Rangers’ Success Has Little to Do With “New” Pitching Mindset
Much has been made of the Texas Rangers’ handling of pitch counts and innings limits this season. At the onset of Spring Training, Nolan Ryan, the legendary Hall of Fame pitcher and now President of the Texas Rangers, instituted the mindset that the Rangers would no longer be a slave to pitch counts and innings limits. In fact, the Rangers stated that they want their pitchers to go deeper into game regardless of the pitch count. With the Rangers still on the fringe of a pennant race (and fading fast), one can imagine that in the copycat environment that is professional sports, other teams will begin to institute and develop such practices. However, a closer look at the 2009 Texas Rangers starting pitchers shows a few interesting things. First, their pitchers are not going deeper into games. Secondly, and most importantly, they are being careful with their young pitching prospects. While many rushed to believe that the Rangers were challenging the current state of pitching development, it seems that they were only, at least for this season, challenging the organization mindset. That mindset isn’t the explanation for their tremendous season.
Innings, What Innings?
When looking at the rotation, one can see that the Rangers are receiving a stellar season from Scott Feldman, good seasons from Kevin Millwood and Tommy Hunter, league average seasons from Brandon McCarthy and Dustin Nippert, and a poor season from Derek Holland. Matt Harrison was lost to a rib injury and the Rangers cut ties with Vicente Padilla for reasons other than pitching performance. Early in the season, the Rangers were the talk of baseball as they led the American League West by 5.5 games on May 30th. The bullpen exclaimed that they were rested with their starters going seven innings or so a night. It seems that the “or so” was bit more common than going seven innings or more. Possibly, the vaunted, sometimes overrated, Texas heat has stopped the Rangers’ rotation from their goal. Despite common belief to the contrary, the Rangers rotation averages a little more than 5.2 innings per start. That ranks them a middling 16th in Baseball with such teams like the Royals, Mariners, Cubs, and Reds getting more innings from their starters. In all fairness, however, the Rangers did make a tremendous leap from 2008 as their rotation ranked last in terms of innings per start. It’s an improvement for sure, but the fact remains that the Rangers aren’t just pushing pitchers simply to push their pitchers.
The last statement even extends to their prospects. Maybe the Rangers have instituted a conditioning program that will eventually yield the results they are looking for; however, it is not happening now. Their prized prospect, Neftali Feliz is just 20 years old. The Rangers shifted him to the bullpen with a Texas version of the famed “Joba Rules”. If the Rangers weren’t concerned with innings, Feliz, the lone starter capable of posting elite level strikeout ratios, would be in the rotation. Hey, Nolan Ryan was, right? (Actually, he wasn’t. Because of his wildness, he didn’t pitch over 150 Major League innings in a season until he was 25 years old, five seasons into his professional career). No minor league pitcher in the Texas farm system has thrown more than 130 innings. In other words, the Rangers are protecting their arms, just like any other organization. Limits are wisely in place. Again, perhaps they are changing the system’s mindset and attitude towards innings while building a proper conditioning program to fully execute their idea. Whatever the reason, they simply aren’t getting the improvement from increased innings.
Pitch Counts
As a whole, the Rangers rotation is averaging 97 pitches per start, which ranks tenth most in the Majors. First, 97 pitches per start is not a high number. In fact, the bottom team, the Washington Nationals average 91 pitches per start. But, considering the Rangers don’t even get six innings per start, 97 pitches are somewhat significant. While the number seems a bit low for an organization whose mission was to disregard the number, the Rangers may have accomplished something anyway.
100 Pitches
|
Name |
100 Pitch Starts 1st Half |
100 Pitch Starts 2nd Half |
120 Pitch Starts Season |
Pitches Per Start |
| Kevin Millwood | 15 of 18 starts | 8 of 10 | 1 | 105.6 |
| Scott Feldman | 7 of 14 starts | 10 of 12 | 1 | 99.07 |
| Derek Holland | 0 of 7 starts | 1 of 11 | 0 | 90.05 |
| Dustin Nippert | 0 1st half starts | 1 of 9 | 0 | 90.2 |
| Brandon McCarthy | 4 of 10 starts | 0 of 3 | 1 | 95.9 |
| Tommy Hunter | 0 of 3 starts | 6 of 12 | 0 | 94.4 |
The accomplishment is really hanging in the pennant race despite a pitching staff a lackluster pitching staff void of any type of strikeout ability. Mike Maddux, the Rangers Pitching Coach, has coaxed a limited rotation that doesn’t pitch as deep into games as advertised into a playoff contender. With just Kevin Millwood, Scott Feldman, and lately, Tommy Hunter throwing 100 pitches, the Rangers have used their bullpen a bit more. Because they saved some bullpen innings during the first half, their bullpen is a bit fresher compared to the amount of innings thrown in previous seasons. Only nine other teams have thrown less innings than the Rangers bullpen. Again, it is an improvement from a season ago, but it falls a bit short of tangible results for the moment especially when examining the rotation’s performance.
But, the Rangers’ improvement in the standings cannot be linked to the starters. How can it? The starters aren’t going any deeper into games and, contrary to popular belief, they aren’t performing all that well. Something must be masking their inefficiencies.
Problem Masked
Putting health risks aside, a major problem with the Rangers’ desire to push through pitch restrictions is their talent level. Quite frankly, the rotation isn’t very talented in many areas. First, the rotation ranks 26th in Baseball with just 532 strikeouts. Only the Nationals, Indians, Orioles, and Pirates are worse. They are 16th with a 1.15 groundball to flyball ratio. They are 25th in Baseball with just 10.2 percent of pitches swung and missed when thrown in the strike zone. The statistics suggest a last place team not one still in the hunt for the Wild Card.
How can this be possible? Having an offense that has scored the 8th most runs in Baseball most assuredly helps. But, the Rangers have always had a great offense. One answer may lie in the fact that the Rangers’ rotation has a .290 BABIP (batting average of balls put into play). That average ranks fourth in Baseball behind the Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants. Considering that the league average is around .310, one could conclude that the Rangers have been considerably lucky that the balls put in play have found the fielders unlike the Boston Red Sox whose BABIP is the worst in Baseball at .322. Yes, every so often teams will get those kinds of breaks. But, one of the other Rangers’ goals may be paying off.
Nolan Ryan’s decree of ignoring pitch counts and innings restrictions did garner most headlines. But, if one listened to General Manager Jon Daniels, one would have heard that defense was a priority for the Rangers. Modern defensive analysis is still somewhat on the fringes, but with the success of the Seattle Mariners whose defense and pitching makes up for a lackluster offense, its importance is gaining momentum. Daniels, a General Manager who pays strict attention to modern statistical analysis, evidently saw an opportunity to upgrade the defense. It began with Michael Young moving to third base to clear the way for Elvis Andrus to become the starting shortstop. While Young has had some difficulties adjusting the life at the hot corner (the lone Rangers starter with a negative UZR of -7.3), Andrus has been tremendous at shortstop with an 8.9 UZR. In fact, the Rangers have 13 players with UZR’s in the positive and five players over 5.0. That improvement in defense can help explain the low BABIP.
Evidently, a sound defense can mask pitching inefficiency. In the 2009 Texas Rangers case, it seems to have made the only difference. Yes, Scott Feldman has won 16 games with just 5 losses. However, he strikes out just 5.2 batters per nine innings and gives up 8.1 hits per nine innings. He keeps the ball on the ground as evidenced by his 1.28 groundball to flyball ratio, but his .267 BABIP is quite low. Some may call it a lucky season, but the improved Rangers’ defense could also be the reason. Tommy Hunter fits the same profile as he has a 5.0 K/9 rate while an astounding .232 BABIP. Even Kevin Millwood, a veteran of 13 seasons, has a 2009 BABIP of .279 compared to his lifetime .300 mark and his marks of .310, .340, and .358 during his previous three seasons with the Rangers. With secondary statistics that profile back of the rotation starters, one has to look to the improved defense as a reason for their success.
Closing Thoughts
The Texas Rangers are one of the best stories of the 2009 season. Their improvement in the standings is quite remarkable. They are an organization that has built a tremendous amount of depth in the farm system and who have one of the most exciting pitching prospects in the game in Neftali Feliz. Their bravado and their will to instill a mindset in their pitchers to do more should be applauded. The current state of pitching is not good, so trying to condition pitchers to throw more is a worthwhile experiment, one in which the results won’t be clear for a few years. But, the will to instill this belief is just that—the will. The results have not shown a pitching staff throwing more innings or more pitches. The Rangers’ improvement is not related to that mindset at all. The statistics simply do not back it up.
Perhaps the Rangers are a bit lucky this season, but the defensive improvement is too large to ignore. Nolan Ryan may get the headlines for his bold proclamation, but it is Jon Daniels who should receive the accolades. The Rangers changed because he changed an element of the team, not the mindset of the pitching staff. In fact, it is not a stretch to say that the Rangers’ improvement happened in spite of their rotation.
Comments
By Adam on September 16th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Nice read.
By fjmanuel on September 16th, 2009 at 10:22 am
great article.