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Solving the Yankees Center Field Battle

By Gary Armida

Normally, a Yankees’ spring training consists of high priced free agents getting acclimated to the number of media personnel following their every move, players trying to stay healthy, explaining how the mission is the World Series, and a press conference or two to diffuse some sort of controversy. This spring, of course, has seen all of the above. But, there is one key difference this spring for the Yankees. For the first time in many years, there are real live position battles taking place. That’s right; the $200 million dollar team has four players battling for two starting positions in the opening day lineup. Both battles are taking place in the outfield. While the WBC and some guy named Rodriguez continue to dominate the headlines, the real news in Yankees camp should be who is starting in centerfield and who would function as the best everyday right fielder. The centerfield competition breaks down to either former starter and 2008 underachiever Melky Cabrera against the fleet footed, light hitting Brett Gardner. While the right field competition between Nick Swisher and Xavier Nady will likely come down to a combination of performance, bench makeup, and a possible trade, the centerfield position is infinitely more interesting. Manager Joe Girardi does have some tough decisions to make as there is not an apparent clear favorite to win the job. Each player brings flaws to the table. It becomes a matter of who can help the Yankees the most in 2009.

The Melkman

Melky Cabrera is just 24 years old and is entering his fourth full major league season. As a 21 year old rookie, Cabrera played all three outfield positions before getting the full-time centerfield job. During that season, Cabrera hit .280/.360/.391 with 7 homeruns, 50 RBI, and 12 stolen bases in 130 games. He entered the 2007 season as the full-time centerfielder. He regressed at bit in ‘07 by posting a .327 OBP, but he played in 150 games, hit 8 homeruns and drove in 73 runs. Last season was his worst season as a professional as he hit just .249/.301/.341. His performance led to him being jettisoned to Scranton for a significant amount of time. He didn’t return to centerfield for the remainder of the season. Further complicating matters, Cabrera was said to have a poor work ethic. While Cabrera plays an adequate to slightly above average centerfield, he is hardly a great outfielder despite his throwing arm.

The fact that Cabrera doesn’t walk much or post high on base percentages is not news. He has decreased his walk total in each of the last three seasons. His minor league batting line of .296/.347/.420 with 116 walks in 372 games does not indicate someone with tremendous plate discipline. The issue with a lack of discipline with Cabrera is bigger than that of a power hitter because Cabrera doesn’t add much to a lineup. A player who hits 8 homeruns and drives in 60 to 70 runs is not someone who can overcome a below average on base percentage like a 30 homerun player can. Because of his lack of power, his worth is how much he can get on base to create opportunities for the hitters that follow him. His worth is dependent on his batting average because of his lack of power and lack of patience at the plate. Unlike 2006 and 2007 where his BABIP was over .300, Cabrera posted a .273 BABIP in 2008. One could say it was bad luck or his knack for swinging at bad pitches.

Brett Gardner

Cabrera’s competition is Brett Gardner, a 24 year old left-handed hitting speedster. Gardner had two stints with the 2008 Yankees where he largely struggled to hit Major League pitching. Because of a decent finish, his ugly batting line of .228/.283/.299 actually looks better than the performance he gave for most of his time. He did, however, steal 13 bases in 42 games while playing solid defense. Unlike Cabrera, Gardner does have a minor league track record that indicates plate discipline. For his four year minor league career, Gardner compiled a batting line of .290/.389/.385 with 233 walks in 384 games. His downside is that he supplies absolutely zero power. He hasn’t had more than 18 doubles or 5 homeruns in any of his minor league seasons. However, his speed did allow him to hit 11 triples in 2008. Obviously, Gardner brings the element of a speed to the Yankees as he has stolen at least 30 bases in each of his full minor league seasons. He often looked overmatched during his time in New York and is someone who can be overpowered.

The Winner

As for a winner, it will likely come down to spring training performance. However, if the players perform to a draw, the winner should be Gardner. With Cabrera, his track record and possibility for growth seems quite limited. If there is not a drastic improvement in plate discipline and overall approach at the plate, Cabrera can be nothing more than a serviceable fourth or fifth outfielder on a good team. He does not bring one plus attribute to the offensive side of the ball. He doesn’t hit for power and doesn’t hit exceedingly well in clutch situations (.262/.329/.356). With Gardner, there is still the element of the unknown. Can his minor league statistics, and more importantly, patience translate to the Major Leagues? One has to question whether Gardner has the career path of Joey Gathright, a stolen base threat who hasn’t perfected the art of stealing first, or of 17 year veteran, Brett Butler. If it’s the latter, the Yankees will have a solid centerfield who is capable of batting leadoff and stealing bases for many years. He would also represent the one true stolen base threat in the Yankees’ order. Johnny Damon is likely to run less as is Derek Jeter. Gardner would be the equivalent to the Red Sox’s Jacoby Ellsbury or Rays’ Carl Crawford strictly in terms of stolen bases. Most importantly, Cabrera is a known quantity; Gardner is not. With his minor resume, Gardner deserves at least half a season to prove his worth. If progress isn’t made, Brian Cashman can either choose to go back to Cabrera or make a trade.

A Different Approach

The competition is between Cabrera and Gardner for the simple fact that the Yankees do not have another average defensive centerfielder on the roster. Johnny Damon’s time as an adequate centerfielder has passed while Nick Swisher is more of a corner outfielder who can play center field on occasion. But, if one looks at the 2009 rotation, the need for a supremely gifted starting centerfielder may not be paramount.

With CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Joba Chamberlain, the Yankees have three pitchers who are capable of averaging 8+ strikeouts per nine innings. Last season, Sabathia averaged 8.93 K/9, Burnett posted a 9.39 K/9 mark while Chamberlain had a 10.19 K/9 ratio in 21 starts. With Andy Pettitte still a slightly above average strikeout pitcher (6.97 K/9 in a bad year) and a healthy Chien Ming Wang likely to improve on his 5.12 K/9, there will be less balls put in play to test the Yankees’ defense. Sabathia, Burnett, and Chamberlain (if he had qualified) ranked in the top six in the strikeouts per nine innings among all Major League pitchers.

Another aspect to consider about the 2009 rotation is their groundball tendencies. Each starter can be classified as a groundball pitcher. Chien Ming Wang, a notorious groundball pitcher, had a 2.41 groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) in 2008. The rest of the rotation also induces more groundballs (Sabathia-1.47, Burnett-1.52, and Chamberlain-1.29). With the exception of Chamberlain, each of the Yankees’ rotation members ranked in the top 28 in GB/FB ratio.

It is unlikely, but the Yankees could play an outfield of Swisher, Damon, and Nady (from left to right). Although Damon is a below average centerfielder, the Yankees’ reliance on the strikeout and the groundball do make him less of a liability. That outfield gives the Yankees the best possible offense which could score a bit more each game. Either Cabrera or Gardner could be inserted late in games to shore up the outfield defense. Again, this is not a great defensive alignment, but the value of the offense coupled with the type of pitching staff the Yankees have could actually result in a few more wins. If anything, this alignment could be used when the Yankees offense becomes stagnant.

Closing Thoughts

Sometimes the unknown quantity is better than the known. In this case, Brett Gardner is the unknown who may give the Yankees a better lineup. If his minor league statistics can translate to the Major Leagues, the Yankees are a better, more diversified team.

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