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2010 Comeback Stories

As the 2010 season is set to kickoff with Pitchers and Catchers reporting next week, one begins to think of all the possibilities. The Rays could overcome both the Yankees and Red Sox to once again return to the World Series. The Mets, despite all of their chaos, could have everything break in their favor. The Mariners are filled with hope as are the Reds, Rockies, Braves, Twins, Tigers, and practically every other not playing Kansas City, Toronto, Washington, and Pittsburgh. Even those cities have the slightest hope that it could be one of those magical seasons. But, team success is only one part of a season as the game of Baseball is really about the players. Fans may root for teams, but they invest in players. To a handful of players, 2010 is a chance to add to the legend like a Pujols, a Jeter, or a Rivera (Mariano, that is). For some, like a Ken Griffey Jr., it is a chance to go out with one final, great moment.

But for a precious few, it is a chance at redemption. That redemption is what makes Baseball great. Fans can root for a favorite to find the proverbial magic once again and reclaim his former status. Alfonso Soriano is clearly a player in decline. However, 2009 marked a steep decline as the 33-year-old hit just .241/.303/.423 with 20 homeruns, 55 RBI, and 9 stolen bases. All of those totals are the lowest since his rookie season of 2001. He will try to prove that when healthy, he is still one of the most dangerous hitters in the game.

A pair of Phillies, Jimmy Rollins and Brad Lidge will try to rebound from a poor 2009. Lidge’s struggles have been well documented; he will look to find some middle ground between his perfect 2008 and his terrible 2009. Rollins may be a surprise to some fans as he did hit 21 homeruns and steal 31 bases. But, Rollins did have a terrible season at the plate, hitting .250/.296/.423 out of the leadoff spot. He will try to regain his 2007 and 2008 form when he was one of the most devastating leadoff hitters in the game.

Francisco Liriano, Brandon Webb, Ervin Santana, and Jose Reyes all return from injuries. Their successful returns are intertwined with their team’s prospective success. David Wright and BJ Upton will try to figure out the reason for their power outages in 2010.

Three players, Grady Sizemore, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Pat Burrell, have a bit more to prove after disastrous 2009 seasons. For them, 2009 was a season of high expectation met with failure. 2010 is a chance to make it right.

Grady Sizemore

Sizemore entered the 2009 season on the cusp of being an elite player. From 2005 through 2008, Sizemore posted an average batting line of .281/.372/.496 while averaging 41 doubles, 8 triples, 27 homeruns, 81 RBI, and 29 stolen bases. Above average production (OPS+ of 128 during that time) and above average defense combined with durability (averaged 160 games per season), made Sizemore one of the most productive players in the game.

2009 was to be the year where Sizemore took the next step to superstardom as a 26 year old. It didn’t work out as a slow start coupled with elbow and abdominal injuries derailed the promising career. In just 103 games, Sizemore posted the worst line of his career, .248/.343/.445, with 18 homeruns and 64 RBI with just 13 stolen bases. His batting average and on base percentage have decreased in each of the last three seasons. But, he was still one of the most productive young hitters in the game. His offseason may have been worse as nude photos were published on the Internet, causing embarrassment. 2010 is truly the year of redemption for Sizemore. Entering his age 27 season, Sizemore will be ready to reclaim his status as one of the best in the game. A reasonable projection of .270/.370/.490 with 25 homeruns and 20 stolen bases can be expected out of the forgotten player. Of course, he is more than capable of doing better.

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Before the 2009 season, Matsuzaka had been one of the better pitchers in Baseball. The Japanese import had a two-year record of 33-15 with a 3.72 ERA in 372.1 innings. He allowed just 319 hits and struck out 8.6 batters per nine innings to go along with his 125 ERA+. After his 18-3, 2.90 ERA 2008 season, Matsuzaka began the 2009 season pitching in the World Baseball Classic for Japan. When Matsuzaka was finished with the WBC, he clearly labored. In eight first half starts, Matsuzaka posted a record of 1-5 with an 8.23 ERA. While he still struck out 8.7 batters per nine innings, he gave up 59 hits and 34 walks in his 35 first half innings. He was placed on the disabled list for the final time with shoulder fatigue and didn’t make it back to September. In the middle of his rehabilitation, Matsuzaka criticized the Red Sox conditioning program causing a minor stir. He did give reason for optimism following his September return. In his four starts, Matsuzaka posted a 3-1 record with a 2.22 ERA in 24.1 innings. He still walked 12 batters, but he was much more successful.

Matsuzaka enters the 2010 season as the Red Sox fourth starter. Obviously, there is less pressure with the presence of John Lackey, but with Boston’s emphasis on pitching and defense (which caused a slight downgrade on offense), the Red Sox’s pennant chances are tied to Matsuzaka’s return to form. To his credit, he has dedicated himself to conditioning this offseason and is looking to come to camp strong. A conservative projection would be 12 to 15 wins and 190 innings pitched. A 3.75 to 4.00 ERA and a 1.400 ERA. For the pitching rich Red Sox, that will be enough to compete. Like Sizemore, he is capable of better. His return gives the Red Sox the deepest rotation in the division.

Pat Burrell

Prior to last season, the Rays inked Pat Burrell to a two year, $15 million dollar deal to be their designated hitter. The deal was widely praised as the small market Rays seemingly improved their offense at a position that the 2008 World Series team clearly lacked. Burrell had been a steady veteran for most of his career; he hit at least 21 homeruns in each of his full seasons. Since 2004, he had posted an on base percentage of at least .365, posting over .388 three times over that span. He was streaky, but his end of season numbers were always consistent. His defense was suspect, but moving the designated hitter role seemed to play to his strength.

But, it didn’t. It could’ve been a rough adjustment to the designated hitter role; some players simply do not like playing half of the game. It could’ve been the change in leagues. It could have been a multitude of things, but whatever it was, Burrell had the worst season of his career in 2009. In 412 at bats, Burrell hit .221/.315/.367 with 14 homeruns and 64 RBI. He has been the subject of trade rumors this winter, but he is still penciled in as the designated hitter heading into spring training with only Willy Aybar or Matt Joyce as potential challengers. With a renewed worth ethic, Burrell is aiming at a return to his career norms. At 33 years old, it is not entirely impossible.  It is also possible that he has lost his skill along with his defense. Spring Training is usually worthless for veterans. In Burrell’s case, it is not.

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