Mets’ Minaya Should Follow Cashman’s Lead

Many Baseball cities around the world may not fully understand the pressure of having a team in New York. With the Yankees winning their 27^th World Series title, it not only puts more pressure on them to win another, but it puts a target squarely on the back of their cross-town little cousin, the New York Mets. With the exception of a brief period in the mid-1980’s, the Mets have always been that second-class citizen with a loyal yet pessimistic fan base. That pessimism has been fostered by an organization that has made either the poor choice or the cheaper choice. As always, there is a mixture of truth as the organization has made poor choices, both talent-wise and money-wise, which has caused the fan’s jadedness. This offseason is one of the more pressure packed time periods for the Mets’ franchise. They are coming off of a terribly disappointing season, one that culminated in their two biggest rivals battling it out in the World Series. There is a cry to make sweeping changes and to spend large sums of money to bring in a power hitting left fielder, bolster the rotation, and find another bat at first base. While it is never advisable to follow the cross-town rival’s plan, in this case, the New York Mets should watch Brian Cashman as he navigates the Yankees through this off-season. Yes, the Mets should follow the Yankees’ plan this season.

Cashman’s Grand Plan

Brian Cashman has publicly stated many times that he is going to reduce the Yankees’ payroll. They will still have the highest payroll in Baseball, but it will no longer be of the $200 million variety. It is the absolute perfect year to make such changes for a variety of reasons. None of them have anything to do with the 27^th World Series title. First, Cashman had the foresight to see the big picture; this year’s crop of free agents leave much to be desired. With Chone Figgins and John Lackey headlining the free agent class in terms of value for expected production, he wisely signed Mark Teixeira in addition to CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett last winter. He understood that players like Jason Bay and Matt Holliday would command big money deals and will likely fail to produce to reach the value of their respective contracts.

This off-season, the Yankees have let World Series’ heroes Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon leave and have acquired centerfielder Curtis Granderson via trade and have agreed to a one-year, $5.5 million dollar contract with Nick Johnson. While many were waiting for the Yankees to compromise with Johnny Damon or flex their financial muscle to bring in Holliday or Bay, Cashman has chosen to remodel cheaply and more efficiently. Bringing in a Nick Johnson gives the Yankees’ a number two hitter who, when healthy, gets on base slightly over 40 percent of the time for his career (.402 to be precise). Damon, who was asking for at least $5 million more than Johnson (his demands were even more before the news of the impending deal with Johnson) and for a longer term, has a career .355 OBP (.367 in his four seasons with the Yankees). That’s good, but Johnson’s addition in the lineup will have a positive impact on the Yankees’ offense. He’ll have a positive impact at a cheaper rate, no long-term commitment, and without demands of playing time. The budget remodeling makes the Yankees better for 2010, but puts them in even better position for the long-term. It’s another example of Brian Cashman seeing the big picture, much like he did last season and or even two winters ago when he passed on unloading his farm system for Johan Santana. He simply could’ve re-signed Matsui and Damon on sheer goodwill or brought in that expensive bat, but all of those moves would’ve hamstrung the Yankees beyond 2010.

The Yankees can afford to bring in Holliday or Bay, but Brian Cashman knows that it is unwise. Why? A look to next off-season shows much better long-term investments. Joe Mauer may be on that list, although all indications are that the Twins will break the bank to keep Minnesota’s favorite son. But, Carl Crawford will most surely be out there, as will Adam Dunn, Jayson Werth, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Ted Lilly, Brandon Webb, and JJ Hardy. With those headliners as well as veterans like Lance Berkman, Carlos Pena, and David Ortiz potentially available, the free agent market will have a depth unlike the past couple of off-seasons. Instead of making a poor investment this off-season, Cashman has made the decision to invest cheaply this season and likely use that savings next season to acquire his long-term left-fielder. Look for Carl Crawford to be his number one priority as he will fill the number two spot in the order in 2011 that Damon occupied last season and Johnson will occupy in 2010. Instead of clogging left field with a player who will be overpaid, the Yankees will keep their options open so they can be better equipped in 2011.

This is hardly a new concept as the Boston Red Sox continually operate this way, opting for shorter term deals rather than commit to many years. Jason Bay is a prime example as the Red Sox have signed Mike Cameron, a superior defender, to a low-cost, two-year contract rather than give Bay the five or six years he is demanding despite Bay’s 2009 performance. Smaller market teams like the Indians, A’s, and Twins have employed this concept for years. The danger is that now the large market teams are using these smart methods, negating the one advantage cash-strapped teams once held. Now, the Yankees not only have the money, but they have the smart decision makers as well.

Mets Must Follow Cashman’s Lead

One of the worst things that could be said about the Mets is that they seem to not have a plan. In year’s past, their fans would argue that the team would make moves just to compete for the back page headlines with the Yankees. They have been often ridiculed for trying to copy the Yankees yet being unsuccessful. A team must always act in its best interest, but in this case, Omar Minaya and the Mets would be wise to see the big picture like Brian Cashman or Theo Epstein does. The cry is that the Mets must sign Jason Bay (or Matt Holliday) and upgrade their rotation. They could’ve used John Lackey, but they evidently felt there was no chance.

The Mets are in a bad predicament. Not only were they embarrassed on the field in 2009, but they were probably worse off the field with the Tony Bernazard situation and the aftermath of Omar Minaya insulting reporter Adam Rubin. They are in need of good publicity, which makes this off-season even more dangerous. If they hold true to the headline lusting reputation, a signing of Bay is imminent. But, that is precisely the wrong thing to do.

Jason Bay is a fine player. In his seven Major League seasons, he’s hit 30 or more homeruns in four times. He has a career batting line of .280/.376/.519; he flourished in the rough environment of Boston. But, he is looking for a six-year commitment. His demands will likely go down as the Boston and the Seattle Mariners have both filled their openings with other players. It seems that the Mets are the only team remaining. It should speak volumes that the Red Sox did not want to give Bay a long-term contract. He’s regressed defensively and, although he is a power hitter, his power doesn’t project to last into his mid to late 30’s. Moving him to Citi Field may work for two or three seasons. But, as he hits 34,35, or 36 years old, he will likely be overpaid for the production given. He’s not athletic like Crawford and he is three years older. That the Mets are said to be bidding against themselves only further illuminates their reputation for doing business to collect the headlines. Yes, Bay will improve them for next season, an average left fielder could do that. But, the long-term investment doesn’t make sense. Someone like Carl Crawford or Adam Dunn (who they should’ve signed last off-season) makes much more long-term sense. It’s a case of not seeing the big picture.

Big Picture Doesn’t Mean Forget 2010

Seeing the big picture doesn’t preclude the Mets from competing in 2010. First, the Mets are banking on the healthy returns of their talented players. Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Johan Santana are all returning from injury. David Wright is returning after his worst season as a professional. The Mets are betting on healthy seasons from each. It is a good bet, despite popular opinion. Prior to last season, the Mets were expected to contend. Surely, the pitching disappointed and the injuries took a major toll, but there is still talent despite all of the pessimism. It is amazing how a series of bad events can erase facts. But, they are far from a perfect team. Fans are correct that something needs to be done. They do need an everyday left fielder so Angel Pagan can assume the fourth outfielder role, a role in which he can thrive. They do need another starter to ensure at least league average innings. They could use a first baseman to either be an everyday starter or to platoon with Daniel Murphy. The fans are correct with those desires. None of those, however, have to be filled with a poor contract. The market is dictating that. It’s up to Omar Minaya to make sense of the market and withstand any negative publicity for not landing the name. Because he works in New York, the reaction will be strong, but winning will vindicate him. Brian Cashman was skewered for failing to land Johan Santana and for the Yankees missing the playoffs. Now, after the public caught up with his plan, he is heralded.

Leftfield can be addressed cheaply. Their first option is to look at the man who has been booted from the Bronx. Johnny Damon may be grandstanding for a three or four year deal, but no team will give it to him. He may be the Bobby Abreu of this free agent class (in case you forgot—Abreu signed a one year, $5 million dollar contract last off-season after receiving zero multi-year offers). Damon may have to settle for a one-year contract and hope the market is better next offseason. After all, Abreu did get a two-year contract this year. For one season, Damon is an above average bridge to a long-term leftfielder. He fits perfectly in the second spot in the batting order behind Jose Reyes. His power will be cut by Citi Field, but he gets on base, has gap power, and can still run. His defense is a big negative, but Angel Pagan can be his late inning caddy during those double switches that National League loves to tout. If Damon isn’t desirable, there are more creative options. A platoon of Jack Cust and Jonny Gomes would be quite productive. Neither should receive a multi-year deal. Marcus Thames could succeed in a platoon. Ryan Garko would be a great platoon-mate in the outfield or at first base with Daniel Murphy. The idea is simple; the Mets can receive adequate production, an increase from last season, from a one-year stopgap. Bay or Holliday may outperform the cheaper option; but, considering that there are better options next season, a productive stopgap is a better idea.

On the pitching side, the Mets can look at a Jason Marquis on a year contract. He throws innings and may be aided by the ballpark and by the fact he would be pitching at home. They can take a low risk on Erik Bedard or Mark Mulder (Ben Sheets’ price must come down for him to be included). A veteran like Jarrod Washburn may come on a year contract, so might pitchers like Vicente Padilla or Brett Myers. There are one year options that can help the Mets contend for the playoffs.

Closing Thoughts

It is definitely not a stretch to say that the Mets can compete in 2010. There is that possibility, especially with the Wildcard. Much will have to go right, but healthy returns alone will add to that 70 win total from a year ago. Signing one-year contracts with Johnny Damon, Jack Cust, Jonny Gomes, and/or Ryan Garko won’t guarantee a return to the playoffs or even a winning record. But, neither does signing Jason Bay or Matt Holliday to overpriced, long-term contracts. Both ways give the Mets the same chance of winning. Only one way, however, will allow them to compete this season and truly build next season. If Omar Minaya chooses smart value, he won’t get the headlines he is looking for, but he will have put the Mets organization in a situation to build for the long-term. Brian Cashman did it under heavy scrutiny and succeeded in 2009. Minaya should, for once, emulate his New York counterpart. If he does, the Mets will finally be in a good position for quite some time.

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