Phillies Upgrade with Doc; Jays Get Some Value

Roy Halladay got his wish after all; for the next four seasons he will be fronting a rotation for a perennial pennant contender. The long awaited four team trade (with Oakland jumping in at the last minute) was finally completed yesterday, sending Roy Halladay to the Philadelphia Phillies for three prospects, pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis d’Arnaud, and outfielder Michael Taylor (who was subsequently traded to the Oakland A’s for infielder Brett Wallace). The Phillies also sent Cliff Lee to Seattle for three prospects. For the Blue Jays, it marks an end to a six-month drama where the organization’s young General Manager Alex Anthopoulos got done what his predecessor could not. Anthopoulos was able to pry away three of the Phillies’ top four prospects in exchange for the 32-year-old right-hander. It was something the Phillies were reluctant to do during the season, but Anthopoulos was able to get more value for Halladay than the Twins received for Johan Santana a couple of seasons ago. For the Phillies, they get the one player they have lacked over the past few seasons. The Phillies get one of the few true number one pitchers in the game in Roy Halladay. Despite the fact that they decided to trade Cliff Lee to the Mariners in order for the deal to work out financially, they are still infinitely better than they were last season or even the season before. That may be a bit scary to the rest of the National League.

Phillies get their Ace

The word “ace” gets thrown around quite a bit when discussing starting pitchers. In reality, there are very few true aces around the game. Surely, there are many number one starters in the game. Pitchers like Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander, Jake Peavy, Adam Wainwright, and Chris Carpenter are legitimate number one pitchers, as many teams will have a difficult time matching up with them. However, there is an elite group of pitchers who can be classified as an ace. Pitchers such as Tim Lincecum, CC Sabathia, Felix Hernandez, Zack Greinke, and Johan Santana can be considered aces as they generally pitch deeper into games with more consistency and dominance. Halladay is a member of the latter group.

His new General Manager, Ruben Amaro, agrees. “Without question, Roy is one of the top pitchers in the game today,” said Amaro. “He has the talent, professionalism and makeup that embody what we look for in players and we’re very happy to have him in a Phillies uniform for at least the next four seasons.”  His new GM is quite correct as Halladay has a legitimate case for being labeled the best pitcher in the game. Since establishing himself as a full-time starter in 2002, Halladay has more wins, more complete games, and more shutouts than anyone in Baseball. More impressively, he leads all pitchers with 930.1 innings pitched during that span. While that last figure could be a red flag for overuse, Halladay seems to be the exception as he continues to put together great season after great season. Last season, for a poor Blue Jays team, Halladay finished 17-10 with a 2.79 ERA in 32 starts. He led the league with nine complete games and four shutouts in his 234 innings of work. His past two seasons have been even more dominant as he has developed into a strikeout pitcher. After averaging 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings from 2002 through 2007, he has averaged 7.7 strikeouts per nine in the last two seasons.

Although the three year, $60 million dollar extension is somewhat of a risk for a 32-year-old pitcher with a ton of innings on his resume, Halladay is aging well. He is still a groundball pitcher who has a 2.26 groundball to fly ball ratio since 2002. Last season, he elicited 12.2 swings and misses on pitches thrown in the strike zone. While he did give up 22 long balls last season, the most since 2003, he did decrease his walk total for the third consecutive season. Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind is that the back of Halladay’s baseball card has been compiled in the American League East, not only the toughest division in the game, but also the most offensive division. He has started 73 games against the Red Sox and the Yankees, adding 58 more against the Orioles and Rays. In all, 131 of his 287 starts have been against the tough American League East. A move to the National League should help Halladay much in the way it did for Johan Santana and Javier Vazquez.

The popular question is whether or not the Phillies are any better because of the trade. On the Major League level, they are most definitely better, especially for the short term. It would have been better to keep Cliff Lee for the season for the pair to cruise through the National League to yet another World Series, but considering the Phillies received prospects to offset their loss (although a lesser package than the one they gave up for Halladay), the deal essentially becomes Halladay for Lee. If one looks at the big picture rather than simply the last two seasons, the Phillies are a much better team with Halladay. With Halladay comes dependability; Halladay has made at least 32 starts in each of the past four seasons. He ran into some injury issues in 2004, having gone the disabled list twice with shoulder issues. Shoulder issues have yet to manifest since. He broke his leg in 2005 on a Kevin Mench line drive. Otherwise, he’s pitched at least 220 innings in six of his eight seasons as a starter. Cliff Lee has been on the better pitchers in the game for the past two seasons, winning the Cy Young Award in 2008 and pitching one of the more impressive post-season games in 2009. But, before 2008, he had been, for the most part, a league average pitcher. He missed time in 2007 with an oblique injury, which explains his poor season. The 31 year old seems to have gotten it all together. However, even at his best, Halladay is better. Lee has been very good since 2008, worthy of being called a number one starter. Halladay has thrown more innings, had a better ERA, pitched more complete games, walked less, and struck out 60+ more batters. It’s easy to remember Lee as the pitcher who dominated during the playoffs, but in reality, he is a notch below Halladay. The Phillies give up a very good pitcher to get a great pitcher. They are a better team with Halladay able to beat any opponent thrown at him.

It’s A Start

One had to feel sorry for the Blue Jays’ General Manager Alex Anthopoulos as he inherited an ugly situation caused by JP Ricciardi’s inability to trade Halladay last July. Anthopoulos played the situation well; he seemingly engaged the Yankees and Red Sox. He spoke with the Angels. Learning from the Johan Santana situation a couple of off-seasons ago, Anthopoulos traded Halladay for some highly regarded prospects relatively quickly. The key to the deal earlier this season was 22-year-old Kyle Drabek. Evidently, Anthopoulos had the magic touch as Amaro included him this time around. Drabek figures to begin the season at double-A after making 23 starts for the Phillies’ double-A squad. Split between A-ball and double-A, Drabek compiled a 12-3 record with a 3.19 ERA in 158 innings. He allowed 141 hits, 50 walks, and 150 strikeouts. He is just 6’0’ and 185 pounds and has already had Tommy John Surgery, which hurts his reputation as many are questioning his durability. Many still view him as a potential top of the rotation starter, but some scouts are beginning to wonder whether or not he projects more as a number three starter. The Blue Jays are betting on the former; they have to be right, as Drabek’s career will likely be the true evaluation of the trade. The organization held out trading arguably the best pitcher in the game for Drabek (and, obviously, others). They have to be right.

Travis d’Arnaud is said to be one of the better defensive catching prospects in the game. He has been generally regarded as the fourth best prospect in the Phillies’ farm system. The 21 year old catcher will probably start 2010 in double-A. 2009 showed the potential and just how far he needs to come before being Major League ready. In 126 games, the 6’2”, 200 pound right-handed hitting catcher hit .255/.319/.419 with 13 homeruns and 71 RBI. He added an astounding 38 doubles. The problem? As with most young hitters, d’Arnaud suffers from poor plate discipline and pitch selection. There is no denying his talent, but he is at least two or three seasons away from being an option in Toronto. He’s their catcher of the future for sure, but there is quite a bit of development needed.

Anthopoulos made perhaps his most debatable move when he traded the third player received, Michael Taylor, to the A’s for Brett Wallace. Taylor is a 6’6”, 250 pound outfielder who seems to have quite a bit of tools. The 23 year old has dominated the minor leagues during his three years as a professional. Last season, split between double-A and triple-A, Taylor hit .320/.395/.549 with 20 homeruns, 84 RBI, and 21 stolen bases. He’s a hitter probably needs another year at triple-A, but it wouldn’t be a stretch to see him in a Major League outfield in 2010. Instead, Anthopoulos shipped him to Oakland (who desperately needed an power hitting outfield prospect) for Wallace. Brett Wallace has gone through the minor leagues as a third baseman, but is widely regarded as either a Major League first baseman or designated hitter. While his defense can be questioned, his offensive potential is vast. The 22 year old has also impressed on each level, scorching the Minors in his two seasons for a career total of .305/.384/.475 with 28 homeruns and 99 RBI in 734 at bats. This swap looks to be more of a positional thing as the Blue Jays view Wallace as their first baseman of the future while the A’s have a greater need in the outfield. Both players are talented, but Anthopoulos does make a daring trade; If Taylor turns out to be the better player, he will have downgraded the value he received for Halladay.

Closing Thoughts

There is no way to say that the Blue Jays got better because of this trade; they didn’t. They won 75 games last season and traded away their best player. None of the players received will help in 2010. With the Baltimore Orioles getting better quickly, the Rays still a very good team, and the Red Sox and Yankees slugging it out, things may get ugly in Toronto in 2010. But, Anthopoulos gets a good group of prospects who could be key contributors to the Blue Jays for the next six to eight years. With the world knowing that Halladay wanted to be traded and that there was no way he was re-signing with Toronto, Anthopoulos does get value. His first major trade can be called a success as he had little choice.

The Phillies, despite downgrading their farm system, do become a better team with Halladay instead of Lee for 2010. Halladay will allow Manager Charlie Manuel to rest his thin bullpen more often during the year and provide his normal, consistent excellence. The Phillies are better for the short-term with small collateral damage to the future. But, Halladay is one of those rare pitchers that is worthy of such a cost.