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Don’t Count on the Yankees to Make a Free Agent Splash Again

Those expecting the Yankees to make another big splash in the free agent market this offseason may be in for a surprise. The Yankees are seemingly unable to take on any more substantial contracts based on their projected payroll numbers for the foreseeable future. General Manager Brian Cashman has said on numerous occasions that even the Yankees have a budget, and while that budget has been continually blown up when a top notch free agent has come along, the Yankee philosophy has changed dramatically in the last couple of years.

With the Yankee payroll surpassing the $200 million mark again in 2009, many hypothesize that it will continue to rise as the Yankees need to add pieces to continue their championship quests. But Brian Cashman’s insistence that the Yankees payroll has a limit indicates that there is little room for expensive free agents. Making their pursuit of high priced players more difficult, the Yankees have over $165 million in contracts already committed to just 10 players in 2010.

PLAYER	2010 SALARY (in millions)
Alex Rodriguez	33.0
CC Sabathia	24.28
Derek Jeter	22.6
Mark Teixeira	20.62
A.J. Burnett	16.5
Mariano Rivera	15.0
Jorge Posada	13.1
Robinson Cano	9.0
Nick Swisher	6.85
Damaso Marte	4.0
TOTAL	167.95

With 13 spots on the 25 man roster yet to be filled, the Yankees’ payroll will surely surpass $200 million even if they don’t sign one big ticket free agent. If the Yankees sign Matt Holliday or Jason Bay to fill some of the offensive holes left by the possible departure of Johnny Damon and/or Hideki Matsui, the Yankees will generate a payroll that even they would be embarrassed to have. This would also add to their sizeable amount of monies owed in the years to come. Any long term contract would not pose a problem for just 2010, as they have committed top dollar to numerous players already. All salaries are in millions of dollars.

PLAYER	2011 SALARY	2012 SALARY	2013 SALARY	2014 SALARY
Rodriguez	32.0	30.0	29.0	25.0
Sabathia	24.28	24.28	24.28	24.28
Teixeira	23.12	23.12	23.12	23.12
Burnett	16.5	16.5	16.5	-
Posada	13.1	-	-	-
Cano	10.0	2.0	-	-
Marte	4.0	.25	-	-
TOTAL	123.0 (8 players)	96.15 (7 players)	92.9 (5 players)	72.4 (4 players)

The above numbers do not include the eventual gigantic contract Derek Jeter will receive after his contract expires in 2010, nor does it cover the contract of Mariano Rivera which will come due in 2011. He will apparently pitch effectively until he decides to retire. Assuming Jeter gets a deal worth approximately $20 million per year over four years, and Rivera gets $15 million per year for two, the total payroll now looks like this:

2011	2012	2013	2014
158.0 (10 players)	139.15 (9 players)	112.9 (6 players)	92.4 (5 players)

There is no doubt that the Yankees will not stand pat during this stretch of guaranteed contracts for aging players with declining values. As the contracts wear on, the quality of play will decrease and reinforcements will be brought in to revitalize the Yankees’ offense, as the payroll sets new highs and the uproar begins anew. But the free agent class available in the winter of 2009 and 2010 is full of warts. Despite many poor free agent signings in the recent past, the Yankees payroll will not allow them to spend more to make up for their mistakes. They will have to be more careful in who they sign to long term deals because the will to spend the money may not be there to overcome a Carl Pavano-like contract.

In the early part of this decade, the Yankees philosophy was to sign the best free agents out there, regardless of what they might bring to the team. In the winter of 2004, Cashman signed Jaret Wright and Pavano, at least in part because they were all that was available. Despite all of the warning signs those pitchers were given big deals to pitch for the Yanks and did little to justify the investment. In the last two years Cashman has shown a change in philosophy. He refused to part with a lucrative player package to obtain Johan Santana. He signed three free agents for over $400 million dollars in 2008 but obviously choose the right players as the Yankees won the World Series handily with the additions of Mark Reixeira, A.J. Burtnett, and CC Sabathia. This newfound focus on bringing in talented players, not just the available players, has led to a redefinition of how the Yankees operate. If the Yankees don’t believe that Matt Holliday is worth a contract similar to Teixeira’s (and how could they justify that?), it will not be offered to him. The offensive side of the free agent class over the next two years is extremely unattractive. Unlike the massive contracts given to Pavano and Wrtight in down years of free agency, Cashman will not buckle under pressure fans, upper management, or agents.

Cashman has said that he prefers to sign free agents to trading for players because all free agency costs is money. Trades cost money AND players. But with the thin free agent market Cashman may be forced to deal for players with fairly affordable contracts, or those who are approaching arbitration or free agency. For example, Curtis Granderson of the Tigers is reportedly available. Whether the Yankees and Detroit can make a deal is debatable, but Granderson is the type of player that Cashman would trade for despite his assertion that trades are not preferable. Granderson would bring youth, athleticism, defense, and speed along with an affordable contract for the next few years. Whether it is Granderson or another player like him, it is more likely that the Yanks will trade for reinforcements this year than sign for them.

There is, however, a scenario that could entice Cashman to utilize the free agent market. He and the Yankees hierarchy have made it quite clear that pitching is their first priority. With the inability to find more than three reliable starters in the 2009 postseason, it is more likely that Cashman would spend money on a starter. There are some attractive options out there this year, with John Lackey heading the list. While he might not be ideal, the only free agent signing that makes sense for the Yankees would be to strengthen their rotation. There are affprdable options out there, but few bring the stats, swagger, and heat that Burnett and Sabathia did last year, but with those two at the top and presumably one more year of Andy Pettitte on the horizon, the Yankees don’t necessarily have to get someone like Lackey. They could also explore the trade market for a starter, which begins with Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay, but also may include affordable options such as Detroit’s Edwin Jackson.

The Yankees have been criticized by many for their huge payroll for many, many years, but even with their unlimited resources they may remain spectators as the free agent frenzy begins. Nothing is ever beyond the Yankees, but with the new direction taken by the front office in talent evaluation and an internal belief that there may be a limit to their spending, signing the big name free agent just because they can may not be the mold anymore. If the right player came along, especially if he was a pitcher, the Yanks could move quickly. But with the free agent market looking especially weak, there is not a name deserving of the money spent by the Yankees last offseason.

Thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for the numbers used.

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