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Teams Should Wait for Doc

With so many teams searching for pitching, news out of Toronto has probably sent front offices in a general tizzy regarding Roy Halladay. With many Blue Jays’ front office executives candidly speaking about Roy Halladay unwillingness to re-sign with the Blue Jays, a trade may be more likely than ever. One cannot blame Halladay for not wanting to sign with the Blue Jays, a team that has seemingly been stuck in third or fourth place for the last 15 years. While the Blue Jays are in much better hands with Alex Anthopoulos and company running the show, Halladay’s World Series clock is ticking much quicker than the likelihood that the Blue Jays actually making the post season. But, for a team that had difficulty trading him last season (blame Ricciardi for that one), the little leverage they had is altogether non-existent with Toronto executives publicly stating that Halladay won’t sign with the Blue Jays. For teams like the Dodgers, Yankees, Red Sox, and just about any other team interested in acquiring his services, this is the best development. Now, teams won’t have to back up the truck to land the ace. For Blue Jays’ fans, it is just another bad sign of a long season to come.

Why Give Up So Much?

The Blue Jays are in a precarious situation. They have an unhappy ace who essentially has one foot out the door before the season starts. All signs point towards having to trade the 32-year-old right-hander (who will turn 33 in May). Conceivably, they could hold on to Halladay, be the beneficiaries of another great season and take the two compensation draft picks when he signs with another team next off-season. After all, despite all of the negative publicity that the Blue Jays receive (and received because of former General Manager JP Ricciardi), they remain an organization with a good core of young talent—Adam Lind, Aaron Hill, Travis Snyder, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil, and a host of other young pitchers. With Halladay fronting the rotation for one last season and continued development from the young pitchers, the Blue Jays, depending on some offensive additions, could once again post an 85 win season and finish in third place, a place they finished nine times since 1998. The two compensation picks may, and probably should, turn out to be better players than who they should receive in return if Halladay is traded (assuming other teams act rationally).

Because of the Blue Jays’ public honesty, they are really in no position to drive a hard bargain. Why would a team trade a package comprised of their top-tier talent when they can simply wait a season and sign him directly? After all, any team that Halladay is traded to is going to have to sign an extension. It just doesn’t make sense for an organization to give up their best prospects. The Philadelphia Phillies didn’t do that at the trade deadline and are better off for it now. They now have Cliff Lee and still boast a farm system with the promising Kyle Drabek still there. The same can be said for the Yankees and Red Sox when they bowed out of the Johan Santana sweepstakes. Anthopoulos has a decision whether it’s worth holding onto Halladay for the season or taking a package far below his value, but one that will help the Blue Jays become more competitive in the 2010 and 2011 seasons.

Desirable, but…

The rookie General Manager is in perhaps one of the worst positions any General Manager can be in, let alone a rookie. At first glance, he has a desirable commodity. Halladay is one of the few pitchers who gets mentioned when discussing the elite pitchers of the game. After all, he has thrown at least 220 innings during every complete season he has participated in. Pitching quite frequently against some of the best offensives the Game has to offer, Halladay excels. He even finishes his games as he has led the league in complete games in four of the previous six seasons. Making him even more desirable, Halladay has managed to increase his strikeout rate in each of the previous two seasons. He has struck out 7.5 and 7.8 batters per nine innings in those seasons. He has also been quite healthy in terms of his arm and shoulder. Roy Halladay is one of the few pitchers who can transform a team from possible contender to playoff favorite. The Blue Jays, because of JP Ricciardi’s mishandling, blew their chance at top value last June. Now, the downside of Halladay gets scrutinized.

Although Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game, there is still a downside. As mentioned, he will be 33 years old next season. That’s not old in the grand scheme of things, but a team will be committing to a long-term deal with a pitcher who has thrown 2,046.2 innings entering next season. This isn’t the same type of acquisition like the Mets acquiring Johan Santana or the Yankees signing CC Sabathia. Yes, both pitchers received long-term contracts, but both were south of 30 years old when signed and both are still at least one season away from the 2,000-inning mark. Although Halladay is infinitely more talented than former Major Leaguer Kevin Brown, there is some similarity of the circumstance. Brown, like Halladay, was dominant at ages 31, 32, and 33, posting ERA’s of 1.89, 2.69, and 2.38. He also had pitched over 2,100 innings before getting that seven year, $105 million dollar contract. Surely, the economy will reign in that type of free spending, but Brown has served as the poster child of the ills of long-term contracts. Brown had inherent flaws that were warning signs (violent delivery, poor makeup). Halladay does not, but there is a risk. That risk is further complicated when giving up a gaggle of prospects in order to acquire his services.

With all of that, Anthopoulos now has to decide the best course of action. He won’t likely get a package of top prospects; he may not even get one true “no-doubter”.  If he were to hang on to Halladay for the season, he will receive two draft picks, two picks he can make on his own. If he were to hold on to Halladay until the trade deadline, perhaps he can get a couple of desperate teams to sell the farm for a half season of Roy Halladay (although that seems unlikely). At best, he could get a package similar to the one Mark Shapiro got in exchange for Cliff Lee; it should be noted that Lee was not an impending free agent when acquired. Or, he can run the risk of making a Johan Santana type trade where the Twin received a couple of d-level prospects in exchange for one of the best pitchers in the game. In the current climate, the latter seems very likely if a trade is executed.

Beneficiaries

If the Blue Jays are intent on trading Halladay this offseason, the competition benefits. For his part, Anthopoulos has played the situation well so far as he stated that Halladay could be traded within the division. Obviously, he is trying to drive up the price, hoping to play on the Yankees-Red Sox paranoia (not likely as both are far too smart). But, even a team like the New York Mets can benefit. The Mets, who have one of the worst farm systems in the game, don’t have the prospects to complete a Halladay trade, even if it were on a discount. But, they could take Vernon Wells (and his poor contract) along with Halladay in the trade that would allow them to acquire Halladay without the presence of even secondary prospects.

Closing Thoughts

There is no doubt that Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game. Even at 33 years old, he is an elite pitcher. A long-term contract is a risk, but he has proven durable and consistent during his career. But, considering the Blue Jays feel compelled to trade him and that he has no intention of re-signing, trading for him seems unwise, unless he comes at a bargain. If Anthopoulos can get anything that resembles a group of elite prospects for his ace, he should be given the Executive of the Year Award as soon as the ink is dry on the trade. It just doesn’t make sense for a team to give up its best assets when Halladay can be acquired a season later for nothing other than money. As good as he is, his long-term viability is a risk considering his age. For just money, that risk is worth taking. For money and prospects, that risk seems far too great.

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