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Dodgers Can Survive

 

Much has been made of the impact of Manny Ramirez’s suspension for 50 games (don’t worry; it’s not a steroids article). Most, when discussing the Dodgers, believe that Ramirez has sabotaged their season as he was the centerpiece of their offense. Many will point the fact that the Dodgers weren’t even a .500 team before the sideshow came to Los Angeles last season. Sure, Ramirez leads the team in homeruns, batting average, slugging percentage and on base percentage. But, the season will not be lost for the Dodgers for a few reasons. The most important reason is that Ramirez will be back in “just” 47 more games. He is not lost for the season. The team can play with a sort of confidence that offensive help is, indeed, on the way. But, the Dodgers will survive without Ramirez. This is not a case that the team will be better; it will not be better as teams don’t lose players with a batting line of .348/.492/.641 and get better. But, they can survive for a number of reasons.

Reason One: The Offense

Going from Ramirez to Juan Pierre cannot be discussed as an upgrade, no matter how well Pierre plays. The addition (or re-addition) of Pierre will give the Dodgers more speed at the bottom of the lineup. Joe Torre has taken to bat Pierre ninth which gives the Dodgers a nice speed combination of Pierre and Rafael Furcal. Although Pierre is at least a .400 point OPS drop from Ramirez, the Dodgers do have enough offensive talent to survive for the next two months. First, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp are two undervalued hitters. Ethier did clearly benefit from Ramirez’s presence, but he does the have ability to lead a team. Thus far, Ethier is hitting .285/.399/.488 with 6 homeruns and a team leading 27 RBI. Kemp, who becomes a key hitter, is off to a .275/.343/.483 with 4 homeruns and 23 RBI. Both hitters will need to continue their current level of production. Unlike last season, however, the Dodgers have a healthy Rafael Furcal and newly acquired second baseman Orlando Hudson to get on base for the middle of the lineup. Last season, Furcal was injured for most of the year while the Dodgers received a poor season from Jeff Kent and company at second base. Now, the Dodgers have two hitters with a history of getting on base, even if Furcal is off to a slow start. With James Loney, Casey Blake, and Russell Martin, the Dodgers have a solid lineup capable of scoring runs without Ramirez. Thus far, the Dodgers lead the National League in runs scored, hits, doubles, stolen bases, walks, batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage.

The loss of Ramirez does hurt the Dodgers, but, unlike a year ago, they have the depth to survive, quality hitters who are a more mature, and the addition of new personnel like Orlando Hudson.

Reason Two: The Pitching Staff

The Giants may have more names, the Diamondbacks may have the top two starters, but the Dodgers seem to have enough depth on the pitching staff. Chad Billingsley has a 4-2 record with a 2.45 ERA with 47 strikeouts in 47.2 innings. Randy Wolf is off to a great start with his 2.95 ERA with 36 strikeouts in 42.2 innings. Clayton Kershaw is inconsistent, but capable of dominating games. Eric Stultz and Jeff Weaver have been pleasant surprises so far. Obviously, the backend of the rotation is a concern, but given the paucity of NL West offense, the Dodgers do have enough arms to compete. With a deep bullpen led by closer Jonathan Broxton, Joe Torre seems to have enough options to piece together games when their rotation when their starters don’t work late into the game.

The point is that the Dodgers do have enough pitching to win games. They may not play .600 baseball while Ramirez is out, but they are capable of playing .550 baseball if they continue to pitch at the current level.

Reason Three: The Manager and Flexibility

Perhaps the biggest strength of Joe Torre is his calmness under extreme situations. When a team loses their best hitter to steroids, that would qualify as extreme. During his tenure in the Bronx, Torre would always get his team through these times. He lost Derek Jeter the first game of the season a few years ago; he’s dealt with Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, and other controversial characters/stories. Because he has such a young team, his presence is magnified.

Practically, the Dodgers do save close the eight million dollars. Now, they do have some sort of flexibility to add a player without going over their budget. In today’s economic climate, that is quite valuable. Now, Ned Colletti can sit back, survey the trade market and add a player. That backend of the rotation may have a solution afterall.

Reason Four: The Division

Most importantly, the Dodgers play in perhaps the worst division in Baseball. The Giants have a great pitching staff, but a little league offense. The Diamondbacks are in disarray and lack a bit of everything; they may have a run in them, but they ultimately fail to lineup against the Dodgers even without Ramirez. The Padres and Rockies are just poor, flawed teams that won’t finish .500. Just how bad is the division? Well, the Dodgers have a run differential of +57. The Rockies are the only other team in the division with a positive run differential (+3). Even if the Dodgers somehow manage to just play .500 ball (or even slightly worse), their 4.5 game lead over the Giants figures to stand strong.

Closing Thoughts

The Dodgers aren’t a better team, but they do have the necessary elements to get through the next 46 games. Losing the best hitter in the lineup is tough for any team. They will struggle to score runs at times, much like they did last season. But, with better depth, more roster/budget flexibility, a manager who has a knack of getting his team through these situations, and a poor division, they still have enough to qualify for the postseason. Now, it won’t be as easy as looked during the first month of the season.

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