2009 Royals: Who Needs OBP?

By Gary Armida

The Kansas City Royals’ signing of Juan Cruz was an illustration of how a small market team should have dealt with this depressed free agent market. This off season represented a golden opportunity for small market teams to sign players that they couldn’t ordinarily afford. Cruz, one of the best relievers on the free agent market, did not garner much attention this off season because he was a type-A free agent. Signing Cruz would cost his new team a draft pick (he costs the Royals a second round pick). Although Cruz has performed as an elite reliever over the past two seasons (112.2 innings, 79 hits, 64 walks, 158 strikeouts, 2.88 ERA, 1.260 WHIP), he sat on the free agent market waiting. The Royals, seizing an opportunity, signed Cruz to a two year, $6 million dollar contract with a third year option. The signing of the talented reliever completes a busy off season for General Manager Dayton Moore and the Kansas City Royals. Moore has added (through trades and free agency) Coco Crisp, Mike Jacobs, Willie Bloomquist, Kyle Farnsworth, and Cruz to the Major League core of Alex Gordon, Billy Butler, David DeJesus, Gil Meche, Zack Greinke, and Joakim Soria. For the first time in years, there is optimism in Kansas City. Is this new optimism merely a function of Spring Training or is there validity in the hope that the Royals can have just their second winning season since 1993? Today, the Kansas City Royals go under the FCP microscope.

2008 in Brief

The 2008 Royals were the very definition of the word inconsistent. For the year, they finished 75-87, good for fourth in the American League Central. A look at their monthly records illustrated their inconsistency. In May, the Royals won 11 while losing 19, but followed that up with a 16 and 11 June. After a near .500 July, the Royals hit the dog days of August by playing like, well, dogs. With a 7-20 record, the Royals were heading for another 90-plus loss season. But, they finished the season with an 18 and 8 September record. They had a 20-18 record in one run games, but lost 31 games by five or more runs.

The Royals ranked near the bottom of the league in almost every major offensive category. Their 620 runs scored, .320 on base percentage and .397 slugging percentage ranked 12^th among the 14 American League teams. The Royals’ 120 homeruns were good for 13^th in the American League. On the pitching side, the Royals staff was just slightly better, posting a 4.50 team ERA which was good for 10^th in the league. The staff walk total (515) and strikeout total (1,085) were both a mediocre 7^th.

With a poor offense, a middling defense (96 errors-ranked 13^th in all of Baseball), and shallow pitching staff, General Manager Dayton Moore had to fill the roster with productive players while allowing his young core of Gordon, Butler, and DeJesus to continue its development.

2009 Offense: Who Needs OBP?

Dayton Moore has received criticism for his two major offensive acquisitions. Mike Jacobs and Coco Crisp were acquired at the cost of two of their best relievers in 2008 and come with flaws that seem to fit right in with the 2008 offense. For his career, Jacobs is a .262/.318/.498 hitter. The real issue with adding Jacobs is the fact that his OBP has fallen in each of the last three seasons. But, the Royals do add a player coming off of a 32 homerun, 93 RBI season, something that they desperately need in 2009. Both totals were, however, career highs and totals he hasn’t come close to posting during his first two seasons. The Royals will have to hope that Jacobs is really a 30 homerun first baseman or they have clogged a position that could’ve been given to Billy Butler (who shifts to DH), Ryan Shealy, or Kila Ka’aihue. The power may be there, but he exacerbates the problem of a lack of base runners.

The middle infield will be manned by second baseman Alberto Callaspo and shortstop Mike Aviles. Callaspo was once a highly touted prospect who has a minor league career line of .317/.370/.426 in his seven minor league seasons (he was 19 when he was signed as an amateur free agent). The switch hitting 26 year old seems to be in line for his first real opportunity to start in the Major Leagues after playing parts of three seasons with the Diamondbacks and Royals. Last season, in 214 at bats for the Royals, he hit .290/.361/.371. The Royals will be satisfied if he can replicate that line. The true surprise was Mike Aviles who seemingly came out of nowhere to hit .325/.354/.480 with 10 homeruns and 51 RBI. Aviles’ great season is tempered by the fact that he walked just 18 times in 102 games. His career minor league OBP is just .338. Royals’ fans should worry that Aviles’ batting average on balls put in play was well above the league average of .315. Aviles BABIP was an astounding .359, suggesting quite a bit of luck. If he doesn’t improve his plate discipline, he may be in for a long season. Other middle infield candidates include veteran utility man Willie Bloomquist and Mark Teehan. Bloomquist was given a two year contract in the off season, but will likely just fill in when needed. If Bloomquist and his .322 career OBP gets more than 150 at bats, all of the optimism in Kansas City will be for naught. Teehan is trying to find a position and is getting time at second base. In the early going, he is having a tough time at second, but he will be a utility player who can play first, third, and the corner outfield positions if he is not traded.

The Royals’ hopes for contention in 2009 are wrapped up in the development of third baseman Alex Gordon and designated hitter Billy Butler. Gordon, 25 years old, is entering his third full season after hitting .260/.351/.432 with 16 homeruns and 59 RBI. Gordon’s sophomore season was an improvement as he lowered his strikeout total and raised his walk total. With better health, Gordon is expected to take a huge leap in his development in 2009. A .300/.370/.475 season with 25 homeruns is in the realm of possibility. Butler, who started slowly last season, finished at .275/.324/.400 in 443 at bats. His 11 homeruns and 55 RBI were mostly compiled in the second half of the season which serves as reason for optimism for the 23 year old right handed hitter. Eventually, Butler could develop into a .300/.370/.500 hitter who hits 30 homeruns. For next season, expect 20 homeruns and another step in his progression.

The Royals catching tandem of John Buck and Miguel Olivo will hit for power, but will struggle to post an OBP over .300. One could make the argument that the majority of teams are in this situation, but the Royals divisional competition do not have this issue as the Indians have a pair of catchers in Shoppach and Martinez while the Twins have Joe Mauer.

In the outfield, the Royals will shift David DeJesus to left field which makes room for Coco Crisp in centerfield. Right field will be manned by Jose Guillen. DeJesus seemed to breakout in 2008 with is .307/.366/.452 with 12 homeruns and 73 RBI. But, much like the Royals other hitters, DeJesus walked only 46 times and had a BABIP of .338. One should expect similar production from DeJesus, but not a huge leap in statistics considering his lack of plate discipline. Coco Crisp is an interesting acquisition as he provides excellent defense and is eerily similar to David DeJesus at the plate. Crisp is a .280/.331/.409 hitter who is capable of 15 homeruns and stealing 30 bases. His OBP isn’t great, but he does represent an upgrade for the Royals. Jose Guillen is another poor on base percentage player, but he is capable of 20-25 homeruns when healthy.

When looking at the offense as a whole, the 2009 version looks similar to the 2008 version. They will have an upgrade in power, but will still have trouble getting runners get on base. In other words, there will be more solo homeruns. Within their division, the case could be made that the Royals have the worst offense of the bunch, but if Alex Gordon and Billy Butler continue to develop while DeJesus, Guillen, Jacobs, and Crisp produce to expectations, they could be an adequate offense. They won’t finish 13^th in homeruns and 12^th in slugging percentage, but they will likely finish near the bottom in on base percentage.

Pitching: Are two starters and two relievers enough?

The rotation is anchored by Gil Meche and Zack Greinke. For all of hubbub of the Meche contract, the fact is Meche has started over 30 games in three consecutive seasons and has thrown over 210 innings in each of his two years in Kansas City. One can expect Meche to throw 200 innings, post an ERA of 3.75 and a WHIP 1.30. With a better offense, he could win 16 to 18 games. He’s not an ace, but he is a solid, reliable pitcher who is performing up to his contract.

Zack Greinke is the key to the Royals’ season. Greinke took a big step in his development in 2008 by posting a 13-10 record with a 3.47 ERA and 1.275. He threw 202.1 innings, gave up 202 hits, while walking 56 and striking out 183. At 25, Greinke is on the threshold of entering his prime. His tremendous 2008 season is just two seasons removed from almost being out of Baseball due to personal problems. There is no doubt that Greinke is talented with an upside of a quality number one starter or a great number two starter. But, he is coming off a season where he threw 80 more innings than he did during the previous year. More than likely, consider Greinke will continue to assent to being a quality major league pitcher. There are worries, but his stuff suggests star.

The rest of the rotation is a question mark. Luke Hochever is just 25 years old and one of the Royals better prospects. He is expected to fill the fifth spot in the rotation after faltering a bit in his rookie season by starting 22 games and finishing with a 6-12 record, a 5.51 ERA in 129 innings. Hochever seems to be a rushed prospect as he posted just a 4.35 minor league ERA in his three minor league seasons. There is talent, but to expect Hochever to become a league average pitcher is unrealistic. He’ll be better, but trimming a full run off of his ERA is quite a tall task. The fourth slot is likely to be filled by Brian Bannister. Bannister had a great 2007 season when he won 12 games and posted a 3.87 ERA in 165 innings. He seemed to regress in 2008 by compiling a 5.76 ERA in 32 starts. Bannister gave up 215 hits in 182.2 innings. His struggles come from not being a strikeout pitcher and giving up so many fly balls. With some good prospects, Bannister is the least likely to last the season in the rotation.

The third slot will be occupied by Kyle Davies. Davies, the former Braves prospect, had a successful run in the second half of 2008. In the second half, Davies threw 64 innings, gave up 62 hits, walked 23, and struck out 46 while posting a 3.66 ERA. The Royals are hoping that Davies is finally making good on his promise after posting a 2.86 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP in his eight minor league seasons. At 25, there is still reason to believe that Davies can be a solid middle of the rotation pitcher. He’s far from a sure thing, but he can be league average in 2009.

With a thin rotation, the Royals have to hope that some of their prospects are getting closer to being ready to help. Daniel Cortes is likely another season away after finishing up in double-A. The 22 year old was 10-4 with a 3.78 ERA in 116 innings (with 109 strikeouts). He needs a year at triple-A before he can be considered. Daniel Duffy is just 20 years old, but has 165 strikeouts in 119 career minor league innings. He hasn’t pitched above A-Ball so a season at double-A is likely in the cards for this strikeout machine. Carlos Rosa may be the most ready to help in 2009, but Duffy, Cortes, and Danny Gutierrez are their better starting pitching prospects.

The bullpen will be composed of veteran right hander Kyle Farnsworth, new acquisition Juan Cruz, lefty Ron Mahay, and some combination of Joel Peralta, Horacio Ramirez, and John Bale. Of course, Joakim Soria will anchor the bullpen as the closer. The additions of Farnswoth and Cruz are significant as they are strikeout pitchers. Royals relievers ranked 23^rd in all of Baseball with 396 strikeouts in 496 innings. Farnsworth had 61 strikeouts in 60.1 innings in 2008 while Cruz, as stated earlier, had 158 strikeouts in 112.2 innings. The 2008 bullpen compiled a 4.26 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP. They are capable of a better 2009 considering that Cruz is a significant upgrade over any of their relievers. Soria, just to reiterate his dominance, has thrown 136.1 innings while giving up just 85 hits, 38 walks, and 141 strikeouts. He’s one of the best closers in the game as he enters his third major league season.

The bullpen projects to be slightly better than league average. Soria and Cruz are elite for their roles while Farnsworth is a league average middle reliever. Ron Mahay should continue to hold both left handed and right handed batters to a .250 average. With those four, the Royals look to have a stable bullpen. Their problem may ultimately be overuse considering the backend of the Royals’ rotation.

Soria a starter?

With the addition of Juan Cruz, speculation has grown about the idea of Joakim Soria moving into the rotation. This idea is fueled by Soria’s performance as a starter in the Mexican League. While he worked mostly as a reliever, Soria started 11 games in 2006. He posted a 9-0 record with a 1.77 ERA. During that season, he threw a perfect game. He has been used as a reliever since coming to the Royals as a Rule V draft pick in 2007.

The notion of starting Soria is interesting. A good starter is far more valuable than a reliever who throws essentially one inning during each appearance. 200 innings are more valuable than 60 innings. If Soria can transition to the rotation, he would give the Royals a complete rotation and a formidable top three. But, there are issues with Soria’s transition that make his case much different than those of Joba Chamberlain of the Yankees or Brandon Morrow of the Mariners. Soria, while his brief track record as a starter is impressive, doesn’t have much in the way of proof that he would be an effective starter other than that stint in the Mexican League. Chamberlain and Morrow have minor league experience and have shown promise.

The Royals, unlike the Yankees and the Mariners, should leave Soria as the closer. Because they have good, young pitching on the way, Soria will have more value to the team at the closer role. Juan Cruz has never closed a game and Kyle Farnsworth proved below average in the role. If the Royals have intentions of competing, Soria needs to close out close games. With that being said, if the Royals were to move him into the rotation as an audition, it wouldn’t be the worst move. For 2009, however, Soria needs to remain in the bullpen as he represents their best chance to win.

Best Case Scenario

Alex Gordon and Billy Butler become all-stars, Mike Jacobs hits 40 homeruns, and Mike Aviles gets some plate discipline while Zack Greinke ascends to pitching elite. If the backend of the rotation can be league average, the Royals finish with 86 wins and fight for the division crown.

Reality Check

2009 will be the season of growth, albeit slow and steady growth. Gordon and Butler develop, but are a year away from superstardom. Greinke pitches well, buts fades in the second half due to the additional innings over the past two seasons. The backend of the rotation’s ERA hovers around 5.50 while Royals lead the league in solo homeruns. Even with all the issues, 81 wins is realistic. They won’t contend, but they more fun to watch.

Closing Thoughts

Dayton Moore was certainly busy this off season. He acquired some power, defense, and rebuilt the bullpen. His offensive moves lack the vision of the importance of on base percentage. But, for the first time in many years, there is reason for optimism. With the continued development of Gordon, Butler, Greinke, and Soria, the Royals have the makings of a quality team. They’ll be on the periphery for most of the season, but will fall short due to the shallow pitching.

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