Yankees Have the Right Idea with Joba
Just how much evidence does one need? Here’s just a tiny sample of the evidence—Francisco Liriano, Anibal Sanchez, Fausto Carmona, Dustin McGowan (any young Toronto pitcher for that matter), Jeff Francis, Jered Weaver, Jeremy Bonderman and so far this season-Cole Hamels (literally, this list could go on and on). These talented, young pitchers all have one thing in common. They were all pushed to throw more than 30 additional innings from one season to the next. All of them either had major surgery or, as in the case of Hamels and Weaver, had nagging injuries which resulted in a severe performance decrease the following season. When Brian Cashman, the General Manager of the New York Yankees, announced that his prized 23 year old starter Joba Chamberlain would have some of his starts skipped in order to limit his innings, the general consensus was that the Yankees are being too careful with Chamberlain, hurting his development, and that they are hurting their chances of making the playoffs. While the latter does have some sort of truth in it, the former could not be more wrong. The Yankees are doing the proper thing by protecting their future ace. In fact, despite popular belief, Cashman has properly prepared the Yankees for this plan.
A Matter of Conditioning
According to ASMI (American Sports and Medicine Institute), two of the leading causes of arm injuries are fatigue and improper conditioning. Quite simply, pitchers are not conditioned to throw so many extra innings from one season to the next. Perhaps the Texas Rangers are indeed onto something as they are conditioning their pitchers to throw deeper into games without worrying about pitch counts or innings restrictions. There are two problems with their methodology. First, there is zero scientific evidence to prove their method will work. Yes, the good old days of Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver, Bob Gibson, and Sandy Koufax “prove” that pitchers can handle a heavy workload. Well, the problem with this thinking is Koufax was retired by the age of 30 because of injury and Ryan has proved to be somewhat of a genetic freak as he pitched until he was 46 years without a depreciable loss of velocity.
The second problem, and perhaps the more important problem, is that their pitchers are likely lacking the proper conditioning to handle this workload. One offseason conditioning program shouldn’t be enough for pitchers to throw 50 additional innings. 26 year old Scott Feldman is on pace to throw between 40 and 50 innings more than his 2007 total. 22 year old Tommy Hunter has been pushed through the Rangers’ system in the past two seasons. He threw more than 130 additional innings in 2008 than he did in 2007. He’s being pushed in 2009 too as the Rangers are surprising contenders for the American League Wild Card. What will be the impact? Likely, it will not be seen until 2010 as most pitchers usually are able to complete their “severe innings jump” season.
Fausto Carmona is an example of a pitcher pushed too far. In 2007, Carmona threw 230 innings (including the postseason) which was more than 100 additional innings from 2006. Since 2007, Carmona has posted ERA’s of 5.44, 6.66 (this season) and WHIP’s of 1.624 and 1.772. This was after his 3.06 ERA and 1.209 WHIP of 2007. Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels experienced the same drop off in production after throwing more than 50 additional innings in 2006. Weaver’s ERA climbed from 2.56 in 2006 to 3.91 in ‘07 and to 4.33 in ’08 with a disabled list stint thrown in for good measure. His 2009 season is remarkably better, but he even experienced shoulder trouble during spring training.
Perhaps the prime example of a pitcher being pushed too hard is Francisco Liriano. The Twins’ southpaw burst onto the scene in 2006 after throwing more than 40 additional innings in 2005. After a brilliant 16 starts, Liriano had surgery and is still searching for his dominant form of 2006. There are so many examples of teams just ignoring innings and getting burned. The Toronto Blue Jays have seen Dustin McGowan, Gustavo Chacin, Shawn Marcum, and Jesse Litsch all lose time to injury. They were all pushed through the organization at some point.
Perhaps someone will devise a proper training plan to condition a pitcher to throw more innings from one season to the next. Perhaps someone will prove ASMI wrong and find evidence to support that injuries do not correlate to innings totals. Until then, it is important to show caution.
A Matter of When?
Extreme innings increases are not the only cause of potential injury. It may also have to do with when those innings are accumulated. A phenomenon that is starting to gain attention is pitchers who throw deep into the playoffs for the first time in their careers. It is a newer study, but the beginning data is starting to show a trend. Pitchers (and teams for that matter) who get to the World Series seem to have difficulty the following season. The chart below illustrates some pitchers who saw performance decrease the season after getting to the World Series.
| Pitcher | WS INN | Next YR INN | WS WHIP | Next YR WHIP |
| John Lackey | 232.2 | 204 | 1.348 | 1.417 |
| Kurt Rueter | 226.2 | 147 | 1.267 | 1.476 |
| Josh Beckett (FLA) | 192.1 | 156.2 | 1.324 | 1.219 |
| Curt Schilling (Bos) | 249.1 | 93.1 | 1.063 | 1.532 |
| Mark Buehrle | 260 | 204 | 1.183 | 1.446 |
| Chris Carpenter | 254 | 6 | 1.068 | 1.667 |
| Jeremy Bonderman | 234.1 | 174.1 | 1.299 | 1.382 |
| Josh Beckett (Bos) | 230.2 | 174.1 | 1.141 | 1.187 |
| Jeff Francis | 232 | 143.2 | 1.379 | 1.483 |
Most of the pitchers on this list found themselves on the disabled list at some point following their World Series appearance. In the cases of Chris Carpenter and Curt Schilling, both lost most of their respective seasons after being post season heroes just months before. Jeremy Bonderman and Jeff Francis are still searching for health. Cole Hamels, the 2008 Playoff hero, is seemingly battling these effects. His ERA has jumped more than 1.50 while allowing more than 3 hits per nine innings than last season.
Once again, the sample size is small; however, there are strong indicators that pitching until November does seem to impact the recovery process. The offseason is a time for pitchers to rest and then strengthen their arm and shoulder for another rigorous season. With the additional post season innings and the later rest, that process is shortened. This is worth studying as teams will need to prepare themselves better.
Being Careful with Joba
Many will opine that the Yankees are babying Chamberlain. The argument could, in fact, be made that the Yankees haven’t been careful enough. Last year’s plan of starting Chamberlain in the bullpen and then stretching him out on the Major League level put the right hander at a great risk for injury (he did, indeed, miss some time). While the Yankees wanted to limit his innings, the idea of opening the season in the bullpen did not allow Chamberlain to condition himself for more than an inning or two at a time. Once he was thrust back into the rotation, he had to build up stamina during a season (which never works) while getting Major League hitters out. It had disaster written all over it and the Yankees were lucky that he did not suffer a major injury. Perhaps they learned from this experience as Phil Hughes, another starter turned valuable reliever, will not return to the rotation this season. It is the right decision.
Chamberlain has already thrown 126.2 innings this season. Last season, he threw 100.1 innings. He is already nearing the vaunted 30 inning increase that many hold as the maximum allowable increase. If Chamberlain was permitted to make 10 more starts, he would project to throw approximately 170 or 180 innings. With the Yankees likely to make the playoffs, Chamberlain could surpass 100 additional innings. If the Yankees were to let that happen, they would be just as negligent as the Blue Jays. His additional innings is a result of their poor plan of 2008, but that shouldn’t change their caution this season. This season, the Yankees are getting it right even if it is quite challenging.
The Challenge
With the Yankees in first place with a somewhat comfortable lead, the decision to skip some starts is a bit easier. If they were chasing the Red Sox or led by just a game, Cashman’s resolve would’ve been tested. But, with a playoff berth likely, the Yankees can afford to have a Chad Gaudin (an excellent, underrated pickup who was once a victim of throwing too many innings) make a couple of starts for the rest of the season. Yes, he may have seven or eight days between starts. While some will say that his routine is disrupted, that disruption is well worth the protection. With six off days during the rest of the season, the Yankees may be able to even skip him through once or twice.
That lead is what makes this plan even easier to implement. It allows the Yankees to keep Chamberlain in the rotation (which is the correct and only choice) while keeping control over his innings. The benefit even extends into September. If the Red Sox decide to make it a race again (they will), Chamberlain will have the ability to pitch in important games. Limiting innings and skipping starts in August will allow for a fully capable Chamberlain in September. Where would you want Chamberlain on the mound- a game in August with a six game lead or a late September game with a one or two game lead? Even more importantly, who would you want to be on the hill during game three of the ALDS?
The challenge is to resist putting Chamberlain out there, especially after getting a glimpse of his potential dominance during his three starts after the All-Star break. However, that challenge not only increases the 2009 Yankees’ chances at a title, but the 2010, 2011, and 2012 Yankees’ chances as well.
Preparation
After mishandling this situation last season, Cashman and the Yankees were well prepared this season. Last season, Cashman was depending upon Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes to provide stability to the rotation while Chamberlain bided his time in the bullpen. Obviously, it was a failure, but the plan was flawed too. Kennedy and Hughes had innings restrictions too so the challenge of limiting all three pitchers’ innings was too daunting. The 2009 Yankees are infinitely better prepared as Cashman signed innings eater and ace CC Sabathia and a number 1-B starter in AJ Burnett. With the top two projected to throw 400-plus combined innings and Andy Pettitte typically in the 190-200 inning range, the Yankees have innings eating starters to keep the bullpen rested. Now with the bullpen better rested, the fourth and fifth starters do not have to go seven innings a night. Having Sergio Mitre and Chad Gaudin making starts doesn’t hurt as much because of the strength of the top three. If Chien-Ming Wang had been able to stay healthy, the rotation’s fifth spot would be even less important.
Should the Yankees try to add another starter? Sure, but they don’t need to as their rotation is performing as well as any other. If they can pick and choose Chamberlain’s spots, their current rotation is a playoff caliber group. Having Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte as the top three take the pressure off of running Chamberlain out there every fifth day for the next month or so.
Additionally, the bullpen is another safeguard as Cashman and Manager Joe Girardi have crafted a flexible bullpen on the fly this season. Alfredo Aceves, Phil Hughes, and Chad Gaudin represent pitchers who can give some length out of the pen. Phil Coke can give more than one inning too. In other words, the Yankees can afford some shorter outings out of the fourth and fifth spot as it will not completely drain the bullpen.
Still Questions
Even with the plan in place, there are still questions about the 2009’s impact on Chamberlain’s career. First, he is going to go over that 30 innings increase threshold. Secondly, he will likely be the third starter in the playoffs. As illustrated, pitchers who pitch deep into the playoffs often have either a performance decrease or injury troubles. The plan looks to keep him strong and better prepared for those (hopefully) 25 or so additional playoff innings. The question becomes whether or not their 2008 blunder will exacerbate any problems that result from this season’s increase.
Closing Thoughts
The idea that the Yankees are babying Joba Chamberlain is ludicrous. With the current state of pitching development, there is little choice but to be careful and limit his innings. If the organization has any aspirations to win in the next five seasons (they do), the Yankees will need a healthy, productive Chamberlain. If they want to win the 2009 series, they need a healthy, productive Chamberlain. Because he is now pitching in unchartered territories, limiting innings now in exchange for full starts in October is the only thing to do. Until a conditioning program is developed to push pitchers, caution must be exercised. Additionally, Chamberlain has already shown a propensity for arm injury, suffering one in the Minor Leagues as well as last season. He’s not the one to be pushed right now.
Yes, starters of yesteryear would throw 300 innings and worked in a four man rotation. Yes, Bob Gibson would never have his starts skipped. But, for every Bob Gibson or Tom Seaver, there is a Sandy Koufax or even a Mark Fidrych. There will always be the pitchers who can seemingly throw forever. But, there are more stories of talented young pitchers whose careers get derailed or ruined because of injury. The Yankees do not want Chamberlain to join the latter group. So, while fans continue to long for “old school” pitchers, the Yankees will protect their 23 year old potential ace. Seems like the right thing to do, doesn’t it?
Comments
Trackbacks