Cy Young Winners Put Pressure on Royals and Giants

Now that the Cy Young Award voting has been announced, the methodology, rationale, and, repercussions of said voting can be properly dissected. Many will focus on the idea of leaving Chris Carpenter off the ballot. Some will discuss the seeming shift in voting as the traditional Baseball writers (joined by a few new names) looked past the win column to determine, rather correctly, that Zack Greinke and Tim Lincecum were the best pitchers in Baseball for the 2009 season. The fact that two young pitchers who compiled just 16 and 15 wins respectively were able to come away with a pitcher’s biggest prize does, indeed, show a shift in how pitchers are analyzed. While the above issues are interesting and somewhat important, the real impact is on the respective teams. Suddenly, the Kansas City Royals have a Cy Young Award winner who is under their control for just three more seasons (after wisely locking him up with a four year, $38 million dollar contract). The Giants may have an even bigger problem. Lincecum, a veteran of three seasons (two complete seasons), is now a two-time winner of the Cy Young Award. After making just $650,000 dollars last season, Lincecum is on his way to either a long-term contract or a record-breaking arbitration ruling. Both franchises are obviously happy with their assets, but November 19, 2009 may go down as the day both franchises felt a sudden pressure that will impact their franchises for quite some time.

Pressure on Moore

Dayton Moore has been criticized for almost every move he has made during his tenure as Royals’ General Manager. While much of the criticism was warranted, his move to sign Zack Greinke to a four year $38 million dollar contract after just one complete season back from an anxiety disorder (as a starter) was one made with tremendous foresight. Greinke rewarded Moore with one of the most dominating seasons since Pedro Martinez was in his prime with the Expos and Red Sox. Greinke is set to make $7.25 million in 2010, followed by $13.5 million in 2011 and 2012. Considering his award and his dominance, the 25 year old is at a bargain price, allowing Moore to configure a payroll that has hovered between $47 and $70 million dollars the past four seasons into a pennant winning team. The small market Royals have what is essentially a three-year window to build a playoff team before Greinke hits free agency. The pressure is squarely on Moore to take the Royals from a 65 win team to an 88 win team soon. The problem is that the Royals are so far away from being that team. Despite being a trendy pick last season, most of the obvious flaws came to fruition in 2009 as the Royals finished 13^th in the American League in on base percentage (.318) and homeruns, while finishing 12^th in batting average and slugging percentage. Looking ahead to 2010, only Billy Butler (.301/.362/.492 with 21 homeruns and 93 RBI) gives the Royals any assurance about the offense. David DeJesus is adequate and Alex Gordon could make good on all of that promise now that he is fully recovered from hip surgery. Alberto Callaspo flourished as an everyday player (.300/.356/.457) last season, but the 27 year old will have to prove that it was not a fluke. Aside from the aforementioned names, the Royals have holes at first base, shortstop, catcher, and two outfield spots (depending on where DeJesus plays). With Yunieksy Betancourt set to be the starting shortstop, the Royals will need other positions to compensate for his lack of offensive and defensive production. The Royals do have some interesting minor league options. Their top prospects, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer, are probably a season away from being ready to contribute. But, if Kila Ka’aihue (.260/.383/.446 in 8 minor league seasons) was ever given a chance, he could help with his on base skills. Moore’s acquisition of Josh Fields and Chris Getz from the White Sox in exchange for Mark Teehan is interesting, but Fields and Getz haven’t shown the ability to get on base consistently. They do have upside so perhaps they can develop patience. With little money to spend, the Royals are not looking at the upper tier of free agents, which is quite thin to begin with. The organization will be relying on Moore’s evaluation skills when it comes to signing players. He has not proven that as a strength during his tenure with the Royals. Even worse for the Royals is their lack of pitching depth. Besides Greinke, the Royals can count on Gil Meche (when healthy) and then have to hope that Brian Bannister can mix speeds and hit location and that one day, Luke Hochevar can finally realize his potential. With their better pitching prospects at least a year away, Moore will have to entice a low cost free agent to sign in order to provide depth, experience, and innings. He would certainly have to do better than Sidney Ponson. On the positive side, any bullpen with Joakim Soria and Juan Cruz at the backend is one that has above average base to work with. By 2012, Greinke will likely be pitching his final season in Kansas City unless there is a significant shift in Baseball economics or the Royals decide to invest 30 percent of their payroll into one player. In the interim, Dayton Moore has a chance to maximize Greinke’s value and build a playoff team. Yes, his resources are short, but so are those of his competition—The Indians and Twins. The American League Central winner doesn’t have to win 90 games. With the best pitcher in the division, the Royals do have the ability to compete with wise decision-making. With the Greinke free agency clock now ticking, the future has to become the now for the Royals. It is time to build a winner while their biggest resource is in his prime and, most importantly, still in Royals’ blue. Giants Payroll Impact

There is always the idea of value when discussing a player’s performance. Tim Lincecum has given the San Francisco Giants the ultimate in value during his two full seasons. In those two full seasons, Lincecum is 33-12 with a 2.56 ERA in 65 starts. In 452.1 innings, he’s allowed just 350 hits, 152 walks, 21 homeruns, and has struck out 526 batters along with a stellar 1.110 WHIP. His ERA+ of 173 and his FIP of 2.48 are just two more indications of his brilliance. He’s been rewarded with two Cy Young Awards. He’s done that for mere pennies (by Baseball standards). For his first Cy Young Award season, Lincecum was paid $405,000; he made $650,000 for 2009. That’s right; for just over a million dollars, the San Francisco Giants have received two seasons worth of domination. In an age where Oliver Perez makes $12 million per season, Tim Lincecum is certainly the best bargain today, quite possibly of all-time.

But, all of that is about to change. Lincecum is arbitration eligible this offseason, meaning he is due for a big raise. And, in this case, “big” quite possibly means historic. Ryan Howard, the Philadelphia Phillies’ first baseman holds the record for first-time arbitration awards. In 2008, he received a $10 million dollar arbitration award, which surpassed the $7.4 million dollar award received by Miguel Cabrera. Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon received the highest pitcher contract last offseason when he signed a $6.25 million dollar deal to avoid arbitration. Howard, Cabrera, and Papelbon represent some of the best talent in the game. None have the resume that Lincecum’s brief career has compiled. Yes, Howard had an MVP Award and a Rookie of the Year Award, but Lincecum has been voted, in consecutive seasons, the best pitcher in his league. That’s a nice little note to submit during the hearing.

With a historic arbitration hearing on the horizon, the need to sign Lincecum to a long-term contract is even greater. Maury Brown, President of the Business of Sports, a company that covers the all of the business aspects of professional sports (the bizofbaseball.com covers the business side of Major League Baseball), believes the pressure on the Giants is greater than ever. “The pressure on the Giants to ink Lincecum to a multi-year contract was already high, but winning back-to-back Cy Young awards really will ratchet it up. The Giants could potentially be on the wrong end of a record setting salary arbitration case—the most for a first year salary arbitration eligible pitcher is very possible”, opines Brown. With that type of financial pressure, especially in the current economy, a long-term contract is in the best interest of the Giants.

Of course the risk of injury is always present when discussing a contract for a starting pitcher. It is especially important when discussing Lincecum because of his unorthodox style. Because of his unique delivery, his injury risk is quite unclear. Brown believes that the risk is well worth taking considering the financial alternative. “There is always risk signing pitchers to multi-year deals, but would it surprise me if a Hamels-like deal were offered to Lincecum? No. Unless his agent were to file a ridiculous arbitration figure, the odds of Lincecum winning his case, should it go to salary arbitration hearing would be very high.” That risk makes a deal very likely. However, even with a long-term contract, for less per season than the arbitration award, the financial impact may hurt the 2010 Giants.

Because of the Giants situation and team makeup, the impact of such as large raise is great. First, they figure to add approximately $10-12 million dollars of payroll with Lincecum’s certain raise. For a team that has limited its payroll to $90 million dollars in since 2005 and has actually scaled back in 2008 and 2009, this figure is potentially devastating. There is no question that the Giants have a very good pitching staff. After all, the staff had the second best ERA in the National League, allowed the second fewest hits, and struck out 1,302 batters. The staff was a playoff caliber staff, but the offense was that of a last place team. The Giants offense finished last in the league with a .309 on base percentage while ranking 14^th in slugging percentage. With such a lackluster offense, the Giants are in need of major offense if they wish to compete in the National League West in 2010. With Lincecum’s raise, the funds may not be there.

With offensive holes in the corner outfield spots, first base, and catcher, the Giants are in need of a major trade or getting a couple good offensive players. The problem is that they have shed just $22 million dollars in salary. With Lincecum set to take at least half of that and with Aaron Rowand ($8 million to $12 million), Edgar Renteria ($7 million to $9 million), Jeremy Affeldt ($3 million to $4 million), and Matt Cain $2.65 million to $4.25 million) all due raises, that savings is quickly spent. That doesn’t even account for contract renewals or arbitration cases for players like Pablo Sandoval, Brian Wilson, and Jonathan Sanchez. Unless the Giants are going to raise their payroll significantly (they already have $57 million tied up in six players—Barry Zito, Rowand, Renteria, Freddy Sanchez, Affeldt, and Matt Cain), their ability to add significant offense is severely damaged. Without added offense, the Giants cannot be serious contenders, no matter how well the pitching staff performs. Even if catching prospect Buster Posey proves ready, there are still far too many holes in the offense to upgrade.

Closing Thoughts

Even if both pitchers had not won their respective awards, they would’ve received a good payday. But, the Cy Young Award only makes that payday larger. For the Royals, they must win sooner, before Greinke’s contract expires. For the Giants, the financial repercussions are a bit more complicated. They must decide how much their 2010 payroll will be while factoring in the big raise for Tim Lincecum. Both Lincecum and Greinke are premium pitchers deserving of their awards. However, those awards will likely price them off of their current teams.

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