Home / 2009 Team Preview, Features By Gary Armida / 2009 Milwaukee Brewers: Is There Enough Pitching?

2009 Milwaukee Brewers: Is There Enough Pitching?

By Gary Armida

If not for the Tampa Rays’ miraculous run to the World Series, the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers would’ve been the season’s best story. For the first time since Harvey’s Wallbangers, the Brewers found themselves in the playoffs. Even more importantly, the historically frugal franchise “went for it” by trading their best prospect, Matt LaPorta, in a package of players in order to acquire pending free agent, CC Sabathia. The move worked as the Brew Crew made the playoffs behind the gritty performance of Sabathia, who ignored free agency and took the ball on three days rest for the final month of the season. After a brief October appearance, the joy of their accomplishment quickly dissipated. Sabathia signed a historic deal and is now pitching in pinstripes. Ben Sheets is lost in the void of free agency and perpetually trying to rehabilitate an injury (in this case he’s recovering from elbow surgery). Despite payroll off the books (Eric Gagne, Sheets, Sabathia), the Brewers only brought in bargain contract players Trevor Hoffman, Braden Looper, and Jorge Julio. With the rotation clearly downgraded, the bullpen possibly bolstered, the 2009 Brewers will lean on their young, powerful offense to lead them to another playoff berth. The question becomes, is that offense good enough?

2008 by the Numbers

The 2008 Brewers scored 750 runs, ranking 7th in the National League. Many of those runs came on the homerun as their 198 long balls were third most in the NL. With 324 doubles (2nd in the NL) and 35 triples (5th in NL), the Brewers offense was able to score quickly and, obviously, powerfully. However, their offense was marred by a lack of plate discipline as they accumulated 1,203 strikeouts. For the season, the team hit .253/.325/.431, ranking 12th, 10th, and 5th respectively.

The pitching staff was the surprise of the season as the Brewers staff compiled a 3.87 ERA, second best in the NL. Because of Ben Sheets and CC Sabathia, the Brewers led the league with 12 complete games, with Sheets and Sabathia combining for all 12. The staff struck out 1,110 batters (8th in NL), walked 528 (5th in NL), and had 26 blown saves (12th in the NL). If not for the performances of Sabathia and Sheets, the poor Milwaukee bullpen would’ve been exposed as the other three rotation members were either league average or below.

2009 Offense: More of the Same

The Brewers offense returns in 2009 intact. The same lineup sans Ray Durham will open the 2009 season. For the Brewers to succeed, they will need their young players, specifically Prince Fielder, JJ Hardy, and Ryan Braun to continue to develop. With their starting pitching likely to regress, the onus will be on the offense to shoulder more of the load.

Jason Kendall will be back behind the plate for the Brewers. He hit .246/.327/.324 with 2 homeruns and 49 RBI. The 35 year old was once a high on base percentage hitter with OBP’s of .399 or higher in five of his 13 seasons. While his offensive skills are clearly declining, Kendall is still an average defensive catcher who handles a pitching staff well. He’s still quite durable, but he is a non-factor on offense. Mike Rivera has the second cushiest job in Baseball, second only to Brad Ausmus who backs up Russell Martin. Expect, as the subtitle suggests, more of the same from Kendall this season. A .240/.330/.325 season while catching 130 games is a realistic projection. The Brewers don’t get better, but they do not get worse at the catcher position.

Prince Fielder is one of just two true power sources for the Brewers. In his three full seasons, Fielder has hit 112 homeruns and driven in 302 runs. Of course, he’s had 380 strikeouts. Last season, Fielder hit .276/.372/.507 with 34 homeruns and 102 RBI. Fielder got off to a terrible start in 2008, but finished with good power numbers. However, when compared to his 2007 season of 50 homeruns and 119 RBI, 2008 was a regression. He struck out a career high 134 times, and swung and missed 13.9 percent of the time at pitches thrown in the strike zone. Many blamed his poor start on poor conditioning as Fielder appeared vastly overweight for much of last season. He has come into Spring Training noticeably slimmer which can always help. As Fielder just begins to enter his prime (he’s only 25), the Brewers can expect better than he gave in 2008. He can reasonably be projected to hit .280/.375/.525 with 40 homeruns. Conditioning may be an issue with Fielder, but if he can maintain health, he is on a similar level with Philadelphia Phillies superstar, Ryan Howard.

Rickie Weeks has a world of talent, but has a difficult time staying on the field. It is likely a “make or break” year for the 26 year old. Last year was actually a career year for Weeks as he played in a career high 129 games. But, his .234/.342/.398 batting line illustrates a player who has not fulfilled his promise. Additionally, he swung and missed on 15.1 percent of all pitches thrown in the strike zone. The talent is there and if he can stay healthy Weeks could produce a .250/.360/.425 season with 15 homeruns, 100 runs scored, and 20 stolen bases. If Weeks can stay on the field, he will provide the biggest boost to the Brewers’ offensive attack out of the leadoff spot. If one wants a reason why the Brewers didn’t score more than 750 runs despite the presence of two young superstars, one shouldn’t look past Weeks. Weeks’ performance stymied the Brewers offense in 2008. Because they had above average pitching, his poor performance was lessened. With the expected decline in pitching, the Brewers need Weeks to perform to his press clippings. The talent is there, but he needs to finally put it all together.

While JJ Hardy’s 2008 power numbers looked similar to his 2007 output, Hardy clearly took a step forward in 2008. Entering his age 26 season, expectations are high as many expect Hardy to take another step towards being an elite shortstop in the National League. Last year, Hardy hit .283/.343/.478 with 24 homeruns and 74 RBI. He improved his on base percentage by 20 points while increasing his slugging percentage and walks. One could realistically expect a modest increase in his offensive production, but it would be a stretch to think of Hardy as a 30 homerun hitter. A .280/.350/.475 season with 25 homeruns and 90 RBI can be expected.

Third base is the proverbial black hole of the Brewers. 29 year old Bill Hall will get the first crack at being an everyday third baseman, but if he struggles, he will find himself in a platoon with Mike Lamb. It will more than likely end up as a platoon as Hall hit just .174/.242/.316 against right-handed pitching in 2008. If Hall can demonstrate the ability to hit right-handed pitching at a respectable level, he will get more playing time. Mike Lamb can be an adequate platoon mate, but he gets on base at a .336 clip against right-handed pitching. Because he would be getting the majority of the at bats against righties, he will be a negative force in the Brewers’ lineup. Because the Brewers are strong at every other position, they can afford less than league average performance out of their third basemen. Of course, 23 year old left-handed hitter, Mat Gamel could claim the job after hitting .329/.395/.537 with 19 homeruns and 96 RBI in double-A. He likely needs more time in triple-A, but there is a possibility that he ends up with the job before the season is out.

The outfield was one of the most productive in Baseball last season as Corey Hart, Mike Cameron, and Ryan Braun combined to hit 82 homeruns and drive in 267 runs. They also added 54 stolen bases. Corey Hart settled into the everyday right field job and hit .268/.300/.459 with 20 homeruns, 91 RBI, and 23 stolen bases. He earned the fans’ vote to become an All-Star, but faded down the stretch, hitting just .173/.192/.245 in September. Without better plate discipline (just 27 walks in 612 plate appearances), one cannot expect Hart to provide much more than 20 homeruns and a similar batting line to 2008. If he can get on base closer to the .350 rate he did in 2007, expect a modest boost in production.

Mike Cameron is 36 years old and still one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game. He is also one of the game’s more dependable players. Over the past three seasons, Cameron has hit at least 20 homeruns, driven in at least 70 runs with at least 15 stolen bases. A .240/.330/.470 season with another 20 homeruns and 70 RBI is reasonable. If the Brewers fall out of contention before the trading deadline, Cameron will be traded as he is in the final year of his contract. He’s not a superstar, but he is a dependable, quality centerfielder.

Ryan Braun is a designated hitter playing left field. Fortunately, his offensive production far outweighs his defensive liabilities. After exploding on the scene in 2007 to capture the Rookie of the Year Award, Braun moved to left field and produced another quality season, his first full Major League season. Braun hit .285/.335/.553 with 37 homeruns and 106 RBI with 14 stolen bases. His high strikeout total and low walk total are troubling, but his talent is immense. A modest projection of .290/.350/.575 with 40 homeruns is easily within reach. Out of everyone on the young, talented Brewers offense, look for Braun to develop the most in 2009. An MVP season is certainly a distinct possibility.

The lone negative to the Brewers’ young offensive attack is the lack of depth. As with most small market teams the bench will be a liability. But, if the young players can stay healthy, the Brewers should expect an increase in production from Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, and Braun. If Cameron and Hart can maintain their 2008 levels, the Brewers could be one the top scoring teams in the Major Leagues. It’s a good thing because they may have to be in order to compete.

2009 Pitching: Gallardo ready?

The 2009 rotation will be led by 23 year old right-handed pitcher Yovani Gallardo. Make no mistake; Gallardo is one of the top young pitching prospects in the game. Last season, he entered the year with great expectations only to have his season end with a knee injury. In just four starts, Gallardo had thrown 24 innings, allowed 22 hits, 8 walks, and 20 strikeouts with a 1.88 ERA and 1.250 WHIP. His minor league numbers suggest ace as he has thrown 395.2 innings during parts of five seasons in the Brewers’ system. He allowed just 303 hits, 143 walks, and 457 strikeouts with a 2.59 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He will need to walk fewer batters and can be counted on to have a 7+ strikeouts per nine innings ratio. It may be a season too soon to expect Gallardo to lead a rotation, but he isn’t coming back from an arm injury. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect him to have similar stuff from last season. If Gallardo can make 30 starts, he is capable of winning 15 games, throwing 180+ innings and striking out close to a batter per inning. If the Brewers want to return to the playoffs, Gallardo must lead them as the rest of the rotation (aside from Manny Parra) has zero upside, but Major League average pitchers.

Manny Parra is a 26 year old left-handed pitcher who made 29 starts in 2008. In 166 innings he gave up 181 hits, 75 walks, and 147 strikeouts with a 4.39 ERA and a 1.542 WHIP. The Brewers are counting on him to be a middle of the rotation pitcher. While southpaws typically take longer to develop, his minor league numbers suggest that he projects to little more than a number four or five starter. In 545.2 career minor league innings, he’s given up 538 hits, 147 walks, and 528 strikeouts with a 3.07 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. His strikeout numbers are quite good, but he gives up far too many hits. However, that could be explained by the fact that his BABIP was .336 in 2008, far above league average. He is a groundball pitcher who had a tremendous 1.92 groundball to fly ball ratio. With better command, he can become a solid, middle of the rotation pitcher. It seems unlikely that he develops any further than that.

The rest of the rotation is filled with veterans Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, and Braden Looper. All three veterans can be counted on to pitch between 170 to 200 innings, post an ERA in the neighborhood of 4.50 and a close to league average WHIP. They won’t strikeout many hitters, but they will keep the Brewers in the game. With only David Bush averaging more than 5 strikeouts per nine innings, the Brewers defense will be challenged with the amount of balls put into play.

The bullpen underachieved at the beginning of the 2008, but stabilized once Salomon Torres took over as closer. The Brewers bullpen will look slightly different in 2009. First, Trevor Hoffman is now closing games. Hoffman, the all-time saves leader, will provide steady, yet unspectacular work and give the Brewers their most reliable closer since Dan Plesac. Hoffman is 41 years old and isn’t dominant, but he is coming off of a season where he struck out a batter per inning and posted another great WHIP (1.037). Going to an offensive home park may hurt his ERA a bit, but nothing will rattle the veteran.  In front of him will be a group that could include David Riske, Jorge Julio, Todd Coffey, Carlos Villanueva, Mitch Stetter, and Seth McClung. One positive is that Villanueva and McClung can give multiple innings as they have both started games in the past. David Riske is the key as he must revert back to his 2007 form. If he can, he is one of the better setup men in the game. Like every other bullpen, this one is tough to project. Julio threw well in 12 appearances with the Atlanta Braves last season, but has a history of poor performances. Todd Coffey showed ability with the Reds, but suffered from overuse during the 2005-2006 seasons. At best, the bullpen projects as an average bullpen. At worst, it is among the worst in the game.

The true question is whether or not the Brewers can compete with three fifths of the rotation guaranteed to be league average or slightly worse and two fifths with high upside, but with very little experience. With the Cubs set to roll our four or five better than league average starters and the Cardinals set throw a set of five starters that either match or surpass the Brewers, going back to the playoffs will be tough.  Even the Reds have a better rotation, from top to bottom. The lone saving grace for the Brewers’ rotation may be that they didn’t spend money this off season. Perhaps, they will be in the position to add a starter when teams are looking to dump money during the season.

Best Case Scenario

In order for the best case scenario to happen, the Brewers will need Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder to combine for 90-100 homeruns and drive in close to 230 runs. Rickie Weeks must stay healthy and become the catalyst for the offense. Yovani Gallardo replaces CC Sabathia and wins 16 games with an ERA around 3.00. The rest of the rotation is league average and Trevor Hoffman saves 40 games. If all of that happens, the Brewers win 90 games and once again take the Wild Card. If the Cubs get a rash of injuries to the rotation, they challenge for the division.

Reality Check

In all likelihood, the Brewers fail to make the playoffs because of their pitching. Asking Gallardo and Parra to lead a rotation with league average starters behind them is too much considering the quality of pitching rich teams in the NL. The offense will progress, but without a bonafide, proven starter, the Brewers will struggle to 85 wins and thus fall short of the playoffs. Of course, this all changes a bit if Gallardo is a Cy Young Award candidate.

Closing Thoughts

2008 was a season that illustrated what was right about baseball. The Brewers, the epitome of a small market team, made moves to get into the playoffs. Unfortunately, the off season showed that they cannot compete financially when looking to keep their superstar talent. The 2009 Brew Crew will be entertaining and will play many high scoring games. Ryan Braun is a serious MVP candidate while Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, and Prince Fielder have potential to improve upon their 2008 season. As with most teams, it comes down to pitching. Because their rotation has two question marks followed by mediocrity, it is too much to overcome this season. Gallardo is a talented pitcher. He likely needs a year to fully develop into the ace he projects to be. Because they play in the same division as the seemingly stacked Chicago Cubs, and the improvement of three teams in the NL East, the “good land” won’t likely have playoff baseball this season.

Comments