Liz, Matt Albers, David Pauley, Chris Waters, and Hayden Penn will square off with veterans Mark Hendrickson, Danys Baez, and Brad Hennessey. The veterans could all find roles in the bullpen as well.  

Liz had a rough season in the major leagues in his 17 starts. He was 6 and 6 with a 6.72 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. While the right handed looked overmatched, his minor league statistics suggest a pitcher who can be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. More importantly, he has a history of strikeouts. In 87 minor league starts, Liz threw 451.1 innings, gave up just 359 hits, walked 219 (too high), and struck out 532 batters. With a good spring, Liz will likely claim the fourth spot. If he cannot perform well, he will be back at triple-A to start the season.

A pitcher with moderate upside is Matt Albers. Albers, 26 years old, is coming off of a season which ended early with a torn labrum. He is said to be healthy, but looks more like a candidate for the bullpen as he was much more effective working out of the Orioles bullpen in 2008. Albers had a 2.63 ERA in 37.2 innings of relief while posting a 6.35 ERA in three starts. Chris Waters made 11 starts last season. The 28 year old southpaw is not a high strikeout pitcher who gives up many hits. Control is a must in order for him to succeed at the Major League level. The Orioles would like 25 year old Hayden Penn to take hold of the job this spring after giving up 33 runs in 19.2 innings.

While the Orioles did upgrade the rotation, it will likely be the weakness of the 2009 team. If Liz can be a league average pitcher and the Orioles can piece together the fifth spot, it can be adequate. Additionally, Chris Tillman and company could be ready to pitch in the big leagues by July. 2009 is a small step in the right direction for the rotation. They’ll be better, but how much better is dependent on the performance of Hill, the transition of Uehara from Japan to America, and who fills the final two spots. Easily, this is the area that is hardest to project.

The Bullpen

The 2008 bullpen performed like an overused unit. Potentially, help is on the way for the Orioles. Chris Ray, their closer in 2006 and 2007, is coming off of Tommy John Surgery. He is still regaining arm strength, but is throwing pain free thus far. He isn’t guaranteed taking the job from 2008 closer George Sherrill, but if Ray can reclaim his job, it positions the bullpen to be much more efficient. Ray, who was fully healthy in 2007, threw 66 innings, gave up 45 hits, and struck out 51 batters along with his 2.73 ERA and 1.091 WHIP. Sherrill, who saved 31 games last season, would fall into the setup job where he flourished as a Seattle Mariner in 2007. Left-hander Jamie Walker will have to bounce back after a poor season. Last season was the first season since 2002 that Walker had an ERA over 3.71 and a WHIP over 1.274. If the 37 year old can regain his form, the left hander will team up with Jim Johnson and the 6’9″ 280 pound Kam Mickolio to form the middle relief portion of the ‘pen.

The bullpen is the one area that was largely untouched this off season. It could’ve benefited from adding a good arm like a Juan Cruz (who is still available in a sign and trade). But, considering the additions to the rotation and to the offense, it is understandable that the bullpen didn’t receive much attention. Perhaps the return of Chris Ray is enough to allow the rest of the bullpen to fit in their proper roles. Additionally, with so many pitchers fighting for the fourth and fifth spot in the rotation, the bullpen will likely have one or two of those pitchers become members (Hendrickson and Baez are the two most likely, but Albers is the most talented candidate of the bunch).

Best Case Scenario

The best scenario for the Orioles is that two young outfielders blossom into quality, patient major league hitters this year and Markakis takes another step forward. Matt Wieters begins the year with the Orioles and hits like a young Mike Piazza. On the pitching end, Koji Uehara baffles Major League hitters during his first season in the States while Rich Hill is able to throw strikes and produce like he did in 2007. Chris Ray returns to the closer role which allows George Sherrill to be the setup man, a role he thrives in. The Orioles stay in the pennant race until late August which is the time their young pitching begins to wear down. All of this adds up to 81 wins, a fourth place finish (ahead of the Blue Jays) and gives Orioles fans hope for the first time since 1996.

Reality Check

Most likely, the Orioles finish with 75-79 wins. They are an improved team, but finishing .500 in the American League East is a bit much to ask for. Matt Wieters likely starts the year in the minors, but does enough to win the Rookie of the Year Award. Guthrie, Uehara, Hill, and Liz form a solid, yet unspectacular rotation while Chris Rays takes about half of a season to fully regain his arm strength and conditioning. In all a 10 game improvement is quite a season for a team that has lost over 90 games each of the previous three seasons.

Closing Thoughts

For the first time in a decade, there is some excitement surrounding he once proud franchise. With young arms on the way, 2009 will likely be the year for them to get some experience during the second half of the season. The Orioles look to be contenders in 2010 or 2011. Andy MacPhail has done a tremendous job building depth, acquiring some veteran talent to stabilize the team, and getting some great prospects in trades. Baltimore fans should be excited as they have an actual Major League team to root for this season. With a better lineup, better bench depth, an improved rotation, and some good young talent almost ready to contribute, the Orioles will be the most improved team of 2009.

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