Drawing the Line with Lincecum?

The San Francisco Giants continue to amaze. Last season, they rode an incredible pitching staff led by the two-headed monster of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain supported by a stellar bullpen to 88 victories. The pitching staff held opponents to a .237 batting average (2^nd lowest in the Majors), struck out a Major League leading 8.10 batters per nine innings, and posted a 3.55 ERA (also 2^nd lowest in the Majors). Despite one of the worst offenses in the game, the Giants were able to remain the playoff race until the final days of the season. The 2009 season was promising on many levels. Matt Cain finally broke through and posted his most complete season of his Major League career. Barry Zito became slightly better than league average, a remarkable improvement over the past two seasons. Jonathan Sanchez threw a no-hitter. The bullpen of Brian Wilson, Brandon Medders, Bobby Howry, Jeremy Affeldt, and Sergio Romo all posted above average seasons. It was a season and a performance to build on for 2010.

Except, the Giants did not build. They have been treading water since the last pitch of 2009 was thrown. The main offseason objective was to upgrade the offense. The Giants did add players. They spent a total of $16 million dollars to bring in free agents Aubrey Huff, Mark DeRosa, Bengie Molina, and Juan Uribe. Considering that Molina and Uribe were already part of the Giants’ offensive attack, the Giants only marginally upgraded. DeRosa is a useful player; he’s a lifetime .275/.343/.424 hitter and is capable of playing almost every position on the field. But, a wrist injury derailed DeRosa’s 2009 season and limited him to just a .228/.291/.405 hitter with the Cardinals after a mid-season trade. He has, however, hit 20 homeruns in each of the past two seasons and has driven in at least 72 runs in each year since 2006. At $6 million dollars, he comes at a reasonable cost. Aubrey Huff was brought in for $3 million dollars to be the starting first baseman. Huff, like DeRosa, is a useful hitter with a lifetime batting line of .282./.340/.472, but is also coming off of a terrible second half in which he hit .189/.265/.302 in 106 at bats. Again, Huff can be a league average player. For the past four of the last five seasons, he has been close to league average in terms of production and value.

The Giants do help their team with Huff and DeRosa, but they could have and should have done better. Handing Juan Uribe $3.25 million dollars can be questioned when a player such as Ryan Garko was signed for $550,000 or Ronnie Belliard was signed for $850,000. Even more puzzling, free agents such as Johnny Damon, Jermaine Dye, Russell Branyan, and Hank Blalock remain on the market. All are better bets for 2010 and look as if they are coming at a lower price than DeRosa, Huff, or even Uribe. It is just another example in a long series of strange moves made by a franchise that can afford to do better. A more sure option was needed. The Giants even had the financial wherewithal to acquire a player like Jason Bay who commanded $66 million dollars. If there is ever a team in need of a legitimate middle of the order hitter, it is the Giants. Unfortunately, Sabean failed to acquire one.

While Brian Sabean’s free agent record is quite spotty, the Giants are in the midst of a negotiation even more puzzling; it is one that has the potential to cause the worst type of damage. With an arbitration hearing with two-time Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum on the horizon, the Giants may be causing permanent, long-term damage to their franchise in an effort to save a couple of million dollars.

Being Frugal with the Ace

Essentially, Brian Sabean has handed out contracts to players like Barry Zito, Aaron Rowand, and, of course, to DeRosa and Huff without budgetary restrictions. Instead, the Giants choose to draw a line with their best commodity. Something just doesn’t add up. To be fair, it is a tenuous situation for the Giants. They have a 25-year-old pitcher with just two full seasons of Major League experience. The “problem” for the Giants is that those two seasons yielded two Cy Young Awards and the acknowledgement that Lincecum is the best pitcher in Baseball. A record arbitration award is likely and deserved. No player, position player or pitcher, has come into his first arbitration hearing with Lincecum’s resume. Ryan Howard came close when he was the National League Rookie of the Year and the Most Valuable Player during his second season, but those pale (ever so slightly) to winning two Cy Young Awards. Howard was awarded $10 million dollars in arbitration, a record. Lincecum is asking for more; he is asking for a record $13 million dollars. The Giants are reportedly offering $8 million. For the record, Lincecum made $650,000 last season. The Giants’ offer, although a record offer, comes well short of Lincecum’s value.

Over the past two seasons, Lincecum has compiled a 33-12 record with a 2.55 ERA. In 65 starts (and one relief appearance), he has pitched 452.1 innings, allowed just 350 hits, 152 walks, while striking out 526 (10.5 K/9). Over that span he has compiled a 173 ERA+, a 1.33 groundball to flyball ratio, and has elicited swings and misses on pitches thrown in the strike zone 15 percent of the time. In the past two seasons, he has posted a WAR of 8.2 and 7.9.

The question becomes why the Giants would enter arbitration with their franchise player. Arbitration by its very nature is nasty and can only lead to bad feelings. Essentially, the hearing is an opportunity for the player to make his case (through his agent, of course) while the team lays out all of the negative aspects of a player whether it is on-field performance, health risks, and/or personal problems. Have there been hearings where teams and players get over the ill feelings? Sure, Ryan Howard won his case and has a positive relationship with the Phillies, but why would a team risk ill feelings? In Lincecum’s case, there isn’t one thing the club can argue about on the field. He’s been voted as the League’s best pitcher for two consecutive seasons. He doesn’t have control problems; he doesn’t give up homeruns. He doesn’t have any warning signs that his performance has had a scintilla of luck. That would leave either health or personal. Lincecum isn’t a big man; he does have an unorthodox delivery. Surely the Giants can argue that Lincecum is a health risk. They could also bring up the marijuana charges Lincecum incurred earlier this winter.

Both seem like poor arguments. If the Giants were concerned about health, they would not have allowed him to throw 227 and 225.1 innings during the past two seasons. They would’ve been more careful. The marijuana charges are terrible for a player of his caliber, but it doesn’t seem to be reason enough to discount his performance on the mound. For a $5 million dollars savings, the Giants seem willing to potentially damage a relationship with the best pitcher in the game. Yes, Lincecum is under their control for the next four seasons, but if he continues to pitch on his current level, the Giants are going to be worrying about much more than saving $5 million dollars.

Outside of just giving Lincecum the money for one year, there is really just one solution. The Giants must sign Lincecum to a long-term deal that buys out his arbitration years. The benefits for the Giants are numerous. They can plan a budget without worrying what Lincecum will get through the arbitration process. They may have to pay him $15 million dollars this season, but with one more typical Lincecum season, that $15 million dollars will seem like a bargain.

Closing Thoughts

Signing pitchers to long-term deals is always a risky proposition. It becomes even riskier when the pitcher has just two complete seasons under his belt and has an unconventional delivery. But, there are exceptions to every rule; Lincecum is one of those exceptions. Could he get hurt? Sure he could. But, his chances of getting hurt aren’t as great as his chances of winning a third consecutive Cy Young Award. The Giants may be trying to keep his salary under their control, but the more they push and don’t think of the long-term, the more expensive Lincecum will become.

In fact, seeing the big picture is exactly the medicine for the San Francisco Giants. They are in a division where there is no runaway favorite. Barring a cataclysmic move, the division is up for grabs for the next few seasons. The Giants have a window of opportunity to consistently make the playoffs. Once they are in the playoffs, their chances become greater given their pitching staff. The smart move would be to sign both Lincecum and Cain for the next four years and compete. With young players like Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey just about ready to contribute, they are a team with the aforementioned window of opportunity. Bringing in veterans to supplement the team is fine, but when it comes at the expense of paying their elite talent, it just doesn’t make sense.

Having fiscal responsibility is the key to any organization’s long-term success. Starting that responsibility with Tim Lincecum just doesn’t make sense. $5 million dollars isn’t worth alienating your best player, especially when that savings is less than the cost of one year of Freddy Sanchez. The Giants must settle now and make it a priority to sign their special talent to a long-term deal that will at least carry him through his arbitration years. There is a risk involved, but the financial and emotional risk of not doing so is greater.

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