Twins Add Offense, Payroll; Enter 2010 as Central Favorites
With Orlando Hudson officially signing a one-year contract with the Minnesota Twins, the Twins offseason likely comes to a close. It is an offseason that has been perceived as quite active and successful. While the latter is definitely true, the idea that the Twins were more active this season is a fallacy. The additions of shortstop JJ Hardy, designated hitter Jim Thome, and now Orlando Hudson are certainly name brand acquisitions. However, they are the type of acquisitions that the Twins always make: cheap, low risk additions. Last season, they brought in Joe Crede on a one year, $2.5 million dollar deal. Two years ago, they signed Livan Hernandez to a 1 year, $5 million dollar deal. The Twins will always add players if the money is right. But, this season is different; thanks to their new stadium, the Twins are putting together a much more expensive team.
This offseason, they swapped Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy, a player who struggled last season but has an infinitely better upside than Gomez. Then they added Thome and Hudson on free agent contracts. For the grand total of $11.5 million dollars, the Twins upgraded at shortstop, second base, and the bench. Relatively speaking, the dollar amount is quite low; when considering the fact that all are on one-year deals, the Twins do not have any long-term risk. For the 2010 season, the Twins will have their highest payroll ever (it is already over $90 million dollars before the final few contracts are settled). With their new stadium, Target Field, set to open, the Twins are feeling the financial windfall of a new stadium. Because they play in a relatively weak division where they may already be the best team, and the fact that they are the defending division champions, the offensive additions are tremendous and, most importantly, needed.
As a whole, the 2009 Twins’ offense was quite good. The Twins finished 4th in the American League with 817 runs scored, 3rd with a team batting average of .274, 4th with a .345 OBP, and 7th with a .429 slugging percentage. When one looks a bit deeper, one sees that this was quite an accomplishment. Last season, the Twins’ shortstops hit .261/.307/.372 with just 10 homeruns. Those statistics were actually helped by the midseason addition of Orlando Cabrera who hit .290/.314/.432 in 57 games. Their second basemen performed worse, hitting just .208/.299/.266 with just 2 homeruns. Twins shortstops also committed 24 errors, 4th worst in the Major Leagues (the second basemen were solid with just 7 errors).
Although the Twins could’ve just banked on the goodwill created by the long-term deal that will eventually get done with Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau remaining healthy for the entire season, and the continued success that Delmon Young found at the end of last season, General Manager Bill Smith decided to shore up his weaknesses. Many will complain about the economic climate, but this type of free agent economy plays right into the hands of the small market teams. Good, productive players are now available at an affordable cost. The stars will always get their big contracts, but the solid players like Orlando Hudson are more attainable. For the Twins, that affordability gives them the best offense in their division.
JJ Hardy had a terrible 2009 season. He started the year slow, never really recovered, was sent down to the Minors, took the heat for the lack of team success, and eventually lost his job to Alcides Escobar. The Brewers committed to Escobar for 2010 and beyond, making Hardy irrelevant after his .229/.302/.357 season with just 11 homeruns and 47 RBI. Even with the poor season, Hardy should’ve had more trade value than Carlos Gomez, the speedy centerfielder who proves the theory that one can’t steal first base. While Hardy’s 2009 season was terrible, he is just one year removed from hitting .283/.343/.478 with 24 homeruns. In 2007, he hit .277/.323/.463 with 26 homeruns. Entering his age 27 season, Hardy has more than a puncher’s chance to rebound with the Twins. He won’t spend the season wondering if he is going to lose his job; he likely won’t be needed at the top of the order with Denard Span and Orlando Hudson. He’s in an ideal situation right before he hits the free agent market next winter. A big season could net Hardy a big contract. A conservative projection of .250/.325/.425 batting line with 20 homeruns is quite an improvement over the 2009 shortstop production that the Twins received. He likely does better. Couple the potential for offense with the fact that Hardy has been one of the better defensive shortstops (by most any defensive metrics/standards) and the Twins look to have made a wise decision. Taking a chance on a 27 year old who has produced in the past is always a wise choice. Because it is only one year, the risk is minimal even if Carlos Gomez hits well in Milwaukee.
Hardy’s new double play partner, Orlando Hudson, spent a second consecutive season waiting to sign with a team. Last season, Hudson waited until right before spring training before finding a team. The Dodgers signed Hudson to a $3.38 million contract to be their starting second baseman. At first, the marriage seemed perfect as Hudson hit .283/.353/.426 with 7 homeruns and 48 RBI through the first half, earning an All-Star Game selection. Despite a prolonged slump, Hudson stayed relatively consistent in the second half, finishing the season with a .283/.357/.417 batting line with 9 homeruns and 62 RBI. For some reason, however, Hudson fell into the vast wasteland that is Joe Torre’s doghouse. Once a player finds his way in there, it is hard to get out, despite Torre’s reputation of being fair to all of his players. Ronnie Belliard, a late season acquisition, took over as the starting second baseman, even in the playoffs. Hudson, despite his work ethic, positive influence in the clubhouse, and steady play was removed as a starter with no reason given despite being the better player.
LA’s loss is most definitely Minnesota’s gain as Hudson plays solid defense (although he appears to be losing some range) and has hit .291/.363/.440 with an OPS+ of 106 since 2006. Even more importantly, Hudson switch-hitting ability helps breakup the left-handed heavy top of the Twins’ order with Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel. He’s an ideal fit and will give at least league average production, something the Twins haven’t received in recent seasons from their second basemen.
The signing of veteran Jim Thome is quite significant as the 39-year-old left-handed slugger can still hit. Before being traded to the Dodgers, Thome hit .249/.372/.493 with 23 homeruns in 362 at bats. He willingly went to the Dodgers to be a pinch hitter in the hopes of a World Series berth. While the World Series didn’t work out, one positive came out of Thome’s experience. He didn’t complain about playing time. If everything goes according to plan for the Twins this season, Thome will not be a starter. He probably wouldn’t get more than 300 at bats for the season. He has always been someone with the reputation of being a team guy; last season verified that. One shouldn’t mistake that he is no longer capable of hitter. Last season, Thome hit .262/.383/.498 with 18 homeruns in 271 at bats against right-handed pitchers. If the Twins were to install him as their everyday DH against right handed pitching, he would hit close to 30 homeruns. But, barring injury, Thome won’t be an everyday player with Jason Kubel occupying the DH spot and Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young playing the corner outfield positions.
Thome’s presence gives Manager Ron Gardenhire one thing that Managers of small market teams generally don’t have. He gives Gardenhire a legitimate bench that will have one power hitter on it every night whether it is Thome, Cuddyer, or Young. Because of the payroll limitations of small market teams, the typical small market bench is relegated to the backup catcher, a light hitting middle infielder, and a couple of outfielders. This season, Gardenhire will have Thome in addition to his backup catcher, middle infielder (Nick Punto or Brendan Harris), and outfielder. That one legitimate hitter will be able to pinch hit for their last remaining weakness in the lineup, the third base position. Gardenhire hasn’t had that option in many years. In fact, the 2010 Twins do have their deepest team in decades.
Closing Thoughts
With a repeat performance of league average starting pitching and a stellar bullpen, the Twins have upgraded enough to be considered the favorites to begin the season. They are not the prohibitive favorite as the Tigers and White Sox aren’t that far behind offensively and both may have better pitching.
The 2010 season is a pressure packed season for the Twins. Ownership is committing over $90 million dollars to payroll, something that has never happened. Additionally, Joe Mauer is on the brink of signing a long-term, big money deal. With so many players in the last year of their contracts, the Twins will be forced to make some difficult personnel moves next winter. Even with a new stadium, it is doubtful that their market can support a $90 to $100 million dollar payroll. Twins’ management is clearly trying to win now with the influx of new money. If the marketplace stays true to form, the 2011 Twins will look vastly different because of the payroll limitations Mauer’s deserved contract will put in place. 2010 is their season to try to win. It’s the perfect storm for the Twins: the division isn’t strong, every team has flaws, and they have the most balance. For 2010, the Twins are “all in”; Bill Smith has put the Twins in the best position to win in 2010 and hasn’t put the franchise at risk with poor contracts in the future.
They aren’t a perfect team, but they are the best-constructed team in the division entering the season.
Comments
By Rudy on February 8th, 2010 at 6:51 am
Unfortunately you are probably right. I’m rooting for my Tigers but the Twins offense just got even better. That’s a solid lineup from top to bottom. I just hope the pitching fails and that the loss of home field advantage due to the dump known as the Metrodome will disappear. No more losing balls in that ugly stadium.
By ecp on February 8th, 2010 at 11:06 am
Now if only the Twins could upgrade their rotation from Boring, Bland, Drab, Dull, and Humdrum they would be an interesting team to watch. But as yawn-inducing as that group is, I have to admit they get the job done.