Cardinals Poised for Upset over Cubs for Central Crown?

By Gary Armida

It has been widely assumed that the Chicago Cubs are going to cruise to a repeat division title and make amends for their quick playoff exit in 2008. Many will point to the acquisition of Milton Bradley as the last remaining piece to a Cubs’ run to end their supposed curse. Sure, the Brewers are likely to take a couple of steps backwards in 2009 because of the losses of CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets. The Astros can crow all they want about a lineup that would’ve looked good five years ago, but they have one real issue: after Roy Oswalt, who is exactly is going to pitch? The Reds are rebuilding and are talented, but are likely a year away from making a legitimate run. The Pirates are, well, the Pirates and will get comfortable in their accustomed place in the basement. The Cubs are undoubtedly a talented team, but they are the proverbial house of cards. With so many injury risks and little depth, the Cubs are far from a sure thing. The St. Louis Cardinals have been quietly going about their business in spring training, putting together a team that looks far better than the 86 win team from a season ago. The Cards return a talented team that includes the best hitter in the game, Albert Pujols as well as one of best outfield prospects in Colby Rasmus. On the pitching front, the rotation returns with the surprising Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer at the backend and the talented Adam Wainwright at the front. Perhaps the key to the entire season is the healthy return of Chris Carpenter. If Carpenter is healthy (all indications are positive), the Cardinals have enough starting pitching, backed by the tremendous depth of their bullpen, to not only compete with the Cubs, but pull off the upset of 2009 over the heavily favored Cubs. Let’s see how the division rivals stack up for the 2009 season.

The Lineup

The Cubs return six of the eight starters from their 2008 lineup. The big addition is that of Milton Bradley who will be relied upon to be a left-handed hitting presence (he’s a switch hitter). The addition of Bradley was a bit of an overreaction of Cubs’ management to the fact that the Cubs lost in the NLDS to the Dodgers who didn’t use one left handed reliever for the entire series. Last season, the Cubs’ offense was quite impressive. Cubs’ batters hit .278/.354/.443 which ranked them 5^th, 2^nd, and 5^th in Baseball. They were second in Baseball with 855 runs scored and 8^th with 184 homeruns. The addition of Bradley looks to have a minimal impact for two reasons. First, their offense, as seen, was already better than most. Second, and most importantly, Bradley has only played over 125 games twice in his nine year career. His tremendous 2008 season of .321/.436/.563 with a career high 22 homeruns and 77 RBI can be explained by two very simple reasons. He was able to be the designated hitter and he was the designated hitter in one of the top hitter’s ballparks in the game. There’s no doubt he is a talented hitter, but he cannot be counted on to play more than 100 games in the outfield. If (and when) Bradley goes on the disabled list, the Cubs lineup looks very much the same. His replacement would be fourth outfielder Reed Johnson. Johnson posted a .303/.358/.420 season in 333 at bats, but is best as a fourth outfielder. If he has to play every day, the Cubs’ offense is downgraded, especially when they were counting on the switch hitting Bradley to be a force from the left side. The lone addition to the infield is the starting second baseman. Last season, Mark DeRosa manned the position hitting .285/.376/.481 with 21 homeruns and 87 RBI. With DeRosa traded to Cleveland for a package of minor leaguers, second base looks to be a combination of Aaron Miles and Mike Fontenot. Miles, formerly of the Cardinals, was signed to a 2 year, $4.9 million dollar deal after posting a career year in 2008. Miles hit .317/.355/.398 with 4 homeruns and 31 RBI in 408 at bats. The 32 year old switch hitter did post a solid season, but it was the first season with an OBP over .329 of his career and he did have a BABIP of .342, suggesting a bit of luck (his previous career high was .313). Mike Fontenot is a 28 year old left-handed hitter who hit .305/.395/.514 with 9 homeruns in 284 at bats. Fontenot’s career minor league numbers (.291/.365/.437 with 48 homeruns in 2,406 at bats) do not suggest that he is capable of posting a similar season. Perhaps he and Miles form a decent platoon, but it looks as if the Cubs’ offense will regress at second base.

The rest of the lineup is intact with Derek Lee, Ryan Theriot, the underrated Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Kosuke Fukudome, and Geovany Soto. The Cubs can expect similar seasons from Lee, Theroit, Soriano and Ramirez. All four are in the midst of their primes (with Lee and Soriano at the tail end of theirs at 33 years old) and are likely to produce at similar levels. Soriano may produce at a moderately higher rate given that he battled a hamstring injury for most of 2008. Fukudome and Soto are the wild cards for different reasons. Fukudome hit just .257/.359/.379 with 10 homeruns and 58 RBI. He landed in Lou Piniella’s doghouse with his prolonged slumps. This year, he will shift to centerfield where his offensive statistics are a bit more tolerable. Soto was the Rookie of the Year in 2008, but limped to the finish with a .241/.313/.446 September. He will need to be better managed in 2009, but the Cubs do not have a real true backup catcher capable of playing more than 20 games.

For the Cardinals, they return five starters from their 2008 team. The 2008 squad hit .281/.350/.433, ranking 2^nd, 4^th, and 7^th. Their 174 homeruns were the 11^th most in Baseball. There is not much to say about Albert Pujols other than he is the best hitter in the game. He does have that troublesome elbow, but he did win the MVP award last season with the same troublesome elbow. Expect more of the same there. Yadier Molina returns behind the plate. Molina has improved his batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage in each of the last two seasons. He may not hit .300 again or hit more than 10 homeruns, but he has evolved into a dependable backstop with modest offensive production. He certainly doesn’t hurt the lineup as some catchers do. The middle infield is revamped after receiving below average production last season. Second base is now occupied by Skip Shumaker, who was the starting left fielder last season. Shumaker replaces the combination of Adam Kennedy and Aaron Miles. While his defense will be shaky, one can expect Shumaker to produce at a similar level in 2009 (.290/.350/.406) which is quite an upgrade from Kennedy’s 2008 line of .280/.321/.372. Shortstop will now be manned by Khalil Greene, the Padres’ castoff. Greene is not someone who gets on base frequently (career OBP of .304), but he does have power. In 2007, his only healthy season, he hit 27 homeruns in 153 games. The problem with Greene is his ability to play for a full season. In his six seasons, he has only played more than 138 games twice. Although Greene is a low OBP player, his production will be a tremendous upgrade over 2008 shortstop Cesar Izturis who hit .263/.319/.309 with 1 homerun. Third base will be manned by one of three players as the Cardinals have lost Troy Glaus for the foreseeable future after the veteran surprised the Cardinals by electing to have shoulder surgery in January. He is expected to miss the first 4-6 weeks of the season. Joe Mather, David Freese, or Brian Bardon will fill in. Whoever wins the job, the Cardinals do lose at least six weeks of offense from Glaus who hit 27 homeruns in a down season. Look for Freese to win the temporary job. Freese did hit .306/.361/.550 with 26 homeruns in triple-A last season as a 25 year old. In the best case scenario, he can replicate Glaus’ power for the short term.

The outfield returns Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick in center field and right field. Ankiel battled injuries in 2008, but managed to hit .264/.337/.506 with 25 homeruns and 71 RBI. The challenge for Ankiel will be to stay healthy and continue to evolve as a hitter. He must show improved patience (just 41 walks) and hit southpaws better in order to avoid being a platoon player. Ludwick busted out for a career season in 2008 with a .299/.375/.591 batting line with 37 homeruns and 113 RBI. The 30 year old will be counted on to produce a similar season in 2009. He likely won’t reach his 2008 statistics, but he is capable of .280/.350/.500 with 25-30 homeruns. At best, he matches his magical season. Left field could go to rookie phenom Colby Rasmus. The 22 year old left- handed hitter struggled in triple-A last season, but is capable of being a 20-20 player at the Major League level. If he wins the job, he will likely hit ninth in the order as Tony LaRussa likes the idea of having a hitter (as opposed to the pitcher) in the ninth spot in order to generate runners for the top of the order. A reasonable projection for Rasmus would be .250/.330/.425 with 15 homeruns and 15 stolen bases. If Rasmus doesn’t win the job, Chris Duncan could get the majority of the at bats in left field. If Duncan isn’t a starter, expect him to get 350-400 at bats as the fourth outfielder and chip in with 15 to 20 homeruns.

Advantage: Cardinals- If one compares the 2008 statistics, one realizes that the two offenses produced similar results. For the Cubs, there is limited upside on their offense. The Cardinals have the potential for increases with the addition of Khalil Greene and possibly Colby Rasmus. The two additions are not all-stars, but they represent upgrades. In addition, the Cardinals’ lineup is balanced and is not susceptible to right-handers or left-handers. With a bit more balance in the order and less injury risk, the Cardinals have a slightly better offense.

The Rotation

On paper, the Cubs have the best rotation in the National League. Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Rich Harden, and Sean Marshall represent a rotation capable of leading the league in strikeouts (they finished 4^th in Baseball in 2008). The 28 year old Zambrano is best described as enigmatic as he can dominate one game while walking the ballpark the next game. Additionally, he has had a few nagging arm injuries during the past couple of seasons. Given that he is averse to physical conditioning, he is a red flag in the rotation. If healthy, he will throw 200 innings, strikeout 180 and win 16 games. He may never put a complete season together, but the possibility of domination exists. Ryan Dempster certainly had a tremendous 2008 which led to a 4 year, $52 million dollar contract. The issue with Dempster is quite simple. After coming to the Major Leagues as a promising young starter in 1998, he had a period of three seasons (2000-2002) where he pitched over 200 innings. But, he only had an ERA under 4.94 in one of those seasons. After 2002, Dempster had a run of injuries and then became a reliever in 2004 as a way to salvage his career. He returned to the rotation last season and had a phenomenal season (17-6, 2.96 ERA in 206.2 innings with 187 strikeouts). The question becomes: Is Dempster capable of posting two consecutive above average seasons as a starter having not accomplished such a feat in his 11 year career? The Cubs bet $52 million on that happening, but the numbers show otherwise. Ted Lilly has done nothing but win at least 15 games and post slightly above league average seasons in the past three years. One could expect a similar season from the 33 year old southpaw. Of everyone in the Cubs rotation, Lilly is the most predictable as he does not have the injury history or the upside.

Rich Harden is truly the key to the Cubs’ World Series chances. At his best, he is one of the top five best starting pitchers in the game. The problem is that he has never pitched more than 189 innings in his career and his 25 starts in 2008 were his highest since 2004. Sean Marshall was announced as the fifth starter. The 26 year old southpaw has a minor league track record as a strikeout pitcher, averaging 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings. That hasn’t translated to the big leagues in his 50 Major League starts as he has averaged 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. At best, Marshall projects to be a league average pitcher (or slightly above league average). As far as 5^th starters go, Marshall could be one of the better ones in the National League.

The Cardinals have a slightly more reliable albeit far less talented staff. The one difference maker is Chris Carpenter. The 34 year old has only made four starts over the past two seasons, but he is said to be fully healthy and throwing well. In fact, Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus told FCP that last week, “He came back from a shoulder injury when most didn’t, so focusing on the elbow, as above, it’s reasonable to think he not only should be back, but that he should have already been back. The downside is that the way he had the surgery left him open to this possibility. But really, it’s seeing him throw that’s making me positive.”

If Carpenter is indeed back to his 2004-2006 form, the Cardinals suddenly have the best pitcher in the division. Behind Carpenter is the talented Adam Wainwright. Wainwright made just 20 starts last season, but was 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings average. If healthy, Wainwright is capable of leading a rotation. If Carpenter is healthy, Wainwright moves to the second slot, giving the Cardinals an advantage against most teams. The rest of the rotation is typical Cardinals in that they are a bunch of castoffs that work with Dave Duncan and suddenly find themselves. Kyle Lohse, Todd Wellemeyer, and Joel Pineiro figure to round out the rotation. Lohse, at 29 years old, posted a career year by winning 15 games with a 3.78 ERA in 200 innings. Wellemeyer won 13 games with a 3.91 ERA in 191.1 innings. Joel Piniero may start the season as the fifth starter, but one could look for Mitchell Boggs to return from the minors and claim the spot, a late free agent signing or a trade. One can’t reasonably expect Lohse and Wellemeyer to duplicate their 2008 seasons, but if they can be just slightly above league average, the Cardinals will be competitive.

Advantage: Cubs- On paper, the Cubs have a superior rotation. However, Zambrano and Harden are significant injury risks. If one or both are lost to injury, the Cubs will obviously struggle (all teams would). The Cardinals are relying on the magic of Dave Duncan to morph a pitiful backend of the rotation into a solid, Major League staff. Let’s just say he has the track record. Because the Cubs strikeout far more hitters that the Cardinals’ starters do (786 to 586 in 2008), the Cubs can end potential rallies quickly and have the more playoff-ready staff.

Bullpen

As stated many times on FCP, projecting a bullpen is quite difficult given the instability of reliever performance from year to year. The Cubs have more well known names while the Cardinals will be led by a trio of pitchers with just one year of Major League experience. The only fact in either bullpen is that Carlos Marmol is the best reliever. Marmol was dominant once again in 2008. He pitched 87.1 innings and struck out 114 batters with a 2.68 ERA. Marmol will continue in the setup role in front of new addition Kevin Gregg after the Spring Training competition. Gregg saved 61 games for the Marlins over the past two seasons, but is coming off of a season where he blew 9 saves and lost the closer role during the final month of the season. The move is wise as Marmol is a much more efficient, dominant, and durable reliever. The outs he gets in the 7^th and 8^th inning will prove to be more valuable than his work as a one inning closer. Lou Piniella doesn’t strike many as a manager who does things unconventionally, but he does go against current Baseball thinking by having his best reliever in a setup role. It is a wise, surprising decision. The remainder of the Cubs’ bullpen has potential, but comes with many question marks. Aaron Heilman was an effective reliever for the Mets until last season. Can he rebound? Chad Gaudin has plus-stuff, but can he duplicate his success in Oakland? Can Luis Vizcaino pitch important innings? Will Jeff Samardzija help the bullpen or become a starter? The questions are many, but if all goes according to plan, the Cubs have a good bullpen.

The Cardinals are inexperienced in key areas. As of this writing, Jason Motte looks to be the favorite for the closer role. Motte, 27 years old, threw 11 dominant Major League innings last season as he struck out 16 batters and gave up just 5 hits. Motte’s minor league statistics illustrate a similar performance as he averaged 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings during his three minor league seasons. Motte should pair with Chris Perez as the final two in the Cardinals’ bullpen. Perez, 23 years old, struck out 42 hitters in 41.2 innings of work out of the Cardinals’ bullpen last season. Along with 25 year old Kyle McClellan (7 K/9 in 75.2 Major League innings), the backend of the bullpen is potentially dominant. With veteran southpaws Trevor Miller and Dennys Reyes, the Cardinals have, potentially, a much improved, more well-rounded bullpen.

Advantage: Push- Both teams seem to have a deep bullpen. The Cubs boast the most dominant reliever, while the Cardinals have a group with infinitely more upside. It is possible that if the Cubs give Marmol the closer role, they take a step backwards as he was so dominant in the seventh and eighth innings. He is that valuable. If the Cardinals are correct about their young pitchers, they have the better group of relievers. There is more upside with the Saint Louis group.

And the winner is…

In a tight race, the Cardinals will edge the Cubs by a game. The simple reason is that the Cardinals have less injury risks to key players and more potential for an increase in production. The Cubs are a good team who may very well put it all together. But, many things have to go right for them. Milton Bradley has to play at least 130 games in the outfield. Rich Harden has to make 25 starts. Ryan Dempster has to pitch like he did in 2008, not like he did in previous years as a starter. Carlos Zambrano cannot break down even if there are warning signs. The Cubs are most likely downgrading their offensive output at second base and may get below average production in centerfield and from the underbelly of their bullpen.

The Cardinals, meanwhile, are the less flashy, but seemingly more dependable team. With an offense almost as a good as the Cubs and a more dependable pitching staff (from top to bottom), they seem poised to return to the playoff hunt. Chris Carpenter has a lot to do with just how serious that return can be. All signs are pointing towards Carpenter returning as a top of the rotation starter. Both Adam Wainwright and he can matchup with any top two in Baseball. The bullpen has potential and does not have the wear and tear that the Cubs’ bullpen has.

In a race as close as this, one could look towards the managers. While managers rarely make a discernable impact, Lou Piniella and Tony LaRussa are two managers who often get a lot of credit for the success of their teams. A look at the last five seasons shows that LaRussa has been able to get more from his mediocre teams than Piniella was able to with the Rays. The Cubs are a talented team with few holes. LaRussa is the master at patching such holes (like he will have to with third base and the fifth starter) which gives the Cardinals an advantage. If the Cubs are beset with injuries, it will highlight a weakness in Piniella’s managing as he has not shown the ability to mix and match players in recent years. LaRussa not only mixes and matches, but manages to get quality production from role and replacement players.

Closing Thoughts

Popular belief may be correct about the Cubs running away with the division. If everyone stays healthy, they will run away with the division as they are clearly the most talented team. However, there are far too many injury risks on this team. The Cardinals, with Tony LaRussa getting the best out of them, will hang with the Cubs all season. If their bullpen matures, they will win the division with a less talented, but more reliable team.

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