Halladay Unlikely to be in Pinstripes in 2010

It seems that with every offseason, a new name emerges as the one player who dominates all of the rumor mills. Two years ago it was Johan Santana and the Minnesota Twins’ failed bidding war. Last year, it was CC Sabathia who eventually signed with the Yankees despite all reports that he wanted no part of New York and preferred to live on the West Coast. This year, it is Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Roy Halladay who is single handedly keeping every rumor mill alive in an eerily quiet hot stove season. With reports of Halladay’s demand of being traded before spring training, many are speculating that a deal will get done soon. Just like the Johan Santana sweepstakes a couple of years ago, many opine that the Yankees and Red Sox will be fighting over the 33 year old’s services. It makes for great copy and it certainly helps the Blue Jays drive a hard bargain, but reality may say otherwise just as it did with Santana. If one was to take Yankees’ General Manager Brian Cashman at his word, the chances of Roy Halladay becoming a Yankee are non-existent, despite AJ Burnett’s rumored pleas. While it has been somewhat of a joke for years, Cashman told a group of fans this week, “We are definitely going to reduce payroll, I can guarantee you that.”

A Budget? Really?

The New York Yankees and the word budget aren’t normally put into the same sentence, but it seems that the Yankees are no longer the George Steinbrenner teams of recent decades. Yes, the Yankees did spend over $400 million dollars on three players last offseason and will have four players making over $20 million dollars in 2010. But, if one rewinds just a season ago, one would recall that Brian Cashman had to get the Mark Teixeira deal approved. Originally, the Yankees were going to be happy with Nick Swisher at first base after investing heavily in their top two starters. Cashman convinced the more business minded Hal Steinbrenner that adding Teixeira was a perfect fit because he was the right player (young, powerful, defensive minded) and that the 2010 free agent class would be remarkably thin. “Mark is one of those rare guys that becomes available every 10 years or so”, explained Cashman who convinced the owner to extend the budget in 2009. But, with Teixeira’s contract on the books, the idea of reducing payroll becomes tougher.

Thus far, the Yankees have $170 million dollars committed to 13 players (three of those players—Kei Igawa, Andrew Brackman, and Juan Miranda—don’t figure to make the Major League roster). That doesn’t include raises for Phil Hughes, Melky Cabrera, Joba Chamberlain, David Robertson or for any addition to the roster like a starting leftfielder (although Cashman believes that Austin Jackson is ready to be a Major Leaguer) and at least one starting pitcher. Even if the Yankees just wanted to match their 2009 payroll of $206 million, it would prove to be difficult. Considering they have 15 rosters spots to fill with approximately $30 million to do it with, the options seem limited. Adding another long-term, big salary player like Roy Halladay only complicates matters. In 2011, the Yankees have $136 million dollars committed to just eight players. That number is going to rise quite a bit as Derek Jeter will be a free agent. Considering that Brian Cashman said, “Derek will finish his career with the Yankees, there’s no doubt about it”, the Yankees may have the highest payroll in the game spent on just those nine players. In 2012, it gets a bit worse—the Yankees will have $97 million dollars (plus Jeter’s contract) for seven players (eight counting Jeter). What’s the point? The point is that unless the Yankees want to have a $250 or $300 million dollar payroll (they don’t), they cannot afford to give out more long-term deals, especially to 33-year-old pitchers with quite a bit of mileage on his arm. Cashman and the Hal Steinbrenner do not want to have even a $200 million dollar payroll let alone a $300 million dollar one.

It Starts with Andy

Cashman has been quite public with the idea that Andy Pettitte is the number one priority this offseason. If Pettitte wants to pitch (he is always year to year), the Yankees want him back. Last season, Pettitte signed a $5 million dollar contract that was incentive laden. Coming off of a very good 2009 season and a post-season in which he won every series clinching game, Pettitte likely deserves a guaranteed contract in the $8 to $10 million dollar range. Considering the dearth of quality pitchers in that price range and the Yankees’ desire to bring Pettitte back, it seems that it will only be a matter of time before Pettitte returns. With Pettitte back in the fold, the Yankees have two rotation openings. Heading into spring training, Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Alfredo Aceves will work as starters. Cashman gambled on his young pitchers two seasons ago and got burned as Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy didn’t win a game and the Yankees missed the playoffs. But, Chamberlain won’t have his innings restriction problem this season which will likely lead to a more consistent performance. Hughes went through a year in the bullpen where he saw he could dominate hitters. Aceves could be a fourth starter on most teams in the league. If anything, the Yankees have three pitchers who could be viable starters or dominant relievers, especially in the case of Phil Hughes.

If Pettitte returns, the Yankees could still look to the free agent wire to add another starter at a more cost-efficient level. There are certainly low-risk, high-reward pitchers available. There are even veterans such as Jarrod Washburn or Pedro Martinez who could come at a significantly cheaper salary than Halladay’s $16 million dollar 2009 salary. Because Sabathia fronts the rotation, there is no imminent need to acquire another ace. The story does change, however, if Pettitte decides to retire. With just two reliable starters, Cashman could then be forced to explore a Halladay trade more seriously. The need for another pitcher who is a practical guarantee for 200 innings would be necessary. Even then, Halladay may not be the desired pitcher.

Value of the System

When Brian Cashman almost left the Yankees a couple of seasons ago, the main reason was control. The Yankees were a fractured organization with a group in New York and a group in Tampa seemingly at odds with each other. Cashman’s threat to leave worked as he seized control of the organization. The Yankees are better for it as Cashman has utilized the same methods that Theo Epstein, Billy Beane, and Mark Shapiro have employed to build a deep farm system (although Cashman never gets his just due for his intelligence and performance in this regard because of his payroll). Cashman values his prospects just as much as Epstein does. He didn’t make a trade for Johan Santana because he felt Chamberlain and Hughes would be assets. He was right; Hughes became their most valuable setup man this season. Chamberlain, for all of his criticism, made 31 starts at the age of 23 (sometimes his youth is forgotten because of the big splash he made two years ago as a reliever). While his innings were severely limited and he struggled with control, the majority of teams around the game would’ve improved if they had a pitcher who produced in the same manner Chamberlain did.

He doesn’t like to give up prospects; smart General Managers really don’t like doing that. Sure, a team gets one really good player, but organizational depth is so important in today’s game. With teams being more and more careful with injuries, the need to have players in the system ready to fill-in is even greater. “We had that last season. Both of our catchers got hurt so Cervelli came up and filled in. When our bullpen struggled, we had the Robertson’s and Aceves’s and, of course, Phil Hughes come up and take over,” explains Cashman, “one of the big keys about getting Mark (Teixeira) was that it hurt the Red Sox who really needed a bat. It forced them to trade a group of players for Victor Martinez.” Epstein had little choice as the Red Sox offense was really struggling, but one could bet he would’ve preferred to have simply signed someone rather than ravaging his pitching depth. Unless the Blue Jays really lower their demands for Halladay, one shouldn’t bet with Cashman parting with his catcher of the future or any of his starting pitchers. Why would he? He could just sign Halladay next season just like he did with Sabathia (again, if money isn’t an issue)? He could just go and sign John Lackey.

The Only Way…

There is really just one way that a Halladay trade (and subsequent extension) would work. That is if ownership decided that they wanted to pay the price. There are some special cases where ownership makes direct deals. Cashman cited the Alex Rodriguez contract as one of those cases as he could never recommend a contract that grand. If the Steinbrenner family wants Halladay, they can most assuredly pay for him. The payroll can be $250 to $300 million dollars; the Yankees can more than support that figure. It wouldn’t be wise to give up any of their top prospects, but ownership could, conceivably, make that decision.

Closing Thoughts

Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the game. A team that acquires his services does get better; there is no doubt. But, the supposed bidding war between the Yankees and Red Sox is likely just hype. Theo Epstein values his minor league system and already boasts a deep pitching staff. Another starter would be a luxury, not a necessity. While the Yankees have a greater need for another starter, there are other less costly options that would leave the Yankees organization in much better health. If Brian Cashman has his way, he would opt for the health rather than the splash. He would be right, just as he was two winters ago.