Beltran’s Loss May Be Devastating for the Mets

 With the recent controversy surrounding the New York Mets handling of Carlos Beltran’s surgery, many have made the point that Beltran’s loss is not as great as a hypothetical loss of Joe Reyes or David Wright would be. Those who demean Beltran’s worth to the Mets may see his true value when the teams falls into a deep hole while awaiting Beltran’s comeback from surgery.

Beltran has had a like/hate relationship with New York since his arrival in 2005 and he has never been fully embraced by the majority of the fan base and the media. At the time it was signed, Beltran’s $119 million contract was only the tenth valued at over $100 million in baseball history. Many surmised that much of his worth came from a torrid postseason with the Houston Astros in 2004 in which he hit .435 with eight homeruns and 14 RBI in just 12 games. Others were upset with the rumor that his agent, the notorious Scott Boras, offered his client’s services to the cross town New York Yankees for a $20 million discount just before signing with the Mets. A very shaky first season in New York that was marked by sporadic injuries, spotty play, and a nasty collision with teammate Mike Cameron had many New Yorkers questioning the long and short term success of the signing. But through all of his trials in New York, Beltran is one of the best players in the major league and his absence will likely contribute to another disappointing year for the Mets, at least until his return at full strength.

Beltran started his career playing well in New York, with his average never dipping below .280 until the middle of June. Still, the headlines from his first half season in New York were far from glowing. A sampling from the New York Daily News:

BELTRAN HAVING TOUGH TIME CENTERING SELF IN NEW YORK
BELTRAN’S MISPLAYS ARE GLARING
BELTRAN NEEDS TO DELIVER STAR POWER
CARLOS IS A PAIN IN THE LEG. TWEAKS QUAD, THEN BOOTS BALL IN SEVENTH

Beltran finally gave the media and fans what they were craving: a prolonged slump. Beltran’s average dipped from .300 on June 9 to a low of .258, and then finishing at .266. His injuries played a role, as did his crash with Cameron. Whatever the cause of his poor play, Beltran came into 2006 with something to prove. His numbers were astounding and good enough to finish fourth in the NL MVP voting.

 Still, 2006 is best remembered for Beltran ending the NLCS with a backwards K. What he also did that series was bat .296/.387/.667, with three homeruns.

For the following two years Beltran continued his thrashing of National League pitching, posting homer totals of 33 and 27 and RBI totals over 100. Beltran’s defense was as advertised, covering ground in Shea Stadium’s vast centerfield. For most of his time with the Mets, Beltran has been saddled with subpar defensive corner outfielders increasing his responsibilities in the outfield and further adding to his value. Look at the UZR (ultimate zone rating) for the others who patrolled the outfield with Beltran.

Playing alongside the likes of Shawn Green, Moises Alou, Gary Sheffield, and Cliff Floyd makes the centerfielder that much more important throughout the season. For his part, Beltran’s UZR has been most impressive when he is healthy and his legs are strong. Beltran’s defensive prowess is recognized among most fans, but he rightfully gets saddled with two criticisms. First, he plays an extremely deep centerfield. Because of that he needs to utilize his speed on balls hit in front of him which at times can be problematic. Also, Beltran doesn’t always get a great read off of the bat and can take poor routes to balls in the gap or over his head (when he isn’t already playing with his back to the wall). Overall, he plays defense better than most centerfielders, but as his leg injuries pile up he won’t be able to utilize his speed to accommodate the deficiencies of the other outfielders and his issues on balls hit in front of him. Without a full recovery and resurgence of his speed, an outfield of a gimpy Beltran, an awful Jason Bay (UZR for the last three years: -11.5, -18.4, and -13.0), and a subpar Jeff Francoeur, the Mets promise of a team built on speed and defense to play to their park’s dimensions becomes a pipe dream. Beltran’s importance to the Mets’ team defense is almost immeasurable and the effects of his possible defensive demise could hamstring them for the next two years.

The Mets outfield defense has been an area of concern for years. Their cumulative outfield UZR has been close to average or above average during the years that Beltran has been healthy (2006 – 2008), mostly because of his contribution in evening out the poor defense of his mates. In the years that Beltran was not healthy (2005, 2009) and unable to make up for the team’s corner deficiencies, the outfield UZR plummeted.

Beltran’s contract, seemingly excessive at the time, has turned out to have paid for itself. In his MVP like season of 2006 he was paid just $12 million, and in his next two years when he put up similarly spectacular numbers, he was paid $12 million and $18.5 million. His Wins Above Replacement player (WAR) for his Mets career is:

Beltran presence on the field for New York has led to 24 wins more than they would have received if they had another centerfielder. If you convert his wins over replacement into a dollar amount, his value for the 2006 – 2008 seasons was $75 million, for which he was paid only $42.5.

Despite Beltran’s injury woes in 2008 and now into 2009, there is no better all around centerfielder in baseball. Here are the cumulative numbers from 2006 – 2009 for some of the other premiere centerfielders in baseball. Beltran’s rank among the group of five in each category is in bold beneath his numbers.

Matt Kemp

Curtis Granderson

Torii Hunter

Grady Sizemore

Carlos Beltran

Sizemore, who also missed significant time due to injury in 2009, presents the biggest challenge to Beltran’s supremacy going forward, though he is not the complete player that Beltran is just yet. Other young players such as Adam Jones and Nate McLouth may soon make inroads into this group.  

Beltran is still the class of the group, but his absence and the possibility of his decline in several key areas upon his return may very well bury the Mets for this season. A healthy Mets team should be able to compete in the NL East, but Beltran’s presence in the three hole and his superior defense in an outfield already bereft of defensive skill could impact their chances. The team has suffered when he is not playing at his best in the past, and it is not hard to imagine 2010 being one of those years.

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