After Lackey, Mulder May Be Best Choice
With John Lackey and Rich Harden as the lone prizes of this year’s free agent crop of starting pitchers, many teams will be sifting through the likes of Randy Wolf, Erik Bedard, Brett Myers, Jarrod Washburn, Carl Pavano, Vicente Padilla, Pedro Martinez, and Livan Hernandez. While Wolf and Martinez certainly pitched well in 2009, nobody represents a “sure thing” in 2010. More importantly, nobody represents a pitcher who can take a team from the middle of the pack to being a playoff contender. This season, General Managers will have to take calculated risks on pitchers, trying to restrain themselves from overspending in a shallow marketplace. It was a task they easily accomplished last season, but with even fewer options and more pressure to win, this off-season will be more of a challenge. With that in mind, there is one pitcher who will come at a lower cost with perhaps equal or less risk than the pitchers listed above. Even better, he is a better bet to match the performances of John Lackey and Rich Harden than anyone else on the free agent wire.
Mark Mulder is a 32-year-old free agent left-handed pitcher coming off of a shoulder injury that has essentially cost him the last three seasons. After winning 16 games for the 2005 Cardinals, Mulder has started just 21 games since 2006, compiling a 6-10 record with a 7.73 ERA and a 1.830 WHIP. While those statistics are quite ugly, it gets worse; in 106 innings, he’s allowed 150 hits, 23 homeruns, 44 walks, and 55 strikeouts. But, those statistics were compiled as Mulder tried to pitch through the injury, never allowing himself time for a full recovery. Instead of trying to comeback in 2009, Mulder made two very smart decisions. First, he decided to dedicate himself to fully recovering. He decided against repeated the same mistakes in 2007 and 2008. Yes, he missed an entire year of his career, but he now enters the 2010 season healthy for the first time in years.
Long Road Back
His second decision was to swallow his pride and reach out for a man who could help him regain his delivery while he rehabilitated. After three years of compensating for his shoulder pain, Mulder had essentially lost all of the mechanics that allowed him to record an 88-40 record with a 3.65 ERA and 1.243 WHIP in 155 starts from 2001 through 2005. That doesn’t even count his stellar post-season record during his seven career starts (3-4, 2.34 ERA in 42.1 innings). The southpaw wasn’t the most dominating pitchers of that time period, but he certainly was one of the most effective, averaging 5.9 strikeouts per nine innings, but allowing just 0.8 homeruns per nine innings. To find that form, Mulder called Rick Peterson, his former pitching coach with the Oakland A’s. The call wasn’t easy as out of the famed “Big Three” in Oakland’s early 2000’s rotation (Hudson, Mulder, and Zito), Mulder was the one least attentive to Peterson’s program. Peterson, the former A’s and New York Mets Pitching Coach (and recently hired as the Milwaukee Brewers Pitching coach), happily obliged Mulder’s request.
The two worked throughout the summer putting back together the delivery that made Mark Mulder one of the most successful pitchers of the first half of the decade. In August, Peterson commented on Mulder’s predicament, “With Mark, the process is a bit different. He’s coming off of major surgery and he altered his delivery for so long to compensate for that pain. He is literally going through the process of learning how to pitch all over again.” In other words, in trying to earn his money, Mulder lost his recipe of success in the process. But as the summer went along, the old Mark Mulder, the Oakland A’s Mark Mulder, began to emerge. “There are times when Mark throws a bullpen and he is electric. It’s now a matter of consistency. He’s almost there. When he’s ready, I am confident that he will get back to a high level of performance”, said Peterson of Mulder’s August progress. Rather than hook on with a team at the end of the season, Mulder simply focused on getting stronger for 2010. Now, he sits on the free agent wire with Lackey, Harden, Martinez, and the scores of questionable pitchers waiting for the phone to ring.
Ready to Roll
His phone will definitely ring. After all, many will view him as a low risk, high reward type signing. Few teams, if any at all, will invest with heavy guaranteed money, as most will view him as an injury risk. That view, however, is a bit misguided. Is there risk with Mulder because of his injury history? Absolutely, there is quite a bit of risk. But, the real question is: is there more of a risk signing Mark Mulder to a one year, “make good” contract than there is in signing Rich Harden to a multi-year contract? The answer is no; Mulder is the safer bet given the money required and the fact that he may, indeed, be healthier than the likes of Harden, Martinez, Bedard. Taking a full season off to fully rehabilitate (which entailed a biomechanical analysis and the work with Peterson in addition to the physical therapy) leaves Mulder fully healthy to pitch. Yes, he will have to prove himself, but that is no more risky than Harden having to prove himself after shutting himself down at the end of last season.
The difficult question to answer is what to expect from the 32 year old. It seems unrealistic to assume he can return to being a top of the rotation type pitcher. The shoulder injury and lack of pitching over the past three seasons may have eaten at Mulder’s stuff. But, with a clean bill of health, it is not unrealistic to assume Mulder can make 25-30 starts as a contending team’s third or fourth starter. One could expect, at worst, a league average starter. At best, he becomes a number two-type starter. Considering the investment, a team could obtain the single greatest bargain of the off-season. With such a thin pitching market, Mulder will have plenty of suitors.
Good Fits
A healthy Mark Mulder fits on any team. The question becomes whether or not his shoulder can hold up. Taking a full season off gives it the best chance and allows potential suitors to breathe a little easier when consider the supposed risk. The obvious fit would be in Milwaukee to continue his work with Rick Peterson, who was recently hired as the Brewers’ pitching coach. It would also reunite him with Ken Macha who was a coach and then Manager for the A’s during Mulder’s time. The Brewers are a middle of the rotation away from being a playoff team. After losing CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets last season, the Brewers struggled to find a consistent pitcher behind staff ace, Yovani Gallardo. Mulder could slide into the second or third rotation spot to provide innings and give one of the best offenses in the game a chance to win games. There has already been speculation of talks between the two sides. In the end, it will depend on a few factors. First, Mulder will have to decide how important it is to work with Peterson for a full season. If they cured the delivery flaws during the summer, it lessens the importance. Secondly, will the Brewers be willing to take a chance on Mulder after being scarred by their years with Ben Sheets, another talented pitcher whose career was ravaged by injuries. Lastly, can Mark Mulder get a guaranteed deal elsewhere? If he can, the Brewers are likely to withdraw. In reality, the importance of the presence of Peterson is the real question. Mulder was the one who reached out to Peterson when his comeback was in jeopardy. He may look for Peterson to guide him through one healthy season before being able to score a big, multi-year contract next winter. Placing his bet with Peterson, perhaps the best pitching coach in the game, is a very smart bet.
But, that doesn’t mean other team won’t try. In fact, if money becomes an issue (meaning if teams are willing to give a Major League contract), the Brewers become less of an option. In the American League, the Seattle Mariners, Detroit Tigers, and Minnesota Twins are excellent matches with the Yankees always able to pay top value in order to take a chance. In the National League, most contending teams could take a chance on a potential number two starter. Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, the Chicago Cubs, New York Mets, Atlanta Braves, and San Francisco Giants all have potential rotation openings. All of them will look at Lackey first, but once he signs, Mulder just may be the most cost efficient, high ceiling pitcher on the market.
Likely Scenario
Most likely, the reunion with Peterson and Macha plays out with a one-year contract. Mulder, because of his extensive rehabilitation program, becomes an adequate second starter behind Yovani Gallardo, helping the Brewers compete for a post-season berth. After Mulder’s season, he likely gets a three-year contract next winter. With the poor economy still weighing on teams’ minds, a pitcher like Mark Mulder will be in demand this winter. He won’t command a high salary because he sat out a season and had two injury-riddled seasons prior. But, with a potential for a full comeback likely, he will more than justify that chance.
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